What are your expectations for the season 21/22: The race for any position between 1st and 20th

[thebenjamin]

WYE AYE MAN

 

[SpursSince1980]

We did although that was Burnley away which is a different challenge altogether, but I agree with the sentiment of your post regardless. I'm always a little bit wary of teams who may sit back anyway and I'd like to think in needing a win they may attack a bit more but I'm not sure that logic really makes sense as they still have more of a chance of getting three points by just sitting back, making life difficult for us and trying to snatch one of their chances.

This will be their entire game plan, unless we go up by 2 goals. Then they will have to throw caution to the wind and try to pull something back. Either that, or go into damage control. Write this off as a loss and look to win one of their other games. Regardless, this will be hard. Very hard. We don’t seem to always do well in these noon games either. Let’s hope it’s different on Sunday.

Of course I’d love 4th, but I won’t feel like the sky is falling if we miss out, because of Arsenal winning their final two games, and us doing the same. The players and coach will be disappointed but also proud of how hard they pushed to achieve what looked impossible in January.

 

[JCRD]

We did although that was Burnley away which is a different challenge altogether, but I agree with the sentiment of your post regardless. I'm always a little bit wary of teams who may sit back anyway and I'd like to think in needing a win they may attack a bit more but I'm not sure that logic really makes sense as they still have more of a chance of getting three points by just sitting back, making life difficult for us and trying to snatch one of their chances.

They do need a win so like you mention, they do need to attack but i think how theyll attack is through the very route they beat us by - set pieces and free kicks. Our weakness is crosses and dealing with set pieces.

 

[mil1lion]

I fear that the Newcastle players will be on the beach already, as they are safe from relegation.

Hopefully the same beach they were on when they spanked us while we were chasing 2nd place

 

[midoNdefoe]

We’ll draw with Burnley and just as everyone is kicking the barrel from beneath their feet Newcastle beat arsenal and it goes to the final day… that’s my skewed prediction based on recent form and it’s unpredictability.

(hopefully saying this here makes it not happen and we cruise/scrape past Burnley)

 

[mil1lion]

Agree with all who are saying that Newcastle away is a very tough game

As I said in the match thread last night, there is also still a decent chance of Everton needing a result on the last day. Leeds winning this weekend is the key.

If Leeds win at the weekend (they basically have to to stay up) and Burnley lost to us then Burnley need to win on Thurs to keep it in their hands) then it would just need Everton to lose one of the next 2 games for them to require a point against Arse to be sure.

A few IFs but perfectly possible

So come on Leeds

It could help us playing first because if we beat Burnley it gives Leeds a big lift

 

[CoopsieDeadpool]

FWIW, 538 gives us a 47 % chance of finishing in the top 4.

There are some interesting numbers behind that calculation, though. They give Arsenal no more than 32,4 % chance of winning both their matches. That's quite low. We're given a 50,4 % chance of winning both of ours, which in turn yields a 16,3 % chance of that particular outcome, which of course would favour Arsenal, but if Arsenal win both, it doesn't matter what we do anyway. The scenario where we win both and Arsenal fail to do so, is at 34,1 %.

There's a 25,6 % chance that we end up with 4 points from these two matches. In that scenario, we need Arsenal to drop 3 points or more, which comes in at a surprisingly convincing 39,6 %. There's a 10,1 % chance that that scenario might happen.

The remaining percents in our 47 comes from the rather unlikely outcomes of 3 points for us, 2 or less for them (2,9 %), 2 points for us and 1 for them (0,4 %) and 1 for us and zero for them (0,1 %).

So in order of likelihood, we have:

6 points for us, 4 or less for them	34,1 %
6 points for them, what we do doesn't matter	32,4 %
4 points for them, 4 or less for us	13,8 %
4 points for us, 3 or less for them	10,1 %
3 points for them, 3 or less for us	5,1 %
3 points for us, 2 or less for them	2,9 %
Any other outcome that favours them	0,7 %
Any other outcome that favours us	0,5 %

How useful is this? Not very, as probabilities in football aren't really worth much, but it's fun to play around with. There are 81 possible outcomes from the four games, and 33 of those are good for us and 48 are good for Arsenal. The most likely single outcome is that we both win both matches, but the most likely scenario is that we win both and they don't.

 

[CoopsieDeadpool]

By the way, Burnley manager Mike Jackson just won MotM (Manager of the Month) which is usually the kiss of death

Depends how you define "kiss of death"?

From my perspective. It worked a treat when Nuno won it at the start of the season ?‍

 

[mil1lion]

It really felt like a momentum shifter this week but we'll see. I would be surprised if arsenal win their last 2 games so we have to win ours.

