The Daily ITK Discussion Thread - 6th January 2015

[DaSpurs]

Lower Prem teams will pay similar wages. Obviously they cant sign top players but someone of Naughton's calibre wouldn't be a problem. In fact they would probably have to offer him more than what he's currently earning to persuade him to leave Spurs and London. I know for a fact Livermore got a pay rise to join Hull.

Interesting to know, but had we ever handed Livermore a first squad contract? If not, it wouldn't have been easy for Hull to beat whatever we were paying him. So while it's a good point and I think you're probably right that they'd likely have to beat out Spurs for him to be convinced to leave, I'm not sure it'd be quite as easy.

 

[Studsy23]

I realise it's not directly related to Spurs but if the £25m plus transfer of Bony to Man City goes through then the chances of Swansea stepping up their interest in the likes of Naughton must increase. Could be the catalyst ....

 

[yido_number1]

I thought players purchase price was discounted over the term of the contract so whilst Naughton may be in the books now for zero Capoue will not be.

They may think that in the accounting department but in the Levy Department he still see's an asset as an asset. The fact we have no net spend in the last 4 or so years is testament to it.

Really depends on the opportunity cost imo. What are we giving up, by trying to make a bigger profit on sales (i.e. who could we bring in, if we were willing to move a player or two at a loss)?

I don't know the answer to that - but the question is far more complex than simply making a "profit" on a single transaction.

I totally agree with your sentiment but surely the money we are making on transfers is generally being reinvested back into players. So if we sold Naughton for 3 or 4 million what are we going to buy with that? If we constantly sell for less we are going to end up with a squad assembled for less.

I really don't see much happening in the window, maybe in the summer there will be a lot more going on. If we could sell Kaboul I could see Moreno coming in. The players that are going to make an improvement on Capoue, Soldado and Ade aren't going to be cheap so selling players for knock down prices isn't going to help.

 

[steve]

But breezer, levy hasn't learnt that over the last 20 odd transfer windows. It's not going to change I'm afraid. Sure I can understand getting a good deal but getting the best deal isn't always the one that saves the most money. He loves player trading though so we are just lumbered with this approach I'm afraid.

I don't think Levy loves player trading, I'm sure he'd be quite happy if sales and especially incomings were kept to a minimum, I would too because it'd mean a settled happy squad hopefully.

We're demanding and often unreasonable as fans - on the one hand we want Levy to take a loss on transfer fees in order to get players out of the club but then we want him to go the extra mile and pay whatever it takes to secure our shiny new striker. Then in 18 months we want it to happen again when they ain't quite up to scratch. It's no way to run a business and will affect our potential incomings over time as the losses start to bite. I'm not accusing you of this by the way.

Speculation is a risky business and there's no guarantee that new signings will secure anything especially in January. We're paying for last summers transfer window to some extent but let's be honest most of us were creaming in our pants when it happened. It should be a lesson in more ways than one.

 

[Mr Pink]

I realise it's not directly related to Spurs but if the £25m plus transfer of Bony to Man City goes through then the chances of Swansea stepping up their interest in the likes of Naughton must increase. Could be the catalyst ....

Good point. It could be what kicks it all off.

 

[LexingtonSpurs]

I totally agree with your sentiment but surely the money we are making on transfers is generally being reinvested back into players. So if we sold Naughton for 3 or 4 million what are we going to buy with that? If we constantly sell for less we are going to end up with a squad assembled for less.

I really don't see much happening in the window, maybe in the summer there will be a lot more going on. If we could sell Kaboul I could see Moreno coming in. The players that are going to make an improvement on Capoue, Soldado and Ade aren't going to be cheap so selling players for knock down prices isn't going to help.

Yes, if we sold everyone for a loss, that would be bad. But in reality, we have, and will continue to, sell many players for a profit.

In this case however, its not profit/loss that is dictating these decisions (on who to buy) - we simply have a full squad, and cannot buy unless we create room. Almost every ITK has said we have money to spend - but no place to put any new signings. So, in this case, the opportunity cost of not moving deadwood out - may be costing us key players.

