Of the 25 games that we have played so far, we have won 19.
Of our remaining 13 games -
- if we win at least 10, arsenal cannot overtake us. We would need even less wins if arsenal drop more points down the line.
- if we win at least 10, United will, at best, be only level on points. We would again need less wins if they drop more points.
- if we win at least 11, Chelsea cannot overtake us and again we would need to win less games if Chelsea drop more points in their remaining matches.
Arsenal still have to play United (H) and us (A). They also have to play Wolves (A) - not an easy game.
United have still to play Chelsea (H), Liverpool (H), City (H) and Arsenal (A). In addition, they also have to play Wolves (A)
Chelsea have to play us (H), Liverpool (A), City (A) and United (A). They also have Wolves (H)
Those 3 will drop more points as the season progresses which would allow us to win less than 10 of our remaining games to secure top 4 this season.
We need to win as many games but all is not lost (for CL next season) as we can afford to lose a few of our remaining games. And yes - we can afford to lose our away games against City, Pool & Chelsea and still secure top four (if we maximise wins in our other remaining games).
If we want to win the title, we have to hope that Liverpool drop more points. City are just a win away from us overtaking them. If Pool loses tomorrow and City beats Everton on Wednesday , City go top (albeit after playing a game more). This will put a lot of pressure on pool and they may (hopefully) buckle further.
For me, I think our top priority is securing a top four place and if things go bad for pool & City, then hopefully, we should be close enough to try and challenge them for the title.
Thanks for working out all scenarios.