The beginning of the end...

[Shadydan]

Why is it deserved?

15 points in 15 games get managers sacked at this level. Redknapp was sacked after a run of 14 points in 14 games. The wins in this period have been marginal as well as the non wins. That's football. But ultimately 15 games is over a 3rd of a season and its relegation form.

I will say it again, there is no debate, at this level, 15 pts in 15 games gets managers sacked.

I'm not calling for a sacking, just stating a fact.

Needs context, 15 points from 15 games at the start of the season is probably a sacking offence

15 points from 15 games during the midst of a CL run to the final has banked a lot of goodwill and I won't even go on about other circumstances or 'excuses' as some love to call them.

 

[Maske2g]

Clearly there is a debate or he’d be sacked? Something is keeping him in the job.

Not what I said is it. 15 points in 15 games gets managers sacked. It's not a 100% hard and fast rule its a generalisation. But if you look back over time, I'd love to have big money that over 90% of managers lost jobs with a record like that.

In a scenario of less than 3 pts in the next 2 games, I think he goes one way or another.

 

[Maske2g]

Needs context, 15 points from 15 games at the start of the season is probably a sacking offence

15 points from 15 games during the midst of a CL run to the final has banked a lot of goodwill and I won't even go on about other circumstances or 'excuses' as some love to call them.

Here is some context, for those 15 games the team have been largely dreadful even in the wins.

For 6 of the 7 champions league games in the period, we were either dreadful, or dreadful for large spells of the game. Dortmund home and City home being the exception. We were extremely lucky.

And we were lucky that 3 other teams were equally determined to throw away a champions league spot.

Had we not had the rub of the green, and absolutely robbed Ajax and City, and/or finished 5th, imagine how bleak it would be now.

 

[Dougal]

Not what I said is it. 15 points in 15 games gets managers sacked. It's not a 100% hard and fast rule its a generalisation. But if you look back over time, I'd love to have big money that over 90% of managers lost jobs with a record like that.

In a scenario of less than 3 pts in the next 2 games, I think he goes one way or another.

It’s hard to distinguish between hard and fast rules and generalisations when you make such a clear statement as that. And your big money bet needs some qualifiers. Certainly I think he is still in a position where his job should be safe after such a run as he has the ‘credit in the bank’. Some of the better runs he has gone on would also guarantee being cherry picked for a bigger job yet here he is.

 

[Shadydan]

Here is some context, for those 15 games the team have been largely dreadful even in the wins.

For 6 of the 7 champions league games in the period, we were either dreadful, or dreadful for large spells of the game. Dortmund home and City home being the exception. We were extremely lucky.

And we were lucky that 3 other teams were equally determined to throw away a champions league spot.

Had we not had the rub of the green, and absolutely robbed Ajax and City, and/or finished 5th, imagine how bleak it would be now.

If's and but's lucky this lukcy that blah blah.

We are where we are not where we could have been.

 

[dudu]

Here is some context, for those 15 games the team have been largely dreadful even in the wins.

For 6 of the 7 champions league games in the period, we were either dreadful, or dreadful for large spells of the game. Dortmund home and City home being the exception. We were extremely lucky.

And we were lucky that 3 other teams were equally determined to throw away a champions league spot.

Had we not had the rub of the green, and absolutely robbed Ajax and City, and/or finished 5th, imagine how bleak it would be now.

Had we not have "robbed" City lets say, we may very well have gone on to win all the games left in the PL without the distraction and extra psychological and physical stress on the team.

What we do know is that the circumstances surrounding our form at the end of last season and the circumstances surrounding our form at the beginning of this aren't the same.

 

[Dougal]

Here is some context, for those 15 games the team have been largely dreadful even in the wins.

For 6 of the 7 champions league games in the period, we were either dreadful, or dreadful for large spells of the game. Dortmund home and City home being the exception. We were extremely lucky.

And we were lucky that 3 other teams were equally determined to throw away a champions league spot.

Had we not had the rub of the green, and absolutely robbed Ajax and City, and/or finished 5th, imagine how bleak it would be now.

If the wife had a headache I’d only have one kid.

 

[SpartanSpur]

Another interesting point about Fergie. He didn't just change playing staff but he'd bring in new assistant coaches every few years to give the team a new voice and new methods. Something Poch may want to consider.

