- Feb 5, 2005
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I keep going back to that incredibly soft penalty against United. That decision and the VAR error against Bournemouth are absolutely massive now.
Rubbish, we were just crap.
I keep going back to that incredibly soft penalty against United. That decision and the VAR error against Bournemouth are absolutely massive now.
If Bournemouth hangs on here we could pass Leicester and Wolves and sneak CL (if City ban is upheld).
Leicester have matches against Sheffield, ManU and us. Wolves have matches against Burnley, Palace and Chelsea and they typically struggle against sides that set up defensively.
Stranger things have happened.
What about Sheffield who would need to win against Leicester. Don’t do it to yourself!
Let's wait for tomorrow's verdict and then we'll get the calculators out for 5th.
They decide if Man City gets CL or notWho's playing tomorrow?
What about Sheffield who would need to win against Leicester. Don’t do it to yourself!
Chelsea losing to Norwich would put the cat amongst the pigeons as unlikely as that may be.I like the positive posts here today, and it's not too much of a stretch for us to have CL qualification ALMOST back in our own hands after Thursday. We need 3 things to happen (that are not in our control)
Man City get Euro Ban for at least one season (find that out tomorrow, so if not the CL dream is over for us)
Burnley beat Wolves on Wednesday
Leicester and Sheffield draw on Thursday
Now if we get 9 points from last 3 games we will get 5th place AS LONG AS MAN UTD also beat Leicester last day too.
Obviously we need 3 wins, which is not that likely given our form, but all I'm saying is that it is almost in our own hands.
(I assume Wolves and Sheffield don't win final two games by 10 goal margins or similar)
Updated the post no one asked for!We should still try for 5th until it's mathematically impossible. To not do so would suggest a very poor mentality.
Is it possible? Just. To set things straight we will almost certainly need to win all our games.
So I'm not going to focus on us, because what we need to do is simple. So what about the competition, and what points can we expect.
Assuming a win against Bournemouth
Leicester
7 points ahead of us (effectively 8 with goal difference) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us.
predicted points estimate = 1-6 points, probably around 3.
My prediction
Bournmouth - 3 points 0 points
Sheffield United - 1 - 3 points
Tottenham - 0 points (again, in this hypothetical scenario I am assuming we win all our games!)
Man Utd - 0-1 point
So even in the lower estimate we are unlikely to close the gap. Leicester are not on good form at all, even including the palace result. But I just cant see them losing to Bournemouth, if they win that game, they will do enough. If they loose, then things might get interesting. We will find out very soon.
Man Utd
ahead of us by 6 points (effectively 7 with gd) with 4 games left.
They need 5 points to finish ahead of us
predicted points estimate: 6-15 points. My prediction 11 points
My prediction
Villa - 3 points 3 points
Southampton 1-3 points
Palace - 1-3 points
Chelsea - 0-3 points
Leicester - 1-3 points
So, I actually think Man Utd are more likely to be catch up-able that Leicester. It would require them to have a dip in form. Again if they fail to win against Villa things will look more rosy, but the lower estimate leaves very little leeway.
Wolves
ahead of us by 3 (we currently have effectively a better goal difference, but it's tight)
7 points needed to guarantee finishing ahead of us.
Predicted points estimate: 3-11 points. My prediction 8 points
Sheffield Utd 1point 0 points
Everton 0-3 points
Burnley 1-3 points
Crystal Palace 1-3
Chelsea 0-1
Wolves have a hard run coming up, the easiest game on paper is Palace, and Palace are a very unpredictable team. If we win all our games I suspect we will finish above Wolves.
Sheffield United
Ahead of us by 2 points (we have a better goal difference)
8 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 2-9 points. Prediction 6
Leicester 0-3 points
Everton 1-3 points
Southampton 1-3 points
Very possible to go ahead, but I could also see them win those three games, but suspect they will drop at least two points
Chelsea
Ahead of us by 8 points (we have effectively better goal difference than them, but its close)
2 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 3-7 points My prediction 4 points
Norwich 3 points
Man utd 0-3 points
Liverpool 0-1 points
Chelsea are not safe. Norwich is their make or break game. Lose that and they might be in trouble. Don't think it is realistic to pass them though.
Some cause for optimism. The teams ahead all have a very difficult last two fixtures. This is good because pressure can really do some strange things. If Leicester or Man utd go into the last two fixtures with 5 points separating us and them we have a chance (though they would probably play out for a tactical draw come the last game!) because these are tough fixtures and could easily end up with two loses. For Leicester we could even extend that to Sheffield Utd. If Leicester are I would say, 7 points ahead of us come the Sheffield utd game the pressure could see a collapse.
The problem is the fixtures before hand are more straightforward and they need to loose a lot of points to really make this viable. Similarly, winning all our games will be tough. Winning against Arsenal is very important, if we can make the Leicester game a bit of a cup final then we stand a small chance.
A set of bad results in the next game for both teams will change the complexion. I have them both as bankers, and they should be. If they get through those games ok, I see it as basically impossible, if they stumble we might just be able to slip in, if every little coin toss goes are way.All I really want is for us to apply as much pressure as possible to those ahead of us and try and if we are within 5 points in the last two games, just cross our fingers and hope the pressure of needing just that one point will be too much for them. It wont, but I would be proud of how we finished if we get it to that point.
Chelsea losing to Norwich would put the cat amongst the pigeons as unlikely as that may be.
Actually, as unlikely as that seems, it's a good point, since Chelsea then play Liverpool and Wolves (final day), even a draw against Norwich would leave them vulnerable with a goal difference just +5 on us (+14 vs +9)
I think City will win there CAB appeal tomorrow.. Emails were obtained ilegally & presented As evidence in isolation & not full relay of conversations.. It will be top 4 in CLJust popping in here and its probably been discussed and laughed at already, but 5th isn't inconceivable. Would require Leicester no more than at most drawing one of their remaining games, which isnt that unlikely to be fair, and wolves and Sheff doing some slipping up and us winning all three, but it is an outcome that does happen in some universe somewhere, just not this one sadly.
I think City will win there CAB appeal tomorrow.. Emails were obtained ilegally & presented As evidence in isolation & not full relay of conversations.. It will be top 4 in CL