Who thinks the odds for Weds are a bit wrong ?

Adam456

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For the first time in my life I look at a league game against Liverpool (home or away) and think that we're more likely to win it than they are. Am I crazy ? I don't think so (well not because of this anyway). It's true that we have an awful record at Anfield but if you ask me that simply refelects that for the last 30-odd years Liverpool have had a much better side and squad than us and are in better form, much higher in the table etc. (same could be said of virtually any top club at home to a less successful one). That certainly is not the case this season by any stretch.

I'm pretty sure that bookies normally go by a combination of current form, league position, important injuries, likelihood of significant resting (e.g. CC matches) and, of course, home advantage. So I found it somewhat astonishing when I checked the odds at a leading bookies for Weds' game:

Liverpool 11/10
Draw 11/5
Spurs 2/1

Last 6 form in all competitions goes:

Spurs W4...D2...L0 Scored 13, Conceded 0
Liv W2...D2...L2 Scored 6, Conceded 6

Admittedly they played 4 of those away to our 2 but then all but 1 of their opponents was in the Championship or bottom 5 of the prem. We're 4 points ahead of them in the league. They've lost 10 games this season to our 4. Our goal difference is 8 better (and if you think that's all down to the Wigan game remember they beat Hull 6-1) and we already beat them quite comfortably with their squad fully fit at the lane.

Also, crucially, they're without their best striker, midfielder and defender. Their record in games without Torres and Gerrard is diabolical. We're without Lennon (I don't think King's availability is overly important given the defensive form without him).

Add to this the 'dead-man-walking Benitez - head drop - here we go again' factor if they concede early and I reckon they will be bricking it.

If I was a betting man I'd be calling 2/1 great value. But since I'm not I'm just bemused Eek Eek Eek because it means they are quite heavy favourite and we're an outside chance. Is this just a lot of scousers backing themselves already ? Or have the bookies got it way wrong ?
 

ajspurs

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I don't think you can call it, after about 25 mins into the game I could make a reasonable guess but yea, only after its played out a bit.

You never know, I could imagine them starting like they did against Reading, not really creating anything and having next to no inspiration or I can imagine them being pushed by the fans and pressuring.

If it goes as it should though, I think Liverpool won't have anyone to really drive them through the match.

Everyone was saying Stoke were a bad team for them to have without their trio, I think it was a good one for them. A lot of teams would have passed round that team and most probably got the win, Liverpool just had to mostly match Stoke physically which Benitez knew from his line-up.

I think if we take the game to them, we have a really good chance of maybe getting a win.
 

dontcallme

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The away team only go in as favourites when there is a clear gap in quality. We are quite even at the moment so the odds have to go in favour of the home team.

Liverpools home record is 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the league. Our away record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats.
 

Supersi32

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For the first time in my life I look at a league game against Liverpool (home or away) and think that we're more likely to win it than they are. Am I crazy ? I don't think so (well not because of this anyway). It's true that we have an awful record at Anfield but if you ask me that simply refelects that for the last 30-odd years Liverpool have had a much better side and squad than us and are in better form, much higher in the table etc. (same could be said of virtually any top club at home to a less successful one). That certainly is not the case this season by any stretch.

I'm pretty sure that bookies normally go by a combination of current form, league position, important injuries, likelihood of significant resting (e.g. CC matches) and, of course, home advantage. So I found it somewhat astonishing when I checked the odds at a leading bookies for Weds' game:

Liverpool 11/10
Draw 11/5
Spurs 2/1

Last 6 form in all competitions goes:

Spurs W4...D2...L0 Scored 13, Conceded 0
Liv W2...D2...L2 Scored 6, Conceded 6

Admittedly they played 4 of those away to our 2 but then all but 1 of their opponents was in the Championship or bottom 5 of the prem. We're 4 points ahead of them in the league. They've lost 10 games this season to our 4. Our goal difference is 8 better (and if you think that's all down to the Wigan game remember they beat Hull 6-1) and we already beat them quite comfortably with their squad fully fit at the lane.

Also, crucially, they're without their best striker, midfielder and defender. Their record in games without Torres and Gerrard is diabolical. We're without Lennon (I don't think King's availability is overly important given the defensive form without him).

Add to this the 'dead-man-walking Benitez - head drop - here we go again' factor if they concede early and I reckon they will be bricking it.

If I was a betting man I'd be calling 2/1 great value. But since I'm not I'm just bemused Eek Eek Eek because it means they are quite heavy favourite and we're an outside chance. Is this just a lot of scousers backing themselves already ? Or have the bookies got it way wrong ?
From experience, bookies very, very rarely get it way wrong.
 

DC_Boy

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May 20, 2005
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for the original game pool were odds on to win

which was one reason why the idea they cancelled it because the were frightened of playing us, seemed wrong to me

at least the odds seem to have shifted in our favour a little now

as i said at the time i was quite happy for the game to be postponed (leaving aside fan inconvenience etc issues) while a lot of people on various forums were getting very hot under the collar about the situation

liverpool are rightly still favourites - a cursory look at our record there will give a substantial clue as to why that is the case

we have a better chance than we did, but to win is still an outsider's chance
 

DEFchenkOE

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Feb 13, 2006
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Plus we haven't won a league game away to the big 4 since forever.

Liverpool are favourites and rightly so, no matter who they have injured.
 

DC_Boy

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there seems to be a lot more sense and understanding of how odds are compiled and then how punters react to thm than there was in the comedy/hysteria nuttiness going on before the first game all over the spurs and other football forums when the fact that pool were correctly odds on faves to win seemed to be overlooked as conspiracy theories and the idea that pool were running scared seemed rampant

yeh cos we were going to go up there and spank them despite the injuries we had and our appalling record

hilarious

we might have won - we probably would have lost - a loss was my prediction and the punters/bookies one too

we now have a slightly better chance
 

camaj

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Aug 10, 2004
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we have to remember that the odds are as much about how much has been bet on a particular team. Most of rhe money will go on liverpool so they'll only offer low odds otherwise they'd be facing a huge payout.

If lennon plays we'll have a chance, but losing palacios is a blow. Hopefully we'll play modric in the middle. He would make a great partnership with palacios so it'll have to be huddlestone

Even with a full team i wouldn't see us winning at anfield, some how we always seem to cock it up or they pull one out the bag
 

Supersi32

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we have to remember that the odds are as much about how much has been bet on a particular team. Most of rhe money will go on liverpool so they'll only offer low odds otherwise they'd be facing a huge payout.

If lennon plays we'll have a chance, but losing palacios is a blow. Hopefully we'll play modric in the middle. He would make a great partnership with palacios so it'll have to be huddlestone

Even with a full team i wouldn't see us winning at anfield, some how we always seem to cock it up or they pull one out the bag
Why, what has happened to Palacios?
 
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