The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-2015

[yiddo23]

All I know is that on the real table we are three points off relegation, and playing absolute shit football and dropping points to shit teams....which makes us shit, so now when we win points the other team will say they just dropped points to a shit team. And they would be right. This is the most negative I've been in awhile, but 1 win out of 7 will do that to a person, after all...I'm just a man

 

[beats1]

All I know is that on the real table we are three points off relegation, and playing absolute shit football and dropping points to shit teams....which makes us shit, so now when we win points the other team will say they just dropped points to a shit team. And they would be right. This is the most negative I've been in awhile, but 1 win out of 7 will do that to a person, after all...I'm just a man

I thought it was 2 wins in the last 7

Anyway I updated it and done in points order

Graph

 

[beats1]

West Ham are on -7, so despite being in the top 4, they have mainly beaten the bottom teams despite 2 decent performances

So I doubt they will continue being above unless we continue this poor form

 

[npearl4spurs]

Our home games thus far:
Fixture #2 of the Season: QPR at White Hart Lane. We won. (0).
Fixture #3 of the Season: Liverpool at Home: We were embarrassed (again). But according to the model, we should have protected WHL and secured 3 points. (-3)
Fixture #5 of the Season: West Brom at WHL: We lost. -3 points.
Fixture #7 of the Season: Southampton at WHL: We won. Net result 0.
Fixture #9: Newcastle at WHL: Loss. (-3).
Fixture #11: Stoke City at WHL. Loss (-3).
Fixture #13: Everton at WHL. Win (0).
Fixture #15: Crystal Palace at WHL. Draw (-2).
Fixture #17: Burnley at WHL. Win. (0).
Fixture #19: Manchester United at WHL. Draw. (-2).
Fixture #20: Chelsea at WHL. Win (0).
Fixture #22: Sunderland at WHL. Win (0).
Fixture #24: Arsenal at WHL. Win (0).

To tally this up, the model punishes us for losing at home so our home net points are -16.

The next step according to the model is to even beat the bottom seven teams (decided from the 3 newly promoted teams and then teams 17-14 of last years table finishes) away. QPR, Burnley, Leicester, Sunderland, Aston Villa, West Brom and Hull

Fixture #4 of the Season: Away to Sunderland: We drew with them in a heartbreaker (feel so bad for that Kane OG). We dropped two points. (-2)
Fixture #10: Away to Aston Villa. Win. (0).
Fixture #12: Away to Hull. Win (0).
Fixture #18: Away to Leicester. Win. (0).
Fixture #23: Away to West Brom. Win. (0).

Net against the bottom 7 away from home: -2 points.

Lastly, the model says we should at least draw away against the other 12 teams from last year's table.

Fixture #1 of the Season: Away to West Ham: We won. The model says we are expected to draw and earn 1 point from that result. We earned 3. (+2)
Fixture #6 of the Season: Away to Arsenal: We drew. (0)
Fixture #8 of the Season: Away to Manchester City. We lost (still some positives to take away, in my mind). The model says a title winning team would have drawn away to City. We lost. -1 expected points.
Fixture #14: Away to Chelsea. Loss. (-1)
Fixture #16: Away to Swansea. Win (+2).
Fixture #21: Away to Crystal Palace. Loss. (-1).
Fixture #25: Away to Liverpool. Loss. (-1).

Net points in away fixtures against the top 12 teams from last year: 0.

Therefore we add up our results so far:
-16 at home
-2 against the bottom seven away
0 against the upper 12 away
-18 points.

According to the model, the Premier League Champion should have 61 points.
Chelsea 59 (-2)
City 52 (-9)
United 47 (-14)
Southampton 46 (-15)
Arsenal 45 (-16)
Tottenham 43 (-18)
Liverpool 42 (-19)
West Ham 38 (-23)

 

[BK007]

...that seems incredibly pointless considering your table at the end of it mirrors the PL exactly.

