Who thinks the odds for Weds are a bit wrong ?

[Supersi32]

The reality is that we drew to Hull at home at the weekend.

Another reality is that Liverpool lost at home to a Championship side in the FA Cup....

 

[Supersi32]

Of course we 'can' win. But history suggests that when we come up against these teams away, we don't.

Yes, there has to be a time when we break that, and no time like the present, but let's not get carried away. The point of this thread is about the betting odds, and I'm saying I completely understand why they are favourites.

And they're not an average side, they're a decent team who relies too heavily on two players and is low on confidence. Losing Xabi Alonso has obviously hurt them, but they are just one player different from the team that was title-challenging last year, so please don't fall into the 'they're no threat' trap

I didn`t say Liverpool aren`t a threat, but this season in comparison to previous seasons they are no more, no less a threat than we are....And in my opinion, from what I`ve seen of them this season they are very much an average side....

 

[guiltyparty]

Another reality is that Liverpool lost at home to a Championship side in the FA Cup....

And Man Utd lost at home to a League One side, doesn't mean you'd be confident of beating them at Old Trafford… seriously, this could go on all day

We've been more of a threat than them previously and not won. Bring it on, would love for us to stuff them, half my mates are Liverpool fans (all born in London too which gets my goat no end), but let's not get all ahead ourselves and think it's a foregone conclusion is the point.

The odds are right. They're the favourites

 

[Supersi32]

And Man Utd lost at home to a League One side, doesn't mean you'd be confident of beating them at Old Trafford… seriously, this could go on all day

We've been more of a threat than them previously and not won. Bring it on, would love for us to stuff them, half my mates are Liverpool fans (all born in London too which gets my goat no end), but let's not get all ahead ourselves and think it's a foregone conclusion is the point.

The odds are right. They're the favourites

I wouldn`t argue that the bookies are wrong, they never give much away...I just think we can go to Anfield and win.

 

[Adam456]

I know they're the home side and I obviously did mention that as one of the factors. I personally think that we're more likely than them to win because they just can't score at the moment and are without Gerrard and Torres and Benyayoun.

....but even if they are still favourites it's the 2/1 that I still don't understand except for simple weight of betting. That literally puts us as outsiders. Anyway....

Amusingly, when I mailed them about where we're watching the match, here is what two of my best mates, who are Liverpool supporters said:

* I’ll come along……….not for the football 'cause I expect us to lose to the flid army……but for the beer!

**Yeah I should be up for it too … but like Marc said, more for the beer than to watch ret*rds like Liverpool play

 

[StartingPrice]

Its paying 3-1 over here for a spurs win and 3.25 for a draw mg:

Now they ARE surprising odds. I would probably go 11:10 on for the Pool, so if it 10:11 against the bookies are being (surprisingly:hump conservative. 2:1 against us is probably about right - I would have said 15:8 (which is just under 2:1), so I would say they are probably just about right. Obviously, as others have said, what has been wagered already will have an impact on the odds.

To add my twopeeniesworth: Maxi Rodriguez(sp?) Aquillani (sp?) Maescherano and Riera on paper is a very good and very attacking midfield. The Pool seem to suffer most against the 'smaller' teams who park the bus (as do we), so this game is liable to be very open, and, as they showed against the Villains, they may be (relatively) pants but they are capable of turning defence into attack in seconds - decisively. So if those four hit it off in midfield we may have our work cut out. On the other hand it is Maxi's first game (if he plays) and he may not 'click' staright away; Aquillani is still waiting to 'explode' onto the scene - nothing is to say it won't be on Weds, but nothing is to say it will be either; Maescherano IS a good player, but he is also a red-card just waiting to happen; and Riera is very effective when he is effective, but he is definitely not as 'impactful' as Benayoun (who I believe they will miss almost as much as Torres/Gerard), and can go mising. It is a cliche, but this match really will be won and lost in midfield.

Against fully fit Pool team who will get space to play 3:1 would probably be slightly generous, but not overly so. As things stand, home advantage and the fact that they will get space to play should make them favourites. But they look likely to concede, so their psychology could be fragile. We are all looking at Benitez like a dead man walking, but he could equally do a 'Fergie' and it could start against usmg:

 

[guiltyparty]

I know they're the home side and I obviously did mention that as one of the factors. I personally think that we're more likely than them to win because they just can't score at the moment and are without Gerrard and Torres and Benyayoun.

....but even if they are still favourites it's the 2/1 that I still don't understand except for simple weight of betting. That literally puts us as outsiders. Anyway....

Amusingly, when I mailed them about where we're watching the match, here is what two of my best mates, who are Liverpool supporters said:

* I’ll come along……….not for the football 'cause I expect us to lose to the flid army……but for the beer!

