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Why do super-fit Spurs concede more of their goals late on?

Allygold

The Editor
Admin
Apr 15, 2004
1,657
528
Another stats-based piece from me and a genuine question, because I really don't have the answer. Why did Spurs concede the majority of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches last season? Here's the story.
 

Lilbaz

Just call me Baz
Apr 1, 2005
41,363
74,893
Think it's largely down to nerves. The fans don't help either.

We seem to try and see a game out by a one goal lead. When the opposition start to throw everything at us in the last 10 minutes or so we look shacky and the fans go quiet.
 

spursgirls

SC Supporter
Aug 13, 2008
19,321
40,029
I agree with @Lilbaz nerves play a huge part. When they crumbled at the end of the season, you could see the fear in their eyes.

I also wonder if the subs are clear as to who they are marking, as, for instance at a corner, the opposition often seem to have a clear header and several of our players are left looking at each other.
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
quite easy really, our hardest worker was usually our 1st sub around the 70th minute, and our bench was never that frightening to close games out.

Mason was coming on for either Dembele or Lamela, and perhaps our pressing did drop off a fraction towards the end of the season, both Kane and Dier had very lengthy seasons. after we went out of the Europa there was very little rotation, during the season Eriksen had a bit of bench time, as did Lamela, but not many had a break for the rest of the season.
 

DogsOfWar

Well-Known Member
Jan 12, 2005
2,301
3,633
For me it's due to the pressing game which relies on subs who can come on to continue at the same level both physically and technically.
None of our subs were able to do this.
Opposition teams could sit back defensively against us and then bring on extra legs to take advantage of this and gain the initiative late on.

Now we have Wanyama, Janssen, and hopefully Nkoudou we should be able to bring on three sets of legs that will see the energy levels go up whilst the performance level stays the same.
 

Mattspur

ENIC IN
Jan 7, 2004
4,888
7,272
I'd love to know how many of those late goals cost us points. If it's not that many then maybe there's a lack of concentration when they believe the game is won.
 

worcestersauce

"I'm no optimist I'm just a prisoner of hope
Jan 23, 2006
26,957
45,230
Perhaps having no alternative to Harry Kane up front means by minute 80 Kane is weary or sub'd and we have no out ball and lacked the ability to hit on the break allowing the opposition to play in our half.
 

mpickard2087

Patient Zero
Jun 13, 2008
21,889
32,562
It's been discussed at various times this season by myself and others such as BC, I think a big problem is that the team isn't really that comfortable with retaining the ball when the opposition is actually coming out and has to show some urgency. How many times in the last couple of years have you seen us have all the ball, eventually make a breakthrough, but then surrender the initiative (and the ball), drop deeper and the opposition all of a sudden have their moments in the game? I rarely recall us just being able to keep the ball and easily run down the clock.

I think some of this surrender of the initiative is down to instruction, I don't know whether Poch thinks we should sit deep and then try to hit teams on the counter, but I'm unconvinced by it and I think our performance in the closing stages of games are often messy. A large part of it though is that the opposition going behind are forced to come out and press and without the armchair ride some of our players get shown up for their fallabilities... Hugo's kicking is very hit and miss, Walker will often do something daft or make a silly choice, ditto Rose. Dier is slowly improving in aspects of receiving and moving the ball but there were countless games last season where under any pressure he didn't want the ball and just went out of the game, and he also tires. Dembele often tires and loses impact later in games. Alli/Lamela/Son/Kane are either a bit dithery or aren't the surest with their first touch. Etc. Etc.

As I said I think it is partly tactical, but my instinct is after watching countless games is that after taking a lead there is kind of a sense that 'we can relax now' when at that point you may have to work even harder. You have to work harder to find space, passes have to be quicker, crisper and more efficient. The job isn't done because you're 1 or 2-0 up with 20 mins to go. I do think we have to aspire to improve that part of our game management.
 

Bus-Conductor

SC Supporter
Oct 19, 2004
39,837
50,713
Another stats-based piece from me and a genuine question, because I really don't have the answer. Why did Spurs concede the majority of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches last season? Here's the story.

