Harry Kane

[WiganSpur]

A few thoughts along this thread:

1. Too many have convinced themselves that Kane going to Germany doesn't make sense. If it doesn't make sense, then we potentially don't understand the situation. Like in chess, take the time now to prove your theory wrong. If you can't, then play the move in accordance with that theory.

2. So, how could the theory be wrong?
a. He is in his prime and does not want to waste even one more year in the uneven management of Spurs without playing at the highest competitive level (i.e., he is competitive and wants to compete now).
b. There is a personal issue with Spurs management (e.g., gentlemen's agreement) that in principle he cannot tolerate any longer.
c. He is underpaid and risks long-term injury and massive financial consequence in the last year of his contract.
d. etc., etc.

3. In my opinion, there are a lot of reasons why going to Germany makes sense to a professional footballer at the height of their career, and not to us average joes.

Surely a or b are most likely given we'd probably offer him more than Bayern?

 

[Styopa]

You're often repeating this as if it is so binary - get £80M or 0.

I want to cling on to the slim possibility that we improve enough next year, that makes Kane think "You know what, my family and I are happy here, so why I don't I stick around for the rest of my career, smash the PL record and watch them build my statue outside the stadium."

My point is that rather than having to reinvest £80M on players that are inferior to Kane, how about we keep Kane for several more years which will be worth far more than we get by spending £80M.

But this point has been addressed many times. Many people think the possibility we improve enough in a single season to convince him we are a better option than everyone from Man City to Chelsea to Real Madrid is very slim. Thus they think we are better off selling now for various reasons (not just the money) rather than taking the bet on very long odds that he will play for us beyond next season.

You are, of course, free to cling to that possibility, but the fact you or anyone wants to cling to it doesn't make it any more likely. I wanted Berbatov, Modric and Bale to stay, but my wishing didn't impact their decisions. I want us to win the league this season but we probably won't.

The situation with Harry is different to those players, but then again, he has arguably given us his best years already, unlike the above, who left at their peak. He will also probably have more options than those mentioned above, provided he doesn't sign a new contract.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

You're often repeating this as if it is so binary - get £80M or 0.

I want to cling on to the slim possibility that we improve enough next year, that makes Kane think "You know what, my family and I are happy here, so why I don't I stick around for the rest of my career, smash the PL record and watch them build my statue outside the stadium."

My point is that rather than having to reinvest £80M on players that are inferior to Kane, how about we keep Kane for several more years which will be worth far more than we get by spending £80M.

I don't think you will find many people who don't want Kane to sign a new contract with Spurs - including me.

But, if he is not going to sign a new contract, and he is going to leave - then, as a club, we are better off with selling him to a non-PL club, than we are letting him go for free to a competitor.


I also don't think Kane "loves" Spurs the way many people seem to think he does - he has been saying, since very early in his career, that he wants to stay at Spurs as long as they match his ambition. You could not make a very compelling argument that Spurs match his ambition.

My personal feeling is that Kane would ideally like to set the PL record AND win big trophies, but that if he could do only one, he would choose to compete for/win League and CL trophies. So, I don't think there is anything Spurs can do this year to convince him to stay - particularly when teams like Bayern and RM or Barça reach out to him for a pre-contract in January.

Kane wanted to leave 2 years ago. We have gone backwards in that time. I can't envision a scenario where Kane sees a small improvement and decides to sign a new deal next summer.

 

[Dunc2610]

I don't think you will find many people who don't want Kane to sign a new contract with Spurs - including me.

But, if he is not going to sign a new contract, and he is going to leave - then, as a club, we are better off with selling him to a non-PL club, than we are letting him go for free to a competitor.


I also don't think Kane "loves" Spurs the way many people seem to think he does - he has been saying, since very early in his career, that he wants to stay at Spurs as long as they match his ambition. You could not make a very compelling argument that Spurs match his ambition.

My personal feeling is that Kane would ideally like to set the PL record AND win big trophies, but that if he could do only one, he would choose to compete for/win League and CL trophies. So, I don't think there is anything Spurs can do this year to convince him to stay - particularly when teams like Bayern and RM or Barça reach out to him for a pre-contract in January.