 

[ERO]

I think that's because the table that was posted at the end there assumes par points should be 61 for everyone - i.e. that everyone has played the same mix as Tottenham. It's highly unlikely that this is the case,and hence the point with the alternative table falls away.

 

[ERO]

Any chance you could post up the excel sheet, @beats1?

 

[Bobbins]

This is the most confusing thread on SC... Except for the Dibby one for anyone who joined after he left.

 

[YidNick]

I personally hate this. Liverpool fans so it so that they can feel relevant. It's stupid and dumb.

 

[ERO]

I personally hate this. Liverpool fans so it so that they can feel relevant. It's stupid and dumb.

Are you sure what you mean isn't "I personally don't understand this."?

 

[YidNick]

Are you sure what you mean isn't "I personally don't understand this."?

Nope. It's a stupid concept. Liverpool fans are always harping in about how they're actually second because that's where they are in this dumb table when they're sat like7th in the league

 

[Graysonti]

This is like school

Do I have homework ?

 

[225]

Don't want to offend anyone who enjoys this, but it's possibly the most statistically redundant thing I've ever seen.

There's so many flaws in it I can only agree with what @YidNick has said, in such that it seems like a warped PL table designed for Liverpool fans to cheer at and pretend they've won something at the end of the season.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

The actual table never lies.

 

[Real_madyidd]

Don't want to offend anyone who enjoys this, but it's possibly the most statistically redundant thing I've ever seen.

There's so many flaws in it I can only agree with what @YidNick has said, in such that it seems like a warped PL table designed for Liverpool fans to cheer at and pretend they've won something at the end of the season.

At the end of the season this looks just like the premier league.

It makes sense to me. All it does is smooth out the fixture list to try and give a true reflection of where teams are. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't work, but I like the idea.

 

[nicdic]

I think I prefer the against the same fixtures last season type tables.

 

[225]

At the end of the season this looks just like the premier league.

It makes sense to me. All it does is smooth out the fixture list to try and give a true reflection of where teams are. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't work, but I like the idea.

I think it's flawed though. Some teams can beat their rivals regularly, but can lose lots of away games to smaller sides (HR with us), and vice versa. It's a bit of a testicles out bragging rights graph.

At the end of the day, the beauty of the PL is such that Stoke can beat Leicester 5-0 one match, then Leicester could realistically win 3-1 at United in their next. As such, you can never really predict anything with a real sense of accuracy, and the league table suffices as-is.

Do we really need someone to slave over an excel spreadsheet to tell us we're 18 points behind a guaranteed PL title?

 

[JimmyG2]

Are you sure you haven't downloaded
the London Underground route projections
for 2050 by mistake?

 

[ERO]

It's a table based on weighting of different fixtures according to supposed difficulty. Thus it's a better prediction than just looking at the table. "The table never lies" - and the table after 38 matches does not, but up to 38 matches the table is based on playing different teams and can such be a "lying" predictor of the final table. This alternative table tries to smooth that out, and give a better prediction.

It only becomes stupid when you don't realise what it is, and expect it to be 100 % correct. Of course it's flawed. And no one is saying 90 points guarantees you the PL title. But surely everyone understands that the opposition you have played - and the opposition you have yet to play, relates to the position you have in the current table and in the final table.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

It's a table based on weighting of different fixtures according to supposed difficulty. Thus it's a better prediction than just looking at the table. "The table never lies" - and the table after 38 matches does not, but up to 38 matches the table is based on playing different teams and can such be a "lying" predictor of the final table. This alternative table tries to smooth that out, and give a better prediction.

It only becomes stupid when you don't realise what it is, and expect it to be 100 % correct. Of course it's flawed. And no one is saying 90 points guarantees you the PL title. But surely everyone understands that the opposition you have played - and the opposition you have yet to play, relates to the position you have in the current table and in the final table.

I disagree. After 25 matches, the table doesn't lie (beyond mere margins). It doesn't really matter if not all teams have met the exact same opponent the same amount of times. There are so many other variables that influence the standings beyond the name of the opponents you've met. The present table is the best at showing how good a club is performing relative to all other opponents.