Our changing blueprint

[eddiebailey]

Since the early days of the Premiership Tottenham's problem as a club has been that, for all our enormous fanbase and financial muscle, we have been unable to sign players of the quality needed to take us into the Champions League; the reason being that the players who can get you into the Champions League only want to play for clubs who are already in the Champions League.

Since ENIC took over the club a number of strategies have been tried to get round this problem.

Plan A: The Hoddle Manoeuvre

Prior to the ENIC takeover Spurs had been stagnating mid-table. What was needed was drive and vision to take us forward, what we got was Glenn Hoddle and the five year plan. Under Glenn the approach was to sign star players discarded by the top clubs as being too old, but with a season or two still left in the tank: Sherringham, Poyet, Ziege, Redknapp. This Dad's Army would get us into Europe, and then the top stars would flock to join us. Unfortunately it turned out that the players contracts had more legs than the players, resulting in the White Hart Lane home for aged gentle footballers.

Plan B: The Arnesen Stratagem

Ditching Glenn and the five year plan, Daniel Levy scoured the globe for a model of footballing success, and found Frank Arnesen. Under Frank the aim was to build a team with a young British spine who would compensate for any shortcomings in ability with passion and team spirit: Robinson, Dawson, Davis, Carrick. And to instil the right mentality we would surround them with solid pros, bargain basement signings but with a track record of winning things: Naybet, Mendes, Stalteri, Tainio, Lee. We would also ensure continuity for the future by signing the best young talent: Huddlestone, Lennon, and quite a lot others who did not come close to working out. (Frank was shocking as a scout.) Unfortunately Frank left, and if Martin Jol continued to share his vision, the Board no longer did.

Plan C: The Comolli Gambit

Arsenal were building a brilliant young team by recruiting and nurturing the brightest young talents from around the world. We wanted some of that, and since Damien Comolli had been a scout for Arsenal surely he could do the same for us. So under Damien our first team budget was spent on bright young things: Assou-Ekottu, Bale, Boateng, Kaboul. Unfortunately, as a wise man once said, you do not win anything with kids.

Plan D: The Ramos Effect

Juande Ramos was the winner we were looking for to turn around our bunch of slackers and realise their potential. Okay that did not work out, but the club has succeeded in demonstrating its ambition by signing one of the most sought after coaches in Europe, and with Juande at the helm surely the top European players will fall over themselves to sign for us. So under Juande we are spending big and signing quality: Hutton, Woodgate, Modric. These are exciting times, and yet, a doubt remains. Would a Champions League team have gambled on Woodgate's fitness, and if so why did none of them come in for him? The top clubs were interested in Hutton and Modric certainly, but if they had signed them would they have gone straight into the starting line-up? Are we assembling a rock solid squad that can hit the ground running, or are these only the first steps in another rebuilding project? And is Jaunde, a coach who has had more clubs than Tiger Woods, the man for the long haul?

I am optimistic for next season, but cautiously so. The big difference for me is that Juande has, perforce, the full backing of the Board. Put bluntly they daren't sack him - or let him walk away for that matter - so they have to back him. So I think the Board will be pulling out all the stops. The question is whether that is going to be enough to persuade players of the quality needed to realise Jaunde's vision to join us. The worst case scenario is that we spend all summer chasing Samuel Eto'o, only on deadline day to end up resigning Kaisar Greg because he is all that is left available...

But I do not actually think that will happen. What I think will happen is that we will assemble a half decent squad who will take time to gel, but taken as a whole the season will be respectable. Whether that is sufficient to satisfy the ambitions of both Juande and the Board remains to be seen.

 

[Thesoccershrink]

Very good read, as usual, Eddie. Of course, there is always another option...

E: The Levy Payoff. Find a rich international businessman only interested in the bottom line and sell the club lock, stock and barrel. Warren Buffet, anyone?

 

[miles_64]

Great article, well written. I believe that Spurs will try to get their transfer dealings swen up early doors so that the squad has a long time to gel and raise their fitness over the summer (shame about Modric playing in EC (sort of!)). Kaisar Greg will therefore not be joining the club. My expectations remain high for next season.