I don't think Poch will, I think he considers his coaching team to be family.

I think there's a good point in the article about Ndombele and Lo Celso freshening the team up. I think there's a good argument for Dele and Dier bringing some additional freshness and motivation too after injury affected seasons. Rose seems to be struggling for form (unsettled maybe?) but Davies hasn't been ready either. Poch has been a bit unfortunate with the availability of certain players so far to help his cause.

A reconciliation of the Eriksen and Vertonghen situations can only help too. Hopefully once this is all settled everyone can get on the same page and sort this out. Players and Poch can get together after the window closes for a fresh start. Bit like Conte's first season at Chelsea. Maybe a bit of a return to the original tactics that worked so well.

Just hope we get a result in the NLD so we haven't lost too much ground early on.

 

[Maske2g]

It’s hard to distinguish between hard and fast rules and generalisations when you make such a clear statement as that. And your big money bet needs some qualifiers. Certainly I think he is still in a position where his job should be safe after such a run as he has the ‘credit in the bank’. Some of the better runs he has gone on would also guarantee being cherry picked for a bigger job yet here he is.

As I said, I have no opinion one way or the other, but...no smoke without fire. If rumours are true, it doesn't look good. I don't think I can recall a manager who has turned around such a dark patch since Fergie, 28 years ago.

 

[dricha1]

Why is it deserved?

15 points in 15 games get managers sacked at this level. Redknapp was sacked after a run of 14 points in 14 games. The wins in this period have been marginal as well as the non wins. That's football. But ultimately 15 games is over a 3rd of a season and its relegation form.

I will say it again, there is no debate, at this level, 15 pts in 15 games gets managers sacked.

I'm not calling for a sacking, just stating a fact.

Well twitter or other social media gives people at their keyboards the opportunity to add 2 + 2 and come up with 5. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle and without specifics from ITK’s or informed journalists it as all guesswork.

Anyone can see that all is not rosy just from the demeanour of the players and the manager. The reasons for that we may never know and as you rightly say 15pts from 15 games suggests this goes further back than this summer. But it could simply be that a lack of transfers last summer came back to bite us hard from February onwards, the start of this season we’ve had key players missing/dropped for whatever reason.

I’ve said before, Poch is an emotional guy, bit of a diva. His press conferences lurch from blind optimism to doom and gloom in an instant. This contributes to the fans unrest, but may also be how he prefers to operate these days?

 

[Dougal]

I think there's a good point in the article about Ndombele and Lo Celso freshening the team up.

I keep forgetting about Sessegnon too. What’s that about?

 

[Maske2g]

If the wife had a headache I’d only have one kid.

OK, then lets trust our future down to luck alone.....see how it goes....

Ultimately, with some unbelievable luck from the group stage to the city game, we still managed to finish 2nd.

 

[brendanb50]

Couple of great posts there. My one concern is whether Poch really has the heart for it at this moment in time. He was getting increasingly tetchy throughout our prolonged dip in form last season and then went into full blown euphoria at the CL quarter and semi final stages, and then into full on sulk after the final defeat. It all seemed very bi-polar.

The pattern has continued with a poor start to the season and all the transfer shenanigens which seem to have upset him, when he really should be enthused by the fact that Levy has delivered the 3 players he most wanted. That seems to be overshadowed by whatever issues are going on behind the scenes. As I've said before, elite managers take this stuff in their stride and if that's where Poch thinks he is, he needs to shape up and get the team motivated and firing on all cylinders. He needs to stop all the cryptic press conference bullshit which is doing as much to rock the boat as anything else and show some of the loyalty he displayed when Levy left him high and dry time and again in the transfer market.

Yep, he seems a bit pissed at the moment. I as you've stated, the contract situations may well have tarnished what was a very good window for us and left him with a couple of frustrating issues in the squad to resolve.

I agree, he needs to resolve the friction and generate some enthusiasm within the squad. As i noted in a previous post i think the training the squad does needs to be separate from the contract issues. If the player is training hard, then they deserve a look. If they have downed tools a bit, then i fully back Poch in leaving them out of the squad. It's all speculation on our part as to where these individual situations are but it's on him to build bridges in the short term, for the greater good of the squad if nothing else.

