Transfer Signings and Point Totals of Top 6 Since January

[TH1239]

A lot has been made in the aftermath of the second transfer window of 2011 and the implications it will have on the eventual top 4 league finishers this season. I thought it would be useful to take a quick look at the recent form of the consensus top 6 clubs in the EPL, as well as their transfer activity during this calendar year (my apologies if I slightly miscalculated anything along the way).

Point Totals since January 1st

1. United: 51 points in 23 matches
2. Chelsea: 43 points in 22 matches
3. Liverpool: 43 points in 24 matches
4. City: 42 points in 21 matches
5. Arsenal: 33 points in 22 matches
6. Spurs: 29 points in 21 Matches

First Team Transfer Signings Since January (Approximate Money Totals[might be a few million off, as some fees were never confirmed])

1. Liverpool: Luis Suarez, Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, Jose Enrique, Jordan Henderson, Sebastian Coates, Craig Bellamy, Doni. Total Expenditure: 123 million

2. Chelsea: Fernando Torres, David Luiz, Juan Mata, Romelu Lukaku, Raul Meireles. Total Expenditure: 122 million

3. Manchester City: Kun Aguero, Samir Nasri, Edin Dzeko, Gael Clichy, Owen Hargreaves. Total Expenditure: 95 million

4. Manchester United: Ashley Young, David Da Gea, Phil Jones. Total Expenditure: 54 million

5. Arsenal: Gervinho, Park Chu Young, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Per Mertesacker, Andre Santos, Mikael Arteta, Yossi Benayoun(loan), Joel Campbell. Total Expenditure: 53 million

6. Tottenham: Steven Pienaar, Brad Friedal, Emannuel Adebayor(loan), Scott Parker. Total Expenditure: 8 million

Here are a few thoughts on the above:

-The sheer amount of spending by the club's at the top of the table is astounding, and the gap between the purchasing power of 4 of these clubs (and Arsenal to an extent) in relation to us will make short term success very difficult without a new stadium or other revenue sources.

-Liverpool have been a much stronger side than us since January. I don't think it's a coincidence that their rise has coincided with so many fresh faces, as well as Dalglish being back in the saddle. Many speculated that their success and positive spirit would be short lived, but their performance against Bolton last week showed they are going to be very much in the hunt for a Champions League place. Admittedly, their squad needed to be boosted, and they've paid heavy fees for a few of their players, but they've also gotten relatively excellent value in their signings of Suarez, Bellamy, Enrique, and Coates (fantastic player for those of you didn't see much of Uruguay this summer).

-Chelsea's net spending is patently absurd. In contrast, City have actually gotten better value dollar for dollar, as Dzeko, Aguero, and Nasri have transformed them into, what is in my opinion, the best team in the league. United have spent a relatively smaller sum, but got their business done early and have settled their three new starters into the first 11 well.

-Not only have us and Arsenal been the poorest sides since January, record wise, but we both have waited until quite late in the window to bring in replacements/reinforcements. Both clubs ended this year's transfers windows with a cash surplus in their dealings. They, of course, had much more quality to replace. The jury remains out on both of our squads new additions, but given that Mertesacker, Santos, Arteta, and Benayoun will likely be starters for them, and Parker and Adebayor for us, a lot depends on how quickly the new players settle and gel with their teammates.

As I see it, the keys for us making up for the lack of spending this summer will come down to: 1. Earning at least 8 points in our next 4 games to alter the tide of negativity surrounding our squad and manager, 2. Getting/Keeping our top players healthy, 3. Luka Modric playing his best and most passionate football, and 4. Emmanuel Adebayor scoring at least 20 goals in league play. Even if all four things happen (which is a longshot in my personal opinion), there is still a good chance we'll finish outside the top 4. It's not completely our fault, as the league is just extremely competitive at the moment. Bad timing for our rise to coincide with wealthy new owners taking over.

Nevertheless, this is setting up to be one of the more exciting EPL campaigns in some time for the top of the league.

 

[sloth]

A lot has been made in the aftermath of the second transfer window of 2011 and the implications it will have on the eventual top 4 league finishers this season. I thought it would be useful to take a quick look at the recent form of the consensus top 6 clubs in the EPL, as well as their transfer activity during this calendar year (my apologies if I slightly miscalculated anything along the way).