 

[fazza]

I tend to agree with Thesoccershrink as a potential point E. I can see a big club sell off soon to some rich american who owns an nfl club or something on those lines or a rich russian like another abramovich.

One way or another I can smell a change in the air at the lane, but time will tell, the summer transfer dealings will go a long way to tell us of Ramos's pulling power for star players.

I think Ramos will be ruthless though with the players we have, i'd be fully expecting some shock exits.

 

[yanno]

Since the early days of the Premiership Tottenham's problem as a club has been that, for all our enormous fanbase and financial muscle, we have been unable to sign players of the quality needed to take us into the Champions League; the reason being that the players who can get you into the Champions League only want to play for clubs who are already in the Champions League.

Since ENIC took over the club a number of strategies have been tried to get round this problem.

A good thoughtful analysis. I think you've identified Catch-22 above: the players who can get you into the CL (in a league as competitive as the EPL) only want to play for a team already in the CL.

I entirely agree that Levy & ENIC have tried several different strategies, and all have been ditched (eg Hoddle's Dad's Army) or sabotaged (eg Chelski stealing Arnensen).

So now we're onto Plan D.

Plan D: The Ramos Effect

Juande Ramos was the winner we were looking for to turn around our bunch of slackers and realise their potential. Okay that did not work out, but the club has succeeded in demonstrating its ambition by signing one of the most sought after coaches in Europe, and with Juande at the helm surely the top European players will fall over themselves to sign for us. So under Juande we are spending big and signing quality: Hutton, Woodgate, Modric. These are exciting times, and yet, a doubt remains. Would a Champions League team have gambled on Woodgate's fitness, and if so why did none of them come in for him? The top clubs were interested in Hutton and Modric certainly, but if they had signed them would they have gone straight into the starting line-up? Are we assembling a rock solid squad that can hit the ground running, or are these only the first steps in another rebuilding project?

My view is that we need to see how this new, highly expensive, policy works next season. I do think Ramos is a top, winning, coach.

If we accept that to qualify for and play in the CL, the club needs players of CL ability, then there are really only three possible strategies:

i) sign CL-class veterans at the end of their career = Hoddle's strategy with the likes the Sheringham. Problem is when they start losing their legs and they're on long contracts this is highly expensive;

ii) buy players on the verge of CL class - which we arguably did with the likes of Kanoute, Keane, Carrick, Berba, Hutton. All these players (and a couple more) are clearly now CL class, but CL clubs weren't sure they were quite ready which is why we were able to buy them. For this to work our scouting system and judgement of player's potential ability has to be spot on. Modric probably fits into this category - and he chose to join a UEFA Cup first team rather than sit on a CL team like Chelski's bench (according to Bilic);

iii) sign CL-proven players with dodgy injury records or on hugely expensive Bosmans. Woodgate fits into this category. I think a club in our situation can risk a couple of transfers like this, but too many and you end up with Hoddle's team of sicknotes. Naybet & Davids on Bosmans were also good signings (but such contracts probably need to be limited to two seasons at most).

Obviously, like Wenger, we are trying to sign the best young 16-17 year-olds in the world and develop them through our Academy. But the competition here is intense. Just take a look at the Academies of CL clubs like the EPL Big Four: they're dominated by non-British players who've been plucked from international youth tournaments etc. And a homegrown Ledley King or Glenn Hoddle probably comes along no more than once or twice a decade.

I do think Eddie Bailey's analysis highlights the fact that rather than Spurs having a continuity of strategy and playing staff during Levy & ENIC's reign, the reality has in fact been a succession of radically different strategies.

Let's hope this one gets us into the CL. :beer:

 

[PT]

I think we do ENIC and Levy injustice by presuming the Club is for sale. We are a Club that has its admirers, there's no doubt about it - the potential is surely there to be fulfilled.

Levy has a long term business plan to make Spurs a viable and valuable asset in the market place.

At present White Hart Lane is gagging to be stretched / raised / swivelled / relocated. That part of the business plan will be effected before sale and it has the additional bonus of perpetuating income which in turn raises the Spurs bar.

Ramos will want to make a statement next season, beginning with one of his fabled pre-season fitness regimes. Expect to see a new look Spurs come flying out the blocks.