Kane wanted to leave 2 years ago. We have gone backwards in that time. I can't envision a scenario where Kane sees a small improvement and decides to sign a new deal next summer.

You say this like the club have a choice, if no one wants to buy him this year, then you as much as anyone might not want him to go to another Prem club he can. Infact, he may decide to see out his contract so he can do just that.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

You say this like the club have a choice, if no one wants to buy him this year, then you as much as anyone might not want him to go to another Prem club he can. Infact, he may decide to see out his contract so he can do just that.

If Kane loved Spurs as much as some think - he would agree to a sale to Bayern.

ETA - or agree to a new contract with Spurs.

A player can always be sold - you just have to negotiate the price. If you price a player out of a move - that is on the selling club - not an indication that no one wants to buy him.

 

[Dunc2610]

If Kane loved Spurs as much as some think - he would agree to a sale to Bayern.

ETA - or agree to a new contract with Spurs.

A player can always be sold - you just have to negotiate the price. If you price a player out of a move - that is on the selling club - not an indication that no one wants to buy him.

Why would agree to go to Bayern, if its not what he wants, or what he feels best for his family, he's not going to say yes to that is he?

 

[doom]

get him on a contract with a release clause of say 70m activated next year and a big bonus now. Win/win

 

[Styopa]

Why would agree to go to Bayern, if its not what he wants, or what he feels best for his family, he's not going to say yes to that is he?

I think it's highly plausible he would reject Bayern in favour of leaving on a free next summer. He will be able to stay in England in that case, which many people believe is very important to him. He may even stay in London.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Why would agree to go to Bayern, if its not what he wants, or what he feels best for his family, he's not going to say yes to that is he?

By many accounts he has already said yes...

He is not making a life-long commitment to Bayern, and I understand they have a good kindergarten program in Germany for the kids!

 

[sidford]

get him on a contract with a release clause of say 70m activated next year and a big bonus now. Win/win

Not for him it's not. If he signed that and wanted to move next season there is no guarantee at all that someone would be willing to spend 70m to sign him on top of paying his wages etc. It's a win for spurs but not him.

 

[chas vs dave]

get him on a contract with a release clause of say 70m activated next year and a big bonus now. Win/win

Do you think he would sign that?

If I was in his shoes, I wouldn't.

 

[DFF]

This is often repeated as a reason for not selling Kane, but makes no sense whatsoever.

A team with £80m to invest always has a chance at a better ROI, than a team with £0 to invest. Always.

And, given the track record of the recent recruiting team, it’s not even close. We will be a much better team if we replace Kane with £80m worth of players than if we replace Kane with £0.

Stop repeating this fallacy. We don’t need to sell Kane to spend £80m on anyone. The only thing stopping us is us.

 

[danovice]

This does go both ways....

How could moving to Germany be wrong?
a. He's got an eye on his global profile for his post-football career (been on US talk shows, expressed an interest in NFL, etc...) the Bundesliga doesn't have the same profile / following that the premier league has, will he drift off peoples radar?
b. There's no guarantee that he'll be the success everybody expects. Just look at Manes move to Bayern... Does he want to take that risk
c. He's so close to breaking what many believed was an unbreakable record as top prem goal scorer. People don't talk about Shearer as premier league winner with Blackburn they know him as the all time highest scorer.
d. Children are starting school and his wife is pregnant with another. We know he's a family man and wouldn't want to relocate his family to a foreign country just as they're about to start school where they don't know the language? Would he equally be happy living in a different country and missing out on his newborn growing up?

I think you have to weigh the pros against the cons and if it's equal on both sides it's better the devil you know

Won't disagree with any of that. My only point was that Kane going to Germany is not non-sensical (excuse the double negative) if you are willing to try and prove yourself wrong. Fact is, only Kane can weigh the pros vs. cons and only his weighting of the pros and cons matter. The easy conclusion is to insert our own weighting of the various pros and cons.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Stop repeating this fallacy. We don’t need to sell Kane to spend £80m on anyone. The only thing stopping us is us.