Point Totals since January 1st

1. United: 51 points in 23 matches
2. Chelsea: 43 points in 22 matches
3. Liverpool: 43 points in 24 matches
4. City: 42 points in 21 matches
5. Arsenal: 33 points in 22 matches
6. Spurs: 29 points in 21 Matches

First Team Transfer Signings Since January (Approximate Money Totals[might be a few million off, as some fees were never confirmed])

1. Liverpool: Luis Suarez, Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, Jose Enrique, Jordan Henderson, Sebastian Coates, Craig Bellamy, Doni. Total Expenditure: 123 million

2. Chelsea: Fernando Torres, David Luiz, Juan Mata, Romelu Lukaku, Raul Meireles. Total Expenditure: 122 million

3. Manchester City: Kun Aguero, Samir Nasri, Edin Dzeko, Gael Clichy, Owen Hargreaves. Total Expenditure: 95 million

4. Manchester United: Ashley Young, David Da Gea, Phil Jones. Total Expenditure: 54 million

5. Arsenal: Gervinho, Park Chu Young, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Per Mertesacker, Andre Santos, Mikael Arteta, Yossi Benayoun(loan), Joel Campbell. Total Expenditure: 53 million

6. Tottenham: Steven Pienaar, Brad Friedal, Emannuel Adebayor(loan), Scott Parker. Total Expenditure: 8 million

Here are a few thoughts on the above:

-The sheer amount of spending by the club's at the top of the table is astounding, and the gap between the purchasing power of 4 of these clubs (and Arsenal to an extent) in relation to us will make short term success very difficult without a new stadium or other revenue sources.

-Liverpool have been a much stronger side than us since January. I don't think it's a coincidence that their rise has coincided with so many fresh faces, as well as Dalglish being back in the saddle. Many speculated that their success and positive spirit would be short lived, but their performance against Bolton last week showed they are going to be very much in the hunt for a Champions League place. Admittedly, their squad needed to be boosted, and they've paid heavy fees for a few of their players, but they've also gotten relatively excellent value in their signings of Suarez, Bellamy, Enrique, and Coates (fantastic player for those of you didn't see much of Uruguay this summer).

-Chelsea's net spending is patently absurd. In contrast, City have actually gotten better value dollar for dollar, as Dzeko, Aguero, and Nasri have transformed them into, what is in my opinion, the best team in the league. United have spent a relatively smaller sum, but got their business done early and have settled their three new starters into the first 11 well.

-Not only have us and Arsenal been the poorest sides since January, record wise, but we both have waited until quite late in the window to bring in replacements/reinforcements. Both clubs ended this year's transfers windows with a cash surplus in their dealings. They, of course, had much more quality to replace. The jury remains out on both of our squads new additions, but given that Mertesacker, Santos, Arteta, and Benayoun will likely be starters for them, and Parker and Adebayor for us, a lot depends on how quickly the new players settle and gel with their teammates.

As I see it, the keys for us making up for the lack of spending this summer will come down to: 1. Earning at least 8 points in our next 4 games to alter the tide of negativity surrounding our squad and manager, 2. Getting/Keeping our top players healthy, 3. Luka Modric playing his best and most passionate football, and 4. Emmanuel Adebayor scoring at least 20 goals in league play. Even if all four things happen (which is a longshot in my personal opinion), there is still a good chance we'll finish outside the top 4. It's not completely our fault, as the league is just extremely competitive at the moment. Bad timing for our rise to coincide with wealthy new owners taking over.

Nevertheless, this is setting up to be one of the more exciting EPL campaigns in some time for the top of the league.

[Edit] Correlation or causation?

For instance did the same thing happen in previous years? Can you find a causal link every year or just this one?

Spurs for instance have over-hauled or narrowed the gap between us and the clubs above us despite spending far less each and every year for the last five years.

Other things to consider...

Liverpool changed their manager in that period.

How does the second half of the seasons compare to the first for some of those clubs?

What signings did the other clubs in the PL make compared to the six you highlighted - most of the game played in the period would have been against these clubs without knowing how clubs improved in relation to each other it's hard to have a thesis about the spending.

All of that said, we can say that in general the more a club spends the greater its success (as long as it doesn't go bust). We also know however that it's neither the only route or a guaranteed route.

 

[Lo Amo Speroni]

We did our spending a couple of years ago, by now the team should be settled and just need tweaking here and there with a slow intergration of some of the talented youngsters.

Without the revenue from a new larger stadium we cannot compete with the others in relation to wages but when we can, look out.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Yeah, I'm not shitting myself or throwing in the towel just yet. Good responses above

Liverpool have momentum and a lot of confidence, sure, but we've got a long way to go yet this year

 

[JimmyG2]

But that was then and this now.
Chelsea and Man.City have unlimited funds.
We are heavily reliant on the financial rules being effectively applied.
Without a stadium and/or some success we look like falling further and further behind.
As in the Modric saga our best players will be increasingly at risk and with them our hopes of progess again.
It's a downward spiral from here although we did it once.
Arsenal are suffering the same situation.