We won't buy too many new players - Ramos has declared his intentions already and instead will prefer to work with what he's found in the ranks with one or two first team additions.

All told, a watershed 08/09 season coming up then if i'm right Ramos will deliver or he'll be tempted back to a top Spanish outfit.

 

[Wiener]

I think the Levy's overall strategy has remained the same. He identified the key issues from the start and has tried to address them in a so far consistent manner.

1. Improve player trading. Buy players that hold their value and in the long-term includes investing in youth .

2. Invest in stadium expansion.

3. Strengthen the brand and maximise revenue.

The management structures, as far as I understand, have pretty much stayed the same.

What has changed over time is that we have gradually improved the personnel. In Ramos we may have found the man to take us to the next step. A winner, tactically pretty good, able to attract top players and all in the Spurs tradition.

I can't see how the blueprint has changed that much.

 

[lukespurs7]

top class article. When you put it like that it shows just how well ENIC have done and the credit they deserve. These things take time, but we are now a serious player and can attract top class coaches and players. It's taken time but from now on you'd like to think the future will be good especially with a new stadium possibly on the way and a top class squad of players to choose from with 2 top class coaches in charge And we are winning things again. Happy days

 

[Montasura]

Excellent post which I would whole heartedly agree with. My main concern is with plan E below posted by The soccershrink.

E: The Levy Payoff. Find a rich international businessman only interested in the bottom line and sell the club lock, stock and barrel. Warren Buffet, anyone?

The rumours of the Spurs buyout really concern me as I think there might just be some substance to them. Levy himself has, apparently, stated that he would consider selling under the right circumstances.

 

[lukespurs7]

So want levy to stay in charge!!!!

 

[Dan Ashcroft]

I tend to agree with Thesoccershrink as a potential point E. I can see a big club sell off soon to some rich american who owns an nfl club or something on those lines or a rich russian like another abramovich.

One way or another I can smell a change in the air at the lane, but time will tell, the summer transfer dealings will go a long way to tell us of Ramos's pulling power for star players.

I think Ramos will be ruthless though with the players we have, i'd be fully expecting some shock exits.

I've met Levy a few times in recent years. I honestly believe he would never sell for cash - Tottenham is neither a business or a vanity project for him, it's a passion and a profession.

Like Sugar before him Levy will sell when he's had enough and when he's confident that the people he is selling to are serious about the club and will do a better job than him. Essentially that will be to another 'port club' English jewish businessman, not a foreign owner.

 

[Kyras]

Personally, I agree with the poster that's said not much has changed under Levy, although we've gone through different stages, the club seems to be moving always in the right direction, but as EddieBailey mentioned, at times, there seems to have been a change in plan over a short period of time, I think we need to look at things over at least 3 or 4 years, similar to a moving average in economics, which smooths out highs and lows by looking at the bigger picture.

 

[DC_Boy]

I actually want the club to be taken over by a rich 'sugar daddy' - I think it's our only realistic chance of turning the big 4 into a big 5 - but while ENIC aare here I think overall they've done a good job -

 

[eddiebailey]

ii) buy players on the verge of CL class - which we arguably did with the likes of Kanoute, Keane, Carrick, Berba, Hutton. All these players (and a couple more) are clearly now CL class, but CL clubs weren't sure they were quite ready which is why we were able to buy them. For this to work our scouting system and judgement of player's potential ability has to be spot on. Bilic);

I think this is the nub of the issue as far as the Ramos era is concerned. And it is so hard to get right, for Kanoute, Keane, Carrick, Berbatov and Hutton read Bent, Postiga, Zokora, Rebrov and Chimbonda and you realise just how easy it is to blow a huge wodge of cash without making progress. Even Jenas, touted by both Sven and Sir Bobby as a racing certainty, has not quite delivered as expected.

But I suspect Juande is quite a decent judge of horseflesh; I get the impression he is both a lot more knowledgeable than Jol about players and in a much better position when it comes to getting his own way.

 

[eddiebailey]

What has changed over time is that we have gradually improved the personnel.

