- Jan 18, 2005
- 7,179
- 19,701
I think we should sell Kane.
Assumptions:
Scenarios:
- If he doesn't renew this window, he will leave on a free
- If we sell him, we sell him to a non-Prem club
View attachment 128574
The top left scenario is basically the ideal IMO: we sell Harry, but the rebuild goes well, and we qualify for Champs Lge. Financially (and also mentally) we're in a great place to consolidate and continue the project. The bottom right scenario is worst-case: we kept Kane to give us a a better shot at top 4, but we fell short and now we have neither. Financial and mental problems threaten the project. Of the remaining scenarios, the best outcome if we keep Kane (the 2nd column) isn't much better than the worst case if we sell Kane (the 1st column) - 6 of one, half-dozen of the other.
So, in terms of risk/reward - selling Kane seems to make more sense than keeping him.
Tell me why I'm wrong.
What about the mystery box?
The outcome where we keep him this summer, win the FA cup, finish top 4 and he signs a new contract?