 

[Gilzeanking]

But that was then and this now.
Chelsea and Man.City have unlimited funds.
We are heavily reliant on the financial rules being effectively applied.
Without a stadium and/or some success we look like falling further and further behind.
As in the Modric saga our best players will be increasingly at risk and with them our hopes of progess again.
It's a downward spiral from here although we did it once.
Arsenal are suffering the same situation.

And heres the central core of the fury of sections of Spurs fans including myself . We had a tiny window in 2010 to change things and step up . Why why why was there no upgrade in striking options after the forward line that got us 4th was depleted with Gudjonssen's departure , in Summer 2010 or Winter 2010/11 .

Numerous successes from Levy and Redknapp in other areas make this catastrophic failure so baffling .

 

[TH1239]

[Edit] Correlation or causation?

For instance did the same thing happen in previous years? Can you find a causal link every year or just this one?

Spurs for instance have over-hauled or narrowed the gap between us and the clubs above us despite spending far less each and every year for the last five years.

Other things to consider...

Liverpool changed their manager in that period.

How does the second half of the seasons compare to the first for some of those clubs?

What signings did the other clubs in the PL make compared to the six you highlighted - most of the game played in the period would have been against these clubs without knowing how clubs improved in relation to each other it's hard to have a thesis about the spending.

All of that said, we can say that in general the more a club spends the greater its success (as long as it doesn't go bust). We also know however that it's neither the only route or a guaranteed route.

The overarching purpose of my post wasn't necessarily to make an argument for more spending equaling better results on the pitch, but instead, it was to highlight the sheer amount of investment our potential rivals have poured into their squads this calendar year, and how much the landscape has seemingly changed in terms of the raw amount of transfer money flooding into the market this past year from fiscally loose owners (I believe, to our detriment).

City, Chelsea, and Liverpool all improved their positions in the league table as the 2nd half of the domestic campaign progressed last season and have once again started this season amongst the top 4 (though it's exceptionally early). I think in Chelsea's case, Luiz certainly helped their backline after he arrived last season, and Suarez unquestionably was a sparkplug for Liverpool from February-May and has been in world class form since the Copa America. Dzeko took time to settle at City, but now is finally showing what an incredible talent he is.

I do think, in general, the more a club spends on incoming transfers, the better results they tend to achieve. Unfortunately, we aren't in a position to spend heavily on transfer fees (see Cahill yesterday), which is problematic when you are continually trying to challenge other clubs that can. In our recent history, when we spent the heaviest amount in 2008-2009, we followed up the next season by finishing a historic 4th. I don't think that was a coincidence, as a number of the priciest players we brought in (Palacios, Defoe, Gomes, Modric) were largely responsible for us escaping relegation and pushing on to success the next domestic campaign. We obviously can't afford to do that every season, but that certainly doesn't mean some of our rivals can't, which is unfortunate in the short term.

There are, of course, some clubs who attain and sustain success without continually spending heavily. Porto and Dortmund are two of the more recent examples. Typically, though, in order to pull that route off, you need a fantastic scouting network, a great youth setup, and a world class manager who is not only tactically sound, but who can develop and nurture younger talent (Mourinho, Villas-Boas, and Klopp are some of the best at this).

 

[tRiKS]

i'd like to wait to see liverpool play City and utd before i subscribe to them being better than us to the extent thsoe "stats" portray

 

[Graysonti]

We need our Stadium NOW

 

[NEVILLEB]

There's a lot of hot air on this page.

It's as simple as the teams around us having significantly improved their 1st teams and are pulling away from us.

We spent a lot of money to get level with them, now they've spent a lot to rise above us.

 

[tRiKS]

also... the second half results don't accurately represent what other fixtures the clubs had. SPurs had CL games which affected points hauls. I also remark that when LFC and Spurs played each other at the end of the season there was a gap between the two sides... we were comfortabley a level better.

 

[venablesphil]

i'd like to wait to see liverpool play City and utd before i subscribe to them being better than us to the extent thsoe "stats" portray

Agree with this. Liverpool got a great result at Arsenal but they didn't set the world alight. Arsenal were just really poor! I don't think Liverpool have been tested yet this year. Arsenal have sold their two best players. It would be like us selling Modric and Bale. I don't they have replaced Nasri and Fabregras with what they have brought.

I think Liverpool and Arsenal are the people we are challenging for fourth and I still think we have better squads than them without heavy investment.

As for City, Chelsea and Man Utd - they are in a diffferent leauge on money terms and players they can attract so no point even really comparing to them at the moment in my eyes. A bit deaftist I know but I think that is the scernerio at the moment.

 

[NEVILLEB]

also... the second half results don't accurately represent what other fixtures the clubs had. SPurs had CL games which affected points hauls. I also remark that when LFC and Spurs played each other at the end of the season there was a gap between the two sides... we were comfortabley a level better.

