- Jul 27, 2006
- 749
- 2,933
So, here’s what Pochettino said a few weeks ago:
“Daniel is the first person who is creating a massive club for us and the fans because he is thinking, in the next few years, to take the club to the final level. With our signings and our work, we are creating a team that can, when we get the new stadium, be one of the best teams in the world.”
Either our manager has been smoking some good stuff or the 'media narrative' is wrong. The widespread assumption is that we’ll be just like Arsenal were after their stadium was built, and our chairman is just a penny pincher anyway, so we’re doomed to lose all our best players.
Which is it?
Who would you bet on? Levy and Poch in the blue corner, or social media and pundits in the red? Who has the better track record?
My analysis suggests that Spurs will earn £400 million of income in 2019 (compared with £210m in 2016). That’s made up of £100m of Match Day income at the new stadium (v. £41m at WHL), £100m of Commercial income (v. £59m in 2016) and £200m of TV & Prize Money (split PL £150m, UEFA £50m).
In 2016 (and 2015) Spurs spent £100 million paying staff, giving us a ‘Staff Percentage Ratio’ of 48% (ie. total staff costs of £100m as a percentage of £210m total income). The Club has long operated on the basis of a 45-55% range. Put simply, for every £1 we earn, we budget to spend 50p on salaries.
Spurs employed around 900 people in 2016. About 500 temporary match day workers and 400 staff (coaches, physios, admin and commercial, store and warehouse guys, young players etc.). My estimate is that they all shared £37 million of our £100 million Staff Budget.
The balance of around £63 million was paid to our First Team Squad. That’s an average of about £2 ½ million p.a. per player, or £45k per week (+ Nat Insurance tax). So, we've guys at £100k+ and others at £20k per week.
The crucial point is that if our income doubles – as it will, easily – our First Team Squad budget can double too. £100k players can become £200k players, if Levy and Poch want. So it becomes a cultural question (about player wages, and the type of player) NO LONGER a question of affordability.
£400 million of income would put us in the same ballpark as Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal, still behind City and United. I think we’ll even catch those two by 2023 but that discussion’s for another day.
The stadium cost is not exactly a red herring, but I’d call it an orange one. Spurs are borrowing £400 million at say 3% interest. That’s £12 million per annum, or £230k per week. Call that one Rooney or Sanchez. I’d rather have a top player than pay the cash to a bank, but it’s hardly an amount that leaves Spurs skint.
My income projections ignore anything for Stadium Naming Rights. It’s entirely possible that Naming Rights and property profits / income (apartments, hotel, etc.) will pay off the debt within a few years. Although a Naming Rights contract would most likely be for £x per year spread over 15-20 years, Levy could take the legal contract to a bank and receive a lump sum for it (less interest) with which to pay off the £400m debt. I’m not saying that’s what he’ll do. I’m only saying it’s not the issue the ‘Spurs can’t compete' narrative depends on.
All of the workings I’ve summarised here are on my Blog. But you don’t need to read or understand them to reach this conclusion. It’s been a long and winding road, clawing our way back from the financial darkness of the Scholar debacle and the bitter Sugar years. It hasn’t even always been plain sailing since the ENIC takeover. However, the journey’s nearly over. Success is never guaranteed on the pitch. But, financially, we’re odds on.
“Daniel is the first person who is creating a massive club for us and the fans because he is thinking, in the next few years, to take the club to the final level. With our signings and our work, we are creating a team that can, when we get the new stadium, be one of the best teams in the world.”
Either our manager has been smoking some good stuff or the 'media narrative' is wrong. The widespread assumption is that we’ll be just like Arsenal were after their stadium was built, and our chairman is just a penny pincher anyway, so we’re doomed to lose all our best players.
Which is it?
Who would you bet on? Levy and Poch in the blue corner, or social media and pundits in the red? Who has the better track record?
My analysis suggests that Spurs will earn £400 million of income in 2019 (compared with £210m in 2016). That’s made up of £100m of Match Day income at the new stadium (v. £41m at WHL), £100m of Commercial income (v. £59m in 2016) and £200m of TV & Prize Money (split PL £150m, UEFA £50m).
In 2016 (and 2015) Spurs spent £100 million paying staff, giving us a ‘Staff Percentage Ratio’ of 48% (ie. total staff costs of £100m as a percentage of £210m total income). The Club has long operated on the basis of a 45-55% range. Put simply, for every £1 we earn, we budget to spend 50p on salaries.
Spurs employed around 900 people in 2016. About 500 temporary match day workers and 400 staff (coaches, physios, admin and commercial, store and warehouse guys, young players etc.). My estimate is that they all shared £37 million of our £100 million Staff Budget.
The balance of around £63 million was paid to our First Team Squad. That’s an average of about £2 ½ million p.a. per player, or £45k per week (+ Nat Insurance tax). So, we've guys at £100k+ and others at £20k per week.
The crucial point is that if our income doubles – as it will, easily – our First Team Squad budget can double too. £100k players can become £200k players, if Levy and Poch want. So it becomes a cultural question (about player wages, and the type of player) NO LONGER a question of affordability.
£400 million of income would put us in the same ballpark as Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal, still behind City and United. I think we’ll even catch those two by 2023 but that discussion’s for another day.
The stadium cost is not exactly a red herring, but I’d call it an orange one. Spurs are borrowing £400 million at say 3% interest. That’s £12 million per annum, or £230k per week. Call that one Rooney or Sanchez. I’d rather have a top player than pay the cash to a bank, but it’s hardly an amount that leaves Spurs skint.
My income projections ignore anything for Stadium Naming Rights. It’s entirely possible that Naming Rights and property profits / income (apartments, hotel, etc.) will pay off the debt within a few years. Although a Naming Rights contract would most likely be for £x per year spread over 15-20 years, Levy could take the legal contract to a bank and receive a lump sum for it (less interest) with which to pay off the £400m debt. I’m not saying that’s what he’ll do. I’m only saying it’s not the issue the ‘Spurs can’t compete' narrative depends on.
All of the workings I’ve summarised here are on my Blog. But you don’t need to read or understand them to reach this conclusion. It’s been a long and winding road, clawing our way back from the financial darkness of the Scholar debacle and the bitter Sugar years. It hasn’t even always been plain sailing since the ENIC takeover. However, the journey’s nearly over. Success is never guaranteed on the pitch. But, financially, we’re odds on.
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