Players who are hard to sell now, won't be any easier to sell in the summer. I am not sure I see the benefit in waiting.

 

[TEESSIDE1]

both ali and jj had jibes at the press. But I think we are reading way to much into it to even discuss. They are basically stating the same things we would state. We can't forget that they are fans too and capable of the same love/hate relationship we all have with the press.

One thing of note is that both the press and the itk seem to agree that we are looking to shift first. Seems to be the one thing to trust. Any target by us or from us is only going to be correct if the right person was the source at the right time for the right club. Shouldn't stop anybody from enjoying this madness though. Just a cautionary note from somebody who has lost his shit over previous transfer windows and looked a fool for it.

I would take ignoring the press as dismissing the p*ss poor rumours such as the Sun saying we're looking to offload Lloris for £25m.

 

[yido_number1]

Yes, if we sold everyone for a loss, that would be bad. But in reality, we have, and will continue to, sell many players for a profit.

In this case however, its not profit/loss that is dictating these decisions (on who to buy) - we simply have a full squad, and cannot buy unless we create room. Almost every ITK has said we have money to spend - but no place to put any new signings. So, in this case, the opportunity cost of not moving deadwood out - may be costing us key players.

Players who are hard to sell now, won't be any easier to sell in the summer. I am not sure I see the benefit in waiting.

I haven't seen anyone say we have money, I've seen them say we need squad places. Our transfer history over the last 8 or so windows says we won't spend above what we have brought in and I'd be inclined to think this will be the case until the stadium is built and then some. We have Yedlin coming in so I would expect Naughton to go, other than that I can't see much happening.

 

[225]

@225 please read the rules. We don't have Twitter in here.

Apologies, noob error

 

[CowInAComa]

I dont think anyone is advocating a firesale or massively udnervalueing our squad, its a matter of accepting a realistic market value for these players. And routinely Levy has over valued dead wood to a degree to which they become detrimental to our ability to buy in new players and progress. Again I refer to the whole Gomes saga.

I think realistically we are going to have to take a loss on some of these guys in the short term if we want to start acting on our long term plans. Not all our investments are going to pay out.

 

[LexingtonSpurs]

I haven't seen anyone say we have money, I've seen them say we need squad places. Our transfer history over the last 8 or so windows says we won't spend above what we have brought in and I'd be inclined to think this will be the case until the stadium is built and then some. We have Yedlin coming in so I would expect Naughton to go, other than that I can't see much happening.

from @TrickyVilla

It is not a case of transfer fee's holding us back, it's the wage bill. There is some money available to spend and has been for ages, but the squad is far to bloated and wages are at the maximum. Shift a few on and we can bring some in simple as that. The fact we have to move players on though, will probably end up showing very little in terms of Net spend . We will only get 2-3 in but would like 5-6 moved on in January alone.

JJ has also said our transfers in are dependent on reducing a bloated squad.

We have money to spend on reasonable transfers - but no place to put them in the squad. We also are sitting on surplus from this summer, so we could have a net spend in January, and still be even for the year.

 

[Geyzer Soze]

Lol @ the solitary WTF on the OP. First Transfer Window in this madhouse, @w0lfee?

 

[TheChosenOne]

Before Benny gets thrown under the bus .. Surely if he is crocked then an insurance payout could be an avenue and lose the wage outlet ?

 

[mill]

from @TrickyVilla


JJ has also said our transfers in are dependent on reducing a bloated squad.

We have money to spend on reasonable transfers - but no place to put them in the squad. We also are sitting on surplus from this summer, so we could have a net spend in January, and still be even for the year.

I think it's more wage bill than squad place that's the problem, even though we do have too big a squad

 

[mill]

Lol @ the solitary WTF on the OP. First Transfer Window in this madhouse, @w0lfee?