Come on! You don't see a correlation between significantly improving your 1st team and getting more points?

You don't see what Suarez has added to Liverpool?

Managers are, for the most part, over rated. Players win games and the better ones you have, the more likely you are to do well.

Avram Grant nearly won the Champions League with Chelsea but finished bottom with West Ham

We need a new stadium and investment. Full stop.

 

[sheringmann]

Come on! You don't see a correlation between significantly improving your 1st team and getting more points?

You don't see what Suarez has added to Liverpool?

Managers are, for the most part, over rated. Players win games and the better ones you have the more likely you are to do well.

Avram Grant nearly won the Champions League with Chelsea but finished bottom with West Ham

We need a new stadium and investment. Full stop.

:clap:

 

[Booney]

Was always a nagging worry that we were get so addicted to the glitz and glamour of the Champs League that we would start "living the dream" and mortgaging the clubs future to stay there.

I actuallly think Levy accepts that it will take an exceptional season once evry few years to get us into the top four but that we have no right to expect it every season. Priority should be keeping us competitive until we get a new stadium.

 

[tRiKS]

Come on! You don't see a correlation between significantly improving your 1st team and getting more points?

You don't see what Suarez has added to Liverpool?

Managers are, for the most part, over rated. Players win games and the better ones you have, the more likely you are to do well.

Avram Grant nearly won the Champions League with Chelsea but finished bottom with West Ham

We need a new stadium and investment. Full stop.

thats not really Whatt i said. Liverpool have improved. But end of last season THFC,admittedly with King in the side, looked a better side and i attribute much of the points gap from january onawards to lots to point dropped by us in preparation for and recovery from CL games.

LFC have spent more to improve more, Spurs have also improved. All considered LFC are at best level with us not above. I'd take Suarez, reina and Gerard form them to make up a combined best 11. And whats left would still only half fill the combined bench.

 

[Booney]

Another way of looking at it, is that 5 of the teams above us have spent over £50million quid in transfer fees alone and only 4 of them will make Champs League. That is going to very rapidly become unsustainable for at least one team.

 

[NEVILLEB]

I think we were level with them before they signed Bellamy.

We can still finish above them but their strikers are very potent and should score lots of goals.

 

[tRiKS]

I think we were level with them before they signed Bellamy.

We can still finish above them but their strikers are very potent and should score lots of goals.

i think bellamy has much to offer but lets not over state him as player

Reina

Kaboul King Gallas BAE

Sandro Parker

Gerard Modric Bale

Suarez

subs

Friedle/gnomes

VDV, Lennon, Adam, Downing, Bellamy, Carra
11 plays 7...

edited: carragher for Huddletone better balance

 

[sloth]

There's a lot of hot air on this page.

It's as simple as the teams around us having significantly improved their 1st teams and are pulling away from us.

We spent a lot of money to get level with them, now they've spent a lot to rise above us.

We have spent a minimum of £30m a season less on players than have Liverpool, Arsenal, Utd and Chelsea each year for the last five years. That's a minimum of £150m less than our rivals. In the last two years you can add City to that list.

How then do you figure we've closed the gap by spending more than them? We haven't, in fact we've closed the gap even though we've spent less than them!

Come on! You don't see a correlation between significantly improving your 1st team and getting more points?

For a start you've got that the wrong way around, getting more points tells you you've significantly improved your first team. It is the only measure in fact. You cannot say I have improved my first team but got fewer points (though I guess there's something to be said for improvement being a relative measure; if you improve but your rivals improve more the in relation to them you've gone backwards even if the over all quality of your team has increased... I'm rambling...).

The question is the methods you use to improve your first team. Some suggestions:

1. Buy off-the-shelf players of proven quality. It's expensive but improvement is more certain - but not guaranteed (see Liverpool).

2. Continuously buy players for the future and develop them at the club. This is cheaper, but more hit and miss.

3. Employ a great coach and manager, who maximises the performance of the squad he has.

Each club must cut their cloth according to what they can afford and what is available.

You don't see what Suarez has added to Liverpool?

Managers are, for the most part, over rated. Players win games and the better ones you have, the more likely you are to do well.

Avram Grant nearly won the Champions League with Chelsea but finished bottom with West Ham

But the manager decides which players to buy doesn't he? Whose team did Grant get to CL final with?

I agree that the better players you have the more likely you are to do well. Is Falcao good? Cavani? Dzeko? Adebayour? Messi? How much did they cost when they were snapped up by the clubs at which they made their name? Yes they're better players, but they were better players before they commanded the huge transfer fees and clubs identified them as such.

We need a new stadium and investment. Full stop.

Agreed about the stadium. How can we afford to build one? What should we do to raise the capital?