It's been discussed at various times this season by myself and others such as BC, I think a big problem is that the team isn't really that comfortable with retaining the ball when the opposition is actually coming out and has to show some urgency. How many times in the last couple of years have you seen us have all the ball, eventually make a breakthrough, but then surrender the initiative (and the ball), drop deeper and the opposition all of a sudden have their moments in the game? I rarely recall us just being able to keep the ball and easily run down the clock.

I think some of this surrender of the initiative is down to instruction, I don't know whether Poch thinks we should sit deep and then try to hit teams on the counter, but I'm unconvinced by it and I think our performance in the closing stages of games are often messy. A large part of it though is that the opposition going behind are forced to come out and press and without the armchair ride some of our players get shown up for their fallabilities... Hugo's kicking is very hit and miss, Walker will often do something daft or make a silly choice, ditto Rose. Dier is slowly improving in aspects of receiving and moving the ball but there were countless games last season where under any pressure he didn't want the ball and just went out of the game, and he also tires. Dembele often tires and loses impact later in games. Alli/Lamela/Son/Kane are either a bit dithery or aren't the surest with their first touch. Etc. Etc.

As I said I think it is partly tactical, but my instinct is after watching countless games is that after taking a lead there is kind of a sense that 'we can relax now' when at that point you may have to work even harder. You have to work harder to find space, passes have to be quicker, crisper and more efficient. The job isn't done because you're 1 or 2-0 up with 20 mins to go. I do think we have to aspire to improve that part of our game management.

Completely agree with @mpickard2087 above, and he has mentioned many of the things I and others have throughout the season, like Dier shrinking back into the back line and stopping looking for the ball when we are under the cosh as teams chase us late in games, thus surrendering the initiative instead of trying to starve the opposition of oxygen.

I personally I think Pochettino's in game management leaves a lot to be desired and is the weakest part of his management. I think this was the biggest factor in, not only, Spurs being the team that conceded the most points from winning positions but also his Southampton team doing the same in 13-14. His substitutions often seemed counter-intuitive.

I remember we suffered from a similar problem in the early part of AVB's first season, he came out and said (post the Everton away game I think) that we were going to work on this and put it right, and I think we barely gave a lead for the rest of a season. Mourinho is known to work on "scenario game management" rigorously with his teams (i.e. what his team should do - tactically - in various given game scenarios).

Very few coaches/managers excel in all facets, especially at such an early stage in their career as Pochettino is still at. We can only hope he realises that this is becoming an endemic problem for his sides and figures out a solution and works it out on the training pitch, but also makes better in game management decisions that aid it.
 

yusrisafri

Well-Known Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,369
7,548
We allow very few shots against us, but we seem very weak from crosses, especially when Verts and Jan are defending.
Well at least you can be 100% assured that Verts and Jan wont collide into each other when defending.
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
Stupidly taking Lamela off cost us a few times last season.

Unfortunately on 2 of those at least (both v the scum) 1 more foul and we most probably wouldn't of had the option to replace, and would of been a man down
 

Lighty64

I believe
Aug 24, 2010
10,400
12,476
I'd love to know how many of those late goals cost us points. If it's not that many then maybe there's a lack of concentration when they believe the game is won.

I do believe last season we were both top for winning and losing points from the team leading in a match
 

michaelden

Knight of the Fat Fanny
Aug 13, 2004
26,450
21,805
Another stats-based piece from me and a genuine question, because I really don't have the answer. Why did Spurs concede the majority of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches last season? Here's the story.

I think it's down to Lamela being subbed around 70 minutes and our defense from the front (the high press) stops working. In the Lamela thread & the match day threads you can see loads of times when Lamela gets subbed the posts start talking about how we have lost our rhythm and why we are playing deeper.
 

sly1

Well-Known Member
Sep 25, 2004
451
1,270
Have you looked at how our stats compare with other teams? It could, for example, be the case that all teams concede more often towards the end of games. That wouldn't be particularly surprising, as this would be the time when the opposition are pushing for a winner/equalizer.
 
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