 

[Athenspur]

Conte was spot on when he said that we should at least protect the 1 point v Brighton, although we didn't appreciate it at the time. That lost point may be the difference between 4th and 5th.
Oh well, I think we'll make it anyway. My prediction is, Arsenal will drop points in both their games. Let's make sure we don't slip on the banana skin tomorrow.

 

[mil1lion]

Conte was spot on when he said that we should at least protect the 1 point v Brighton, although we didn't appreciate it at the time. That lost point may be the difference between 4th and 5th.
Oh well, I think we'll make it anyway. My prediction is, Arsenal will drop points in both their games. Let's make sure we don't slip on the banana skin tomorrow.

I hate picking out individual games though, Brighton was just more recent so its easy to think back to that. On the flip side we turned 0 points to 3 deep in injury time at Leicester. There will always be games you win that you probably shouldn't and ones you should win but don't. 8 points taken off City and Liverpool but silly losses especially at home for example. Arsenal have games they could say they shouldnt have lost or drew etc too. If we miss out on 4th it's down to the season as a whole rather than any individual moment, same for them. You can guarantee if Arsenal miss out they will think its simply because they didn't win the last 2 games. It goes up and down as the season goes on though and momentum is crucial. They have a run of form then we have a run etc. I just hope this is the time where their form dips as ours goes up and it will have come at the perfect time. Of course we won 4 straight then lost and drew, arsenal won 4 and then lost so they could do likewise.

 

[Thenewcat]

I hate picking out individual games though, Brighton was just more recent so its easy to think back to that. On the flip side we turned 0 points to 3 deep in injury time at Leicester. There will always be games you win that you probably shouldn't and ones you should win but don't. 8 points taken off City and Liverpool but silly losses especially at home for example. Arsenal have games they could say they shouldnt have lost or drew etc too. If we miss out on 4th it's down to the season as a whole rather than any individual moment, same for them. You can guarantee if Arsenal miss out they will think its simply because they didn't win the last 2 games. It goes up and down as the season goes on though and momentum is crucial. They have a run of form then we have a run etc. I just hope this is the time where their form dips as ours goes up and it will have come at the perfect time. Of course we won 4 straight then lost and drew, arsenal won 4 and then lost so they could do likewise.

Agreed. On a similar note I wouldn’t have expected Arsenal to get 6 points from Chelsea and West Ham away at any other time of the season, but I’m sure we’ve played people bang out of from or suffering from injuries at times too

 

[cjsimba]

We’ll beat Burnley then Arsenal will lose to Newcastle meaning we only need a point at Norwich ?

then 1-0 to Norwich….

 

[Ruffinthepuffin]

I believe we’ll win our last two games and then I can ask no more, although I’ll be gutted beyond belief if that’s not enough the team held up under real pressure.

Let’s do this. COYS !!!! ??

 

[Delboy75]

Last home game Newcastle are full in already in stadium organising the flags and we know Arsenal don’t like Tifos. Gonna be a bear pit

 

[hughy]

Last home game Newcastle are full in already in stadium organising the flags and we know Arsenal don’t like Tifos. Gonna be a bear pit

Arsenal are gonna hate the sight of Tifo's by Tuesday.

 

[Delboy75]

Wednesday be very tough for Chelsea after this whatever happens. They might be in it till last day.

 

[Flobadob]

Wednesday be very tough for Chelsea after this whatever happens. They might be in it till last day.

You’re an incredible optimist but the chances of them losing against Watford are incredibly slim

 

[Ginola+Tonic]

I’m sorry but there’s no way this depleted, toothless Arsenal team wins both their last two games, they’ve been very lucky to get into this position in the first place.

We take care of ourselves and win both of our games and I’m very confident of top 4.

 

[Mate]

I hate picking out individual games though, Brighton was just more recent so its easy to think back to that. On the flip side we turned 0 points to 3 deep in injury time at Leicester. There will always be games you win that you probably shouldn't and ones you should win but don't. 8 points taken off City and Liverpool but silly losses especially at home for example. Arsenal have games they could say they shouldnt have lost or drew etc too. If we miss out on 4th it's down to the season as a whole rather than any individual moment, same for them. You can guarantee if Arsenal miss out they will think its simply because they didn't win the last 2 games. It goes up and down as the season goes on though and momentum is crucial. They have a run of form then we have a run etc. I just hope this is the time where their form dips as ours goes up and it will have come at the perfect time. Of course we won 4 straight then lost and drew, arsenal won 4 and then lost so they could do likewise.

The game that still irritates me most is Southampton away. We were denied 2 clear goals (dodgy VAR offside and the 'foul' on Forster) which could be the defining factor in this race