What are your expectations for the season 21/22: The race for any position between 1st and 20th

[Adam456]

Agree with all who are saying that Newcastle away is a very tough game

As I said in the match thread last night, there is also still a decent chance of Everton needing a result on the last day. Leeds winning this weekend is the key.

If Leeds win at the weekend (they basically have to to stay up) and Burnley lost to us then Burnley need to win on Thurs to keep it in their hands) then it would just need Everton to lose one of the next 2 games for them to require a point against Arse to be sure.

A few IFs but perfectly possible

So come on Leeds

 

[Adam456]

By the way, Burnley manager Mike Jackson just won MotM (Manager of the Month) which is usually the kiss of death

 

[Yantino]

I think it’s very possible to see the goons implode now. Manager is whining and whinging which shows he’s under pressure and this will filter down to the players. They have several key injuries too.

They will get a tough game at Newcastle IMO. We just need to win our game against Burnley and then watch and see what happens.

 

[Yantino]

If we do achieve 4th it will an incredible achievement. As I’ve said many times this season, this always was a season of transition. The wider squad quality is poor and the drop of in performance when we’ve lost key first 11 players is noticeable. So to get 4th would be over achieving IMO but of course very welcome.

 

[Adam456]

If we do achieve 4th it will an incredible achievement. As I’ve said many times this season, this always was a season of transition. The wider squad quality is poor and the drop of in performance when we’ve lost key first 11 players is noticeable. So to get 4th would be over achieving IMO but of course very welcome.

Agree and if we do get 4th we need to get our business done nice and early to get any new players bedded in for the season. This 5 subs change is going to give the big clubs even more scope to have 2 first elevens. Of course there are always undroppable players but you have the chance to give most players a game and a half a week.

If it's just the Europa then we should really be able to manage it with many of the backup players we already have

 

[teok]

By the way, Burnley manager Mike Jackson just won MotM (Manager of the Month) which is usually the kiss of death

 

[JCRD]

I dont think we should underestimate Burnley. I mean it will be the total opposite to last nights game. Its midday, its against a team who will sit back, the come down after the high - just wont be easy

Didnt we lose against Burnley after Man City away?

 

[Yantino]

I dont think we should underestimate Burnley. I mean it will be the total opposite to last nights game. Its midday, its against a team who will sit back, the come down after the high - just wont be easy

Didnt we lose against Burnley after Man City away?

we did.

 

[ajspurs]

I dont think we should underestimate Burnley. I mean it will be the total opposite to last nights game. Its midday, its against a team who will sit back, the come down after the high - just wont be easy

Didnt we lose against Burnley after Man City away?

We did although that was Burnley away which is a different challenge altogether, but I agree with the sentiment of your post regardless. I'm always a little bit wary of teams who may sit back anyway and I'd like to think in needing a win they may attack a bit more but I'm not sure that logic really makes sense as they still have more of a chance of getting three points by just sitting back, making life difficult for us and trying to snatch one of their chances.

 

[rossdapep]

We have beaten Burnley 3-0 and 5-0 at home last two occasions. One of those games they tried to sit back too.

An early goal will change everything so we have to start fast

 

[mark87]

We have beaten Burnley 3-0 and 5-0 at home last two occasions. One of those games they tried to sit back too.

An early goal will change everything so we have to start fast

Worst thing that can happen is an early goal for them because they will sit back like we did against Liverpool so we need to get in their faces from the off.

 

[wrd]

We have beaten Burnley 3-0 and 5-0 at home last two occasions. One of those games they tried to sit back too.

An early goal will change everything so we have to start fast

They have a game Thursday and I think that makes it even more beneficial to start fast. I think if I was a coach I'd be thinking if we put a significant investment of our energy into the opening 15-20 and blow them out the water then their minds will be thinking this games gone and focus on the midweek game. If we start slow then they'll believe more and more there's something in this game for them. I know all 3 games have vital points available but the reality is we're the toughest game they have left, they have a game spare over Leeds and whilst I'm sure they'll value trying to secure safety as quickly as possible, they'll know they have the extra game and this is not the hill to die on in the grand scheme of the remaining games if we manage to get a strong lead early on.