**Yeah I should be up for it too … but like Marc said, more for the beer than to watch ret*rds like Liverpool play

They've scored in their last five games, two in a couple of those games too. We, on the other hand, drew a blank against Hull at home. Just saying, like…

And yeah all the Pool fans I knew are saying they're going to get spanked, it's a defence mechanism - get the 'we're shit' in before we can. Make no mistake, though, they'll be hurting if we actually win

 

[Bonjour]

3.25 for a draw are very good odds.

 

[Adam456]

They've scored in their last five games, two in a couple of those games too. We, on the other hand, drew a blank against Hull at home. Just saying, like…

And yeah all the Pool fans I knew are saying they're going to get spanked, it's a defence mechanism - get the 'we're shit' in before we can. Make no mistake, though, they'll be hurting if we actually win

When I was saying can't score I was being deliberately insulting :wink: - it's a football cliche. I obviously checked their last 6 games in the original post - they scored 2 in the home game against Wolves and 1 in each since then

I know they're getting in early with the negative comments but they still tell a story, which is that very few of them are confident and many of them are bricking it

 

[DC_Boy]

it will be a surprise if we win - no matter waht some pool fans are saying

if they're confident of losing they might as well make some money out of their misery and pile in on spurs

but most deep down aren't that daft - they know realistically we are the outsiders - they're ****ed off and rightly so that they can't expect a comfortable routine win v us - but they're still favourites

 

[bigturnip]

We've failed to win in something like 65 on the spin away at the Sky 4.

2/1 is starting to look a bit stingy.

 

[Adam456]

We've failed to win in something like 65 on the spin away at the Sky 4.

2/1 is starting to look a bit stingy.

yes yes that's all very well and we all know the stats but on how many of those occasions can you quite seriously, hand on heart, say that we've gone there with a much better side ?

big fat zero

 

[camaj]

there's a lot of pessimism with their fans at the moment, most of them will be very nervous tomorrow. If we keep it tight and frustrate them it'll work in our favour and then we'll spring the trap. Just hope 'arry doesn't tell them to throw everything at them

 

[DC_Boy]

We've failed to win in something like 65 on the spin away at the Sky 4.

2/1 is starting to look a bit stingy.

exactly - if people think the bookies are giving spurs generous odds then they are welcome to play them - the bookies will happily take their money

pool are faves for a reason - indeed several reasons which i and others including your good self have been explaining

 

[DC_Boy]

well if anyone didn't understand why liverpool were favourites before the game - they surely do now

it perfectly encapsulated why we do so poorly at big 4 grounds (it's 4 straight defeats without a goal scored this season i believe)

we push forward nearly score - they go down the other end and score

harry having gambled by splitting up a tight defence and the gamble failing -

yes i know it wasn't king's fault - but daws and seb have been dealing with the these attacks game in game out

then we have a cast iron pen on crouch - foul to pool

then defoe scores and it's ruled out on a techincality

then we collapse because we just can't deal with these gamess

 

[brett.spurs]

You also have to factor in that we're well renowned chokers.

0-66 and counting!

Don't worry, it's just a blip :wink:

 

[guiltyparty]

Least enjoyable 'I told you so' ever but…

So predictable. Please never question the odds again. Believe in your heart we can win, of course, but when it comes down to cold hard cash, the bookies usually back the right horse

 

[DC_Boy]

Least enjoyable 'I told you so' ever but…

So predictable. Please never question the odds again. Believe in your heart we can win, of course, but when it comes down to cold hard cash, the bookies usually back the right horse

exactly - the bookies set odds not on sentiment but on their analysis which for major events like pool spurs will be thorough - then punters affect the odds (by and large) thereafter by their response

and while they're not as smart as the bookies, overall, they are betting with real cash, and so who they choose is not merely determined (usually) by who they support/hate etc

 

[StartingPrice]

exactly - the bookies set odds not on sentiment but on their analysis which for major events like pool spurs will be thorough - then punters affect the odds (by and large) thereafter by their response

and while they're not as smart as the bookies, overall, they are betting with real cash, and so who they choose is not merely determined (usually) by who they support/hate etc

Also, I know folk who regulararly back against their team on the basis that if you lose at least you will be cheered somewhat by an influx of cash:shrug:

 

[guiltyparty]

Also, I know folk who regulararly back against their team on the basis that if you lose at least you will be cheered somewhat by an influx of cash:shrug:

I did that, but did 2-1, so lost out both ways. I could envisage us going one up, them getting a dodgy penalty and then going on to win when our heads dropped, the usual Spurs way.

There was always going to be a dodgy refereeing decision, it just turned out it went against us rather than for them.