Shots conceded

coys200

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While laughing at Arsenal for being 98th of 98 top flight European teams for shots conceded we are actually 96th. I’ve noticed this for ages, definitely all 2019. Hence the feeling we are never truly in control of game. Even Saturday although our win looked comfortable Palace actually had more shots on target. With better quality they could easily have grabbed a couple. The only logical reason I can conclude is the absence of a typical DM. I remember in 16/17 with Dier at his peak when we went 1-0 up the game felt as good as done we conceded so few goals. For however good Winks has been I still feel we are a better balanced team with a sturdy DM. We have so much quality going forward there’s enough there to not need a ball playing DM imo. Maybe I’m wrong that the issue is at DM, but hard to think of another explanation. Something that has to be addressed or we will really suffer against better quality finishing.
 

JimmyG2

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While laughing at Arsenal for being 98th of 98 top flight European teams for shots conceded we are actually 96th. I’ve noticed this for ages, definitely all 2019. Hence the feeling we are never truly in control of game. Even Saturday although our win looked comfortable Palace actually had more shots on target. With better quality they could easily have grabbed a couple. The only logical reason I can conclude is the absence of a typical DM. I remember in 16/17 with Dier at his peak when we went 1-0 up the game felt as good as done we conceded so few goals. For however good Winks has been I still feel we are a better balanced team with a sturdy DM. We have so much quality going forward there’s enough there to not need a ball playing DM imo. Maybe I’m wrong that the issue is at DM, but hard to think of another explanation. Something that has to be addressed or we will really suffer against better quality finishing.
Game plan:
We know Hugo will stop'em
 

Shadydan

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Well to be fair we've played away to City and Arsenal who have two of the most potent attacks in the league, we've conceded 30 shots against City and 26 against Arsenal which makes up 2/3rds of the total amount having said that we haven't really been defending properly as a team, we were too easy to play through and not stopping our opponents enough, if most of the chances were coming from the middle I think you'd have a point but their equally coming from all areas which suggests that it's a team issue.

 

coys200

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Well to be fair we've played away to City and Arsenal who have two of the most potent attacks in the league, we've conceded 30 shots against City and 26 against Arsenal which makes up 2/3rds of the total amount having said that we haven't really been defending properly as a team, we were too easy to play through and not stopping our opponents enough, if most of the chances were coming from the middle I think you'd have a point but their equally coming from all areas which suggests that it's a team issue.

That said we aren’t giving up that many clear cut chances even against City and Arsenal a lot of speculative efforts. But I’m sure I saw our overall pressing is way down. Just feels like we are easy to get at up to the penalty area but then we defend well.
 

cliff jones

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good point. I agree with others that this early in the season most numbers are skewed- we haven't played a representative sample of opponenents yet.

My problem in the past two seasons has not been been conceding three or four decent scoring chances to the opposition, more that we'd create only that number ourselves while wasting endless fist half minutes in particular switching back and forth without any penetration or element of suprise whatsoever.

I don't mind us doing that when we've made a high tempo start and got our noses in front. But not right from the off
 

guiltyparty

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Well to be fair we've played away to City and Arsenal who have two of the most potent attacks in the league, we've conceded 30 shots against City and 26 against Arsenal which makes up 2/3rds of the total amount having said that we haven't really been defending properly as a team, we were too easy to play through and not stopping our opponents enough, if most of the chances were coming from the middle I think you'd have a point but their equally coming from all areas which suggests that it's a team issue.

I was thinking this re: everyone noshing themselves in the press over Liverpool. They have had a very easy start compared to City and us.

Liverpool

W - Norwich (H) - promoted side before they got their tails up at home, banker
W - Southampton (A) - Liverpool did the double over them last two seasons to the tune of 11-1
W - Arsenal (H) - Liverpool not lost to Arsenal at home since 2012 and not at all since 2015
W - Burnley (A) - beaten Liverpool once in the league ever
W - Newcastle (H) - 4th bottom, haven't lost at home to them since 1994

Then us:

W - Aston Villa (H) - promoted side before they got their tails up at home, banker
D - Man City (A) - last year's Champions away, we had lost the previous 4 games in the league to them home and away
L - Newcastle (H) - Unforgivable, didn't turn up, but we've lost twice in a season to them under Pochettino before and we actually lost to them at home three seasons in a row 2013-15 so could almost call them a bogey side
D - Arsenal (A) - Biggest London derby away, where we'd lost there last 2 seasons and haven't won since 2010
W - Crystal Palace (H) - London derby that has turned into a bit of a banker but against a side who've beaten City, Utd and Arsenal away over the past 9 months

I know it's all ifs and buts but do think broadly people seem to be ignoring that Liverpool have steamrollered a whole load of nothing so far, whereas while we've been unimpressive, we've actually got some very decent results. Even a point against Newcastle I think would give the whole season a very different complexion
 

JKendall13

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Something to monitor but when 40% of our games have taken place at the Ethiad and Emirates, it's likely more of a small sample size issue.
 

coys200

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City and Arsenal away has obviously skewed it a bit. But still a top 4 team and CL finalists should not be 96th out of 98 in Europe.
 

