The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-2015

[beats1]

I came across this on RAWK and thought we should have our own. Mods it would great if you sticky this and I'll try and update it every game.

Basically it works on the theory that to win the title you need 90 points and around 72 points to get top four. Its also a great way of actually gauging how well you're doing in relation to your rivals

The graph will show a par score of 0, which is 90. The par score is achieved by winning all your home game and the easiest 7 away games(the bottom 7 from last year; QPR, Burnley, Leicester, Sunderland, Aston Villa, West Brom and Hull) whilst drawing the remaining 12 away games. That adds up to 90 points.

Now if you plot these results and do it for every team, it should give a better representation of where we are in relation to other teams. So, this is the table at the moment for premier league top 8(last season):
Gameweek 8

Now clearly we aren't in the title race(though it looks like Southampton are), so here is a graph showing where is team is in relation to their target

Here is a previous graph showing how it worked over the course of a season:

Spoiler

Taken from Rawk, credit goes to Prof

So looking at how you get the score this season we started with these fixtures and the par score
West Ham H - To achieve Par we need 1 point(and zero on the graph)
QPR H - To achieve Par we need 3 points
Liverpool H - To achieve Par we need 3 points
Sunderland A - To achieve Par we need 3 points, they were one of the bottom 7 last season

So to achieve Par(0 on the graph) we need to get 10 points from those fixtures

We got these results
West Ham - 3 points - so that is +2
QPR - 3 points - still +2 overall after matching par the points score
Liverpool - 0 points - now -1 below par since it was a home game and we got 3 points less than par
Sunderland - 1 points - now -3 points as we dropped 2 points against one of the bottom 7

So now our score is -3 to our projected par score of 90. So we would get 87 points if we matched par for the rest of the season.

Warning: unlike golf the rawk graphs list beating par as +2 as opposed to minus number(-2), which golf uses to show the best scores

Here is the fixture list and the bold games are home. All games shaded blue have a 3 point par score and the rest are 1 point par score.

Spoiler

Also @SpursManChris if you have any questions please direct them to Prof on Rawk

 

[beats1]

Just looked at the previous years table and only Man Utd have got more than Chelsea's score atm. That year they won the title by 11 points

Lets hope they self destruct

 

[Bulletspur]

I honestly do not understand this!

 

[beats1]

I honestly do not understand this!

What bit didn't you get?

The aim is to get a par score. That is represented by getting 0 on the line graph. If for example southampton win all their remaining home games, beat last year's bottom 7 away and draw the rest. They will achieve par 0 which is 90 points(usually enough to win the title

Here is last years graph

It clearly shows that some teams how they are looking over their course of the season, whereas the table doesnt show that Man Utd for instance however haven't played any top team.

To get minus points on the above graph you have to lose or draw a either a home game or an away game to the bottom 7 teams. Or you have to lose against the better 12 teams away.

To gain points on the graph you have to beat 12 teams away from home. Which also shows that last year liverpool didn't look like title challengers until they started to beat the top teams away from home.

If anything our defeat to liverpool was a catalyst for their whole season

 

[beats1]

Also shows how bad the top 4 chasing teams are performing in relation to last years

 

[Geyzer Soze]

Also @SpursManChris if you have any questions please direct them to Prof on Rawk

Prof runs rawk now? When did he leave COYS?

 

[beats1]

Prof runs rawk now? When did he leave COYS?

Don't know, Coys banned me after 3 days

 

[Geyzer Soze]

Don't know, Coys banned me after 3 days

Ah, a longtimer!

 

[npearl4spurs]

I honestly do not understand this!

For all those who initially have this reaction, let me try to break it down another way. Looking at OP's last Spoiler Image really helps this come together.

This model expects the title winning team in the EPL to have 90 points. The first expected way to achieve that goal is to win all your home games. That expectation is the par level as in golf. So every home game is an expected 3 points for Spurs. Every game we draw at home, we lose 2 expected points. Every game we lose at home (West Brom) we lose 3 expected points. In relation to this model (as in golf) your score doesn't go down -1 as in you made a birdie. Your expected score simply does not change (a net result of 0.) In the golf comparison, you played a Par 3 hole and parred with a score of 3. You didn't gain a shot or lose a shot.

Therefore our home games thus far:
Fixture #2 of the Season: QPR at White Hart Lane. We won. Therefore we achieved the par level of 3 points earned.
Fixture #3 of the Season: Liverpool at Home: We were embarrassed (again). But according to the model, we should have protected WHL and secured 3 points. Therefore, we netted a loss of 3 points.
Fixture #5 of the Season: West Brom at WHL: We lost. -3 points.
Fixture #7 of the Season: Southampton at WHL: We won. The model says big-whoop. Net result 0.

To tally this up, the model punishes us for losing at home so our home net points are -6.

The next step according to the model is to even beat the bottom seven teams (decided from the 3 newly promoted teams and then teams 17-14 of last years table finishes) away.