You've made a jump too far.

If we sell Kane for £80m - we would have an additional £80m to spend. That is a fact. nobody said we can only spend £80m if we sell Kane.

Now, if he goes on a free next summer, we won't have that money, we will still need to replace him, and we will still need to do whatever business we need to do in addition to that.

Off the top of my head - Son will be 32 next summer - we would be looking to replace him or at least the player with the potential to replace him. So a top striker and a top winger/wide player. We probably will need to sort out LB next summer. We may also be in the market for another CB depending on what we do this summer. Maybe a CM depending on how things play out this season.

When you have owners who are not going to dig into their own pockets, we need to fund transfers via profits and player sales. Profits will be down with no European football.

 

[Albertbarich]

I'm sure many will totally dismiss this but for what it's worth both Lee McQueen and Adam osper on the last LWOS said that they know he wants to go to Bayern and they know it for a fact.

My personal opinion is he probably does but I also think Bayern are naive to think he will massively push for it with only a year left. He holds all the cards, he doesn't need the hassle.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

I'm sure many will totally dismiss this but for what it's worth both Lee McQueen and Adam osper on the last LWOS said that they know he wants to go to Bayern and they know it for a fact.

My personal opinion is he probably does but I also think Bayern are naive to think he will massively push for it with only a year left. He holds all the cards, he doesn't need the hassle.

I think its easy to forget that Kane does take some risk by running out his contract.

An injury similar to 2019, or worse, could scupper many teams plans to sign Kane on a big contract next summer.

There is value in having a 3-4 year contract now, rather than waiting until next year.

 

[Albertbarich]

I think its easy to forget that Kane does take some risk by running out his contract.

An injury similar to 2019, or worse, could scupper many teams plans to sign Kane on a big contract next summer.

There is value in having a 3-4 year contract now, rather than waiting until next year.

There is some value to it certainly but there is also value in waiting and getting to go wherever you want for untold riches.

 

[danovice]

Surely a or b are most likely given we'd probably offer him more than Bayern?

Probably. One guess in trying to understand Kane's psyche/perspective is that the disillusionment in Spurs mgmt has forced him to look elsewhere. The justifiable arrogance of a professional footballer of Kane's stature would have him believe that he is the missing piece to Bayern and winning the UCL is more than possible. If he wins the UCL with Bayern next year (vs. not playing UCL next year) then he would unquestionably cement his status in world football. Again, if you were Kane why wouldn't you want a shot at that. To Dare is To Do. Staying in the EPL to break the record would protect his future legacy, but is certainly a safer, less ambitious route when considering competitive arrogance.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

There is some value to it certainly but there is also value in waiting and getting to go wherever you want for untold riches.

Sure - its about risk management.

Given Kan'e wealth, I would guess he would err on the side of lower risk - i.e. take a good deal now, rather than wait for a great deal later.

First, the money difference will not be life changing - he is uber rich in either scenario. Second, he gets another year playing in CL and competing for big trophies by moving now instead of waiting.

I honestly don't think money is a motivating factor for Kane here. I think he wants to win, and he wants to compete at the highest level for however long his career lasts.

 

[Albertbarich]

Sure - its about risk management.

Given Kan'e wealth, I would guess he would err on the side of lower risk - i.e. take a good deal now, rather than wait for a great deal later.

First, the money difference will not be life changing - he is uber rich in either scenario. Second, he gets another year playing in CL and competing for big trophies by moving now instead of waiting.

I honestly don't think money is a motivating factor for Kane here. I think he wants to win, and he wants to compete at the highest level for however long his career lasts.

No I don't think it's about money either but to make Levy accept the price I'd imagine Bayern will pay Kane would have to burn bridges and kick up a fuss . He didnt do It to force a move to City so why would he do It now? (I know he was late back to training but really he did nothing and was back to normal within a couple of weeks.)

The money is worth mentioning as part of the bigger picture in that he holds all the cards and has the upper hand over the whole thing. He has waited probably 3 years for this move so I doubt one more of which at the end he will get to choose wherever he goes is going to force him to do what's needed to piss Levy off enough to get his own way.