Maybe an accident, d'oh, wtf and spam are all on the right hand side where most people scroll when on a phone.

Maybe the mods could move all the positive reps to the right hand side then any accidental ones would just be positive and everyone's happy

 

[DaSpurs]

I think it's more wage bill than squad place that's the problem, even though we do have too big a squad

It's absolutely more so the wages, as we don't even have a full 25 man senior squad. We're also unfortunately too unbalanced, as we have too many in some areas (CM) but too few in others (AM). Really hoping we see some movement out this window to help alleviate some of these restraints, so we can better balance the squad and further tailor it to Poch's system.

 

[Snarfalicious]

I know it's not the "flashy" transfer window some might have hoped for, but I'm encouraged that it sounds like our hands are tied in regards to having to truly sell before we buy. It's been coming for what feels like 2-3 seasons now; Levy's inability to take slightly less to move a player (and in turn we end up eating wages for a season or more) and as a result we've got big earners just rotting away on the bench or even further from the matchday squad.

It's a situation that probably was avoidable if somewhere along the lines someone swallowed their pride just a tad (not just Levy, I'm sure some players had a role in this, too) in order to get the moves to happen.

Now we're at the crossroads of looking like a team that could really propel forward and flourish but in order to get there the side still needs some investment/talent but our wage bill is likely bursting at the seams. It'll be interesting to see just how desperate Levy is to move on the players we deem as surplus and if he can really accept less (not saying half-price deals, etc. but minor reductions in value) in order to put money back into the squad. It's also worth noting that I'm sure other clubs realize we need to sell before we buy and as a result Levy could look at a situation where he's not truly in the best position for hard negotiating.

 

[dondo]

I realise it's not directly related to Spurs but if the £25m plus transfer of Bony to Man City goes through then the chances of Swansea stepping up their interest in the likes of Naughton must increase. Could be the catalyst ....

Feel sorry for Swansea fans if naughton is their replacement for bony

 

[RuskyM]

Surely Naughton going would put us in a bit of trouble homegrown players wise? I thought we were at the barebones already.

Half a dozen players I'd rather see out before him anyway.

 

[davidmatzdorf]

It's not discounte per se. What tends to occur is that coming up to the end of a contract, clubs will lower their asking price in order to preserve capital and/or revenue stream.

So for a player with a five year contract, they can ask as much as they want. And that is fairly true in years four and three, unless the player makes a move to get out of the contract. So that's what obviously happened with us in concerns to Modric and Bale (but both still had time on their contract that allowed us to be resolute in price).

Now once you get down to two years, the price has the ability to drop as the selling club tend to realize that the player isn't going to re-up and they better sale while they can still get value. Here's where a player that was 24 million, might be available for 19m, depending on the selling club.

In that last year, the selling club must decide to take a full hit but get the year of service or sell at whatever price they can to help in their next transfer dealing. And this is usually a big discount because buyers know that they have leverage in such negotiations. That same guy that was 24m, could go at a price that is crazy due to desperation by the sellers. Most English clubs will typically sell to get anything they can; whereas, most German clubs will take the year of service (but they tend to spend significantly less on recruiting).

So there is a discount factor but it's really reliant on the selling club.

So I hope that helps. Hell, I hope I was answering the right question

I think you've misunderstood his point about 'discounting'. It wasn't about reducing sale prices for players on the way out. It referred to the way transfer fees for players brought in are written off over the course of their contracts.

A player like Naughton (who was the smaller 'half' of the £8m transfer fee along with Walker) has long since had the book value of his transfer written off, as he has been at Tottenham for many years. Any fee we can get from him will represent a write-back for the current year's accounts, because his cost was all accounted for in earlier years

The players brought in during Summer 2013, by contrast, were signed on 3-4-5 year contracts, so their transfer fees are still being written off at 33%, 25% or 20% per year, over the length of their contracts. So if we were to sell (say) Capoue, there would be a write-back for the fee received, but it would be offset by a write-off of his original transfer fee, less one year already written off.