Fixture #4 of the Season: Away to Sunderland: We drew with them in a heartbreaker (feel so bad for that Kane OG). We should have earned 3 points, but we left with 1. We dropped two points, according to the model and fans' opinions, in that result.

Net against the bottom 7 away from home: -2 points.

Lastly, the model says we should at least draw away against the other 12 teams from last year's table.

Fixture #1 of the Season: Away to West Ham: We won (GET IN DIER). The model says we are expected to draw and earn 1 point from that result. We earned 3. (+2)
Fixture #6 of the Season: Away to Arsenal: We drew. We did what the model wanted us to do, so we didn't net any gain or lost points. (0)
Fixture #8 of the Season: Away to Manchester City. We lost (still some positives to take away, in my mind). The model says a title winning team would have drawn away to City. We lost. -1 expected points.

Net points in away fixtures against the top 12 teams from last year: +1.

Therefore we add up our results so far:
-6 at home
-2 against the bottom seven away
+1 against the upper 12 away
-7 points.

Therefore, if we win every home game from here on out, beat the bad remaining 6 teams at their place, and at least draw the other 9 upper teams away, we will end the season with 83 points.

tl;dr: let's protect home and steal some points away to climb back into the top 4 race and let other teams drop points or lose to us.
COYS

 

[JimmyG2]

All this has really gooked my goggle.
Are the graphs meant to make it easier to understand.
Don't mind me; I'm an idiot.
Are we going to win the title or not?

 

[npearl4spurs]

Now I can look at those numbers:

Southampton: they will come down because they won't win/draw at every team from the top 12 last year. They lost to us and they will lose to the big dogs. They won't hold that 0. We really need them to stop being so good at home and to drop a few against the minnows.

Arsenal at WHL will be crucial.
A win at Liverpool and Southampton would be a huge results too.

 

[npearl4spurs]

All this has really gooked my goggle.
Are the graphs meant to make it easier to understand.
Don't mind me; I'm an idiot.
Are we going to win the title or not?

Graph #1 shows you that we aren't at top 4 pace right now. But we are outpacing Arsenal according to expectations!
Graph #3 shows you what teams we are going to need to excel against to climb back into the top 4 discussion

No, Chelsea are going to win the title (by this model and the eye test).
If we continue to improve, especially at home (with the fans' support!!), we can get top 4 especially with Pool dropping 2 expected points today.

 

[beats1]

All this has really gooked my goggle.
Are the graphs meant to make it easier to understand.
Don't mind me; I'm an idiot.
Are we going to win the title or not?

They are but I guess that failed.

No but despite being mid table in the real table we are doing slightly better than Arsenal, Man Utd and Everton in the race for top 4

 

[Kendall]

Good concept, it should illustrate our consistent failure to achieve results above par. Losing to fucking West Brom at home is criminal. They're fucking awful.

 

[Spurger King]

It's all a load of bollocks though isn't it? A massive part of how well a team does in the league is mentality...especially when under pressure.

It's all very well and good saying "if we win x amount of home games blah blah blah" but as we've seen before, it's irrelevant if the team bottles it at the business end of the season.

 

[Kendall]

It's all a load of bollocks though isn't it? A massive part of how well a team does in the league is mentality...especially when under pressure.

It's all very well and good saying "if we win x amount of home games blah blah blah" but as we've seen before, it's irrelevant if the team bottles it at the business end of the season.

Yeah you're right, no point tuning in til the final day.

I think it shows a good illustration and snapshot as to how well teams have done relative to a universal par, particularly if you're not sure who our peer sides have played to earn/drop their points. I wouldn't say it's bollocks at all.

 

[beats1]

It's all a load of bollocks though isn't it? A massive part of how well a team does in the league is mentality...especially when under pressure.

It's all very well and good saying "if we win x amount of home games blah blah blah" but as we've seen before, it's irrelevant if the team bottles it at the business end of the season.

I agree but in the early stages it suggest where the teams are in the wider scheme of things

As for showing the mentality, look at liverpool in the 2013-14 graph they weren't in the title race and were in around us and Man Utd when we played them. After that win they started to turn around their win and you could see how a run of form of changed their season.

So whilst not predicting the mental effect of good form it can show the affect of it.

I don't think United are out of the top 4 race, but it the graph does show they need to change their form when they play these teams for the first time this season:
Chelsea
Man City
Southampton
Arsenal
Liverpool
Tottenham

 

[Matthew Wyatt]

It makes sense but would look better if the table (the OP's diagram 1) was sorted in place order rather than alphabetically; i.e;

Chelsea
Southampton
City
etc

 

[beats1]

It makes sense but would look better if the table (the OP's diagram 1) was sorted in place order rather than alphabetically; i.e;

Chelsea
Southampton
City
etc

Will do but might have to replace Tottenham with West Ham if both clubs form continues

 

[DiscoD1882]

I likes blinking I do.