A dream scenario is him winning them over between now and xmas and perhaps getting a gentlemen's agreement in place for a new contract. I.e. signing an extension on improved terms but with a get out if the right offer comes along. I know we don't do release clauses but something less formal would suit if these players have a real desire to go.

 

[Maske2g]

If's and but's lucky this lukcy that blah blah.

We are where we are not where we could have been.

And where we are, is in the shit. Even with luck, we won nothing, and are in turmoil. SO lets not be blinkered by the fact we ponced 2 wins in the champions league, because that is not representative of our current ability. And of those 3 teams around us who also shit the bed, you can have your house that at least one of them will have a better season.

 

[SpartanSpur]

I keep forgetting about Sessegnon too. What’s that about?

Sessegnon has a hammy and probably isn't going to be a bonafide starter straight away. Will be used down the left side as a sub/rotation option. At LB I do think Davies would have played more as I think Rose has been a bit poor, likely due to having an uncertain future.

 

[Dougal]

OK, then lets trust our future down to luck alone.....see how it goes....

Ultimately, with some unbelievable luck from the group stage to the city game, we still managed to finish 2nd.

You seem to go very hard on our good luck and not so much on our bad. We gave City 2 good games in the CL. Lucas hat trick wasn’t luck. It’s was exciting, entertaining, nail biting, but it was a Poch/Levy signing living up to his potential. Just as much as any player who scores against us does. This complete dismissal of all the positive things we’ve achieved and the incessant highlighting of the negative is really only self-serving to a narrative that we lost to Newcastle and people have jettisoned the fragile amount of patience they hold to have a moan while we’re down.

 

[dudu]

And where we are, is in the shit. Even with luck, we won nothing, and are in turmoil. SO lets not be blinkered by the fact we ponced 2 wins in the champions league, because that is not representative of our current ability. And of those 3 teams around us who also shit the bed, you can have your house that at least one of them will have a better season.

Ponced 2 wins? We didn't ponce anything off City. We Scored 4 goals against them over 2 games of football. Stop rewriting our history mate.

 

[SpartanSpur]

Yep, he seems a bit pissed at the moment. I as you've stated, the contract situations may well have tarnished what was a very good window for us and left him with a couple of frustrating issues in the squad to resolve.

I agree, he needs to resolve the friction and generate some enthusiasm within the squad. As i noted in a previous post i think the training the squad does needs to be separate from the contract issues. If the player is training hard, then they deserve a look. If they have downed tools a bit, then i fully back Poch in leaving them out of the squad. It's all speculation on our part as to where these individual situations are but it's on him to build bridges in the short term, for the greater good of the squad if nothing else.

A dream scenario is him winning them over between now and xmas and perhaps getting a gentlemen's agreement in place for a new contract. I.e. signing an extension on improved terms but with a get out if the right offer comes along. I know we don't do release clauses but something less formal would suit if these players have a real desire to go.

Eriksen feels like the big issue, and understandably so. Angry Poch turned up around the Audi Cup, the time where ITK had Eriksen doing a U-turn on a new contract. It has to be a massive headache, and even worse for Poch his creative replacements/backup have all had injury issues at the start of the season (Dele, Lo Celso, Ndombele).

I guess it is pretty hard to plan for the future when you don't know if a top player is coming or going either, so I do sympathise with Poch somewhat. I do think he was mad to leave Eriksen on the bench for Newcastle after (IMO) unnecessarily starting him away at City.

 

[Shadydan]

And where we are, is in the shit. Even with luck, we won nothing, and are in turmoil. SO lets not be blinkered by the fact we ponced 2 wins in the champions league, because that is not representative of our current ability. And of those 3 teams around us who also shit the bed, you can have your house that at least one of them will have a better season.

This would be a good argument if it wasn't so myopic.

Why is it we're the ones who were considered to be 'lucky' when we were missing key players in the games against Man City and Ajax?
Why is it we're the ones who were 'shit the bed' when we dropped points meaning that we let Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd back into the race for top 4

etc etc...

Luck argument doesn't wash with me, it's bollocks I'm afraid and we'd be here all day arguing the toss, that's why I said we are where we are, not where we could have been.

 

[Hakkz]

100 pages, are we at the end yet?