 

[SirHarryHotspur]

Our home form against Burnely in PL is very good , just the one draw, turn up with the right attitude and we should win this . Of course if we beat Burnley this will give Everton a boost before their home game later on Sunday, I fear we will be relying on Everton playing for pride in their last game against Arsenal reckon they will be safe by then
Come on you Magpies , Trips we need you!!!!!

https://www.11v11.com/teams/tottenham-hotspur/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Burnley/

 

[Dillspur]

I fear that the Newcastle players will be on the beach already, as they are safe from relegation.

It's hard to call, on 1 hand they have been destroyed by the top 5. But, only Pool and City have better form since Howe took over, it's also their last home game of the season, the mood around the fans has definitely improved and a Monday night under the lights, I expect the atmosphere will be rocking, I think they'll want to go out on a high. Gooners are going there with a long injury list and a demoralizing loss.

 

[SirHarryHotspur]

It's hard to call, on 1 hand they have been destroyed by the top 5. But, only Pool and City have better form since Howe took over, it's also their last home game of the season, the mood around the fans has definitely improved and a Monday night under the lights, I expect the atmosphere will be rocking, I think they'll want to go out on a high. Gooners are going there with a long injury list and a demoralizing loss.

Hopefully Newcastle will play with the same passion as when they beat us 5-1 when already relegated.

 

[Dillspur]

Hopefully Newcastle will play with the same passion as when they beat us 5-1 when already relegated.

I was thinking about that the other day, they owe us a performance!

 

[The Scarecrow]

FWIW, 538 gives us a 47 % chance of finishing in the top 4.

There are some interesting numbers behind that calculation, though. They give Arsenal no more than 32,4 % chance of winning both their matches. That's quite low. We're given a 50,4 % chance of winning both of ours, which in turn yields a 16,3 % chance of that particular outcome, which of course would favour Arsenal, but if Arsenal win both, it doesn't matter what we do anyway. The scenario where we win both and Arsenal fail to do so, is at 34,1 %.

There's a 25,6 % chance that we end up with 4 points from these two matches. In that scenario, we need Arsenal to drop 3 points or more, which comes in at a surprisingly convincing 39,6 %. There's a 10,1 % chance that that scenario might happen.

The remaining percents in our 47 comes from the rather unlikely outcomes of 3 points for us, 2 or less for them (2,9 %), 2 points for us and 1 for them (0,4 %) and 1 for us and zero for them (0,1 %).

So in order of likelihood, we have:

6 points for us, 4 or less for them	34,1 %
6 points for them, what we do doesn't matter	32,4 %
4 points for them, 4 or less for us	13,8 %
4 points for us, 3 or less for them	10,1 %
3 points for them, 3 or less for us	5,1 %
3 points for us, 2 or less for them	2,9 %
Any other outcome that favours them	0,7 %
Any other outcome that favours us	0,5 %

How useful is this? Not very, as probabilities in football aren't really worth much, but it's fun to play around with. There are 81 possible outcomes from the four games, and 33 of those are good for us and 48 are good for Arsenal. The most likely single outcome is that we both win both matches, but the most likely scenario is that we win both and they don't.

 

[JW72]

By the way, Burnley manager Mike Jackson just won MotM (Manager of the Month) which is usually the kiss of death

Yes, it's bad, it's bad. Really, really bad.

 

[Westmorlandspur]

Agree with all who are saying that Newcastle away is a very tough game

As I said in the match thread last night, there is also still a decent chance of Everton needing a result on the last day. Leeds winning this weekend is the key.

If Leeds win at the weekend (they basically have to to stay up) and Burnley lost to us then Burnley need to win on Thurs to keep it in their hands) then it would just need Everton to lose one of the next 2 games for them to require a point against Arse to be sure.

A few IFs but perfectly possible

So come on Leeds

I would love Leeds to win but they look like they have had it. Brighton won’t give them a kick.

 

[Delboy75]

Last night was obviously huge for lots of reasons. But what it does set up imo is that if we win last 2 games but still fail to get top 4 I think it will be seen a bit like a glorious failure although in truth the losses to Wolves Southampton Brighton mean we will only have selves to blame. But I think generally the mood will be ok if we win the last 2 games whatever happens. Obviously be disappointing if don’t get it but I won’t be gutted and I’ll still be excited about what’s to come.