Not sure it has been a process of gradual improvement. Frank was obliged to rebuild more or less from scratch. Pleat's January signings apart, only King, Keane, Kanoute and Gardner (sort off) survived into the new era.

Over the last three seasons we have arguably stood still in terms of player quality, losing Carrick was a setback, Berbatov a step up in class; other changes were 'meh'.

And now the signals are increasingly that Ramos is intent on once again on deconstructing and rebuilding.

 

[yanno]

I think this is the nub of the issue as far as the Ramos era is concerned. And it is so hard to get right, for Kanoute, Keane, Carrick, Berbatov and Hutton read Bent, Postiga, Zokora, Rebrov and Chimbonda and you realise just how easy it is to blow a huge wodge of cash without making progress. Even Jenas, touted by both Sven and Sir Bobby as a racing certainty, has not quite delivered as expected.

But I suspect Juande is quite a decent judge of horseflesh; I get the impression he is both a lot more knowledgeable than Jol about players and in a much better position when it comes to getting his own way.

Absolutely. Jenas, Dawson & Robbo are excellent examples of players we bought thinking they'd become CL quality. Robbo arguably was, and has lost form. Dawson hasn't built on a very promising EPL start. And Jenas is still on the cusp of being a top player - as he has been ever since Souness said something hyperbolic along the lines of JJ could be the best midfielder in Europe.

And I'm sure we bought Bale, Kaboul, Prince Boateng, Bent and Taarabt thinking they would develop - within a season or two - into CL class players. Bale was on fire when he got injured, but the others still look some way off....

Let's hope we have a fantastic summer in the horseflesh market.... :wink:

 

[si_yidarmy]

best thing i have ever read on this site

 

[Real_madyidd]

Somewhere between B and C there was a Jol era where it was going pretty well. We were a Gnats cock away from champions league.

 

[striebs]

....
Plan C: The Comolli Gambit

Arsenal were building a brilliant young team by recruiting and nurturing the brightest young talents from around the world. We wanted some of that, and since Damien Comolli had been a scout for Arsenal surely he could do the same for us. So under Damien our first team budget was spent on bright young things: Assou-Ekottu, Bale, Boateng, Kaboul. Unfortunately, as a wise man once said, you do not win anything with kids.

What Arsenal have done is absolutely phenomenal and they have managed to build upon success .

Impossible not to begrudgingly admire the vision and professionalism they showed in the Death Star project .



Liverpool and the other big teams are going to spend heavily in the Summer . To stand a chance of getting 4th and staying there we are going to have to spend something like 100m to close the gap and the wage bill will rocket .


To do this the club is going to have to go deeply into debt and if the success doesn't materialise then we will see one almighty fire sale .

 

[nickspurs]

Good post and ensuing discussion.

For me I think it is evolving blueprint but in my mind I see slightly different phases for DL:

1) A (with hindsight) learning phase when he chose a good manager (and family favourite) in Hoddle who ran the team in the traditional manager way (coach plus transfer responsibilities). He realised after this didn't work out that the Director of Football structure was a way to insulate the club from the huge costs of managerial change - fire and hire and wholesale squad changes

2) Pulled a masterstroke to get Arnesen in and complemented that with buy British strategy (players used to the Prem so less of a gamble and maybe an insurance policy against any potential foreign player quota ruling).

3) Chelski nicked Arnesen and we replaced him with DC. Minor tweak to the DoF approach in that DC was more of a youth specialist but not a major shift for me

4) Ramos evolution. Still DoF approach but now pulling the stops out to get a proven winner as our coach. We give more input to the coach in recommendations for transfers - required to get Ramos in more than anything. Another compromise is that we have to assure him he can make more changes to the squad than the original DoF structure would have allowed with a coach change. Also evolution in that we relax the Buy British policy a bit in light of massive overvaluation in the market (common sense)

An evolution indeed. And for me proof that DL learns and adapts his strategy until we succeed - a very good managerial trait in my book.

I also think the cynics of DL cashing out are wide of the mark. He would sell if the price was very right and he felt comfortable with the new owners. But to get the right price he has to deliver what most of us want in a sustainable way: CL footie, silverware and a kick-ar$e bigger stadium. No probs from me in that respect.