Lighty64

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City and Arsenal away has obviously skewed it a bit. But still a top 4 team and CL finalists should not be 96th out of 98 in Europe.
well wait until we are halfway through the season to then see where we are
 

werty

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Our expected goals against, the purple line below, suggests that we're either facing a lot more shots or a higher quality chances over the last two seasons than we have in the previous season, and it's trending in the wrong direction.

1568646319694.png
 

tobi

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It'll probably even itself out over the season but standing off opponents when under pressure doesn't help.
 

JimmyG2

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We've just won 4-0
we're third in the league
off the back of a CL final appearance.

Rejoice, be happy.
if you possibly can.

Palace had more shots than us
but they didn't fuckin' score.
FACT.
 
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Spurs 1961

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I was at the game. The Palace shots were in almost every case powder puff no hope kicks towards the goal that a junior school keeper would swallow up. Most of the time we blocked them off from having any serious attempts. Likewise I have been to games where we have had well over 20 shots but never looked liked scoring; these stats need to be taken with more than a pinch of salt
 

Lighty64

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We've just won 4-0
we're third in the league
off the back of a CL appearance.

Rejoice, be happy.
if you possibly can.

Palace had more shots than us
but they didn't fuckin' score.
FACT.
some people always have to find negatives, even after a positive. At least it's very easy to catch up on the forum the last few days, unlike when we lose or draw and the WUM's come out in force.
 

dudu

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While laughing at Arsenal for being 98th of 98 top flight European teams for shots conceded we are actually 96th. I’ve noticed this for ages, definitely all 2019. Hence the feeling we are never truly in control of game. Even Saturday although our win looked comfortable Palace actually had more shots on target. With better quality they could easily have grabbed a couple. The only logical reason I can conclude is the absence of a typical DM. I remember in 16/17 with Dier at his peak when we went 1-0 up the game felt as good as done we conceded so few goals. For however good Winks has been I still feel we are a better balanced team with a sturdy DM. We have so much quality going forward there’s enough there to not need a ball playing DM imo. Maybe I’m wrong that the issue is at DM, but hard to think of another explanation. Something that has to be addressed or we will really suffer against better quality finishing.
I wonder what our % of goals conceded from those shots are and how they compare. Surley that is a more relevant stat.

It appears we are currently 5th at converting our shots to goals.

Edit. In the prem

 

carmeldevil

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Curious if they have stats showing how many "quality" shots were made? I can imagine determining what a quality shot would be subjective but I know this is actually tabulated in other sports.

I looked around at various football stats sites but couldn't find any.
 

spids

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Curious if they have stats showing how many "quality" shots were made? I can imagine determining what a quality shot would be subjective but I know this is actually tabulated in other sports.

I looked around at various football stats sites but couldn't find any.
Look at xG stat (expected goals).

The BBC have quite a good write up on how it works here (couple of years old but shows how awesome Kane was back then):


You can find a league table with xGf xGa columns here:


Liverpool and us have been the most clinical - i.e. we have scored more than the xG stats say we should have based on the quality of the chances (both +4).
 
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carmeldevil

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Look at xG stat (expected goals).

The BBC have quite a good write up on how it works here (couple of years old but shows how awesome Kane was back then):


You can find a league table with xGf xGa columns here:


Liverpool and us have been the most clinical - i.e. we have scored more than the xG stats say we should have based on the quality of the chances (both +4).

Perfect. I love this kind of stuff. Thanks
 

Hakkz

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Look at xG stat (expected goals).

The BBC have quite a good write up on how it works here (couple of years old but shows how awesome Kane was back then):


You can find a league table with xGf xGa columns here:


Liverpool and us have been the most clinical - i.e. we have scored more than the xG stats say we should have based on the quality of the chances (both +4).
The three teams with lowest xG score are Newcastle, Aston villa and Crystal palace... :LOL:
 
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