I disagree with you about Liverpool.The problem is/was - that last year was an anomaly. All the usual big teams had a bad season due to transition and alike. Normal service will be restored this season with the added fact that teams like Liverpool and Chelsea will fair much better now that they have settled managers who have already proven they are worth their salt.
It doesn't matter how you slice and dice it and how you look at or use statistics and figures, but the facts remain that both Liverpool and Chelsea will be up there at the end of the season, on top of that City will be there too and Arse there or thereabouts. That's not even adding Utd in the mix who I also believe will come good after the new year. So realistically, we can only expect 6th-7th this season based on how we have been playing so far. And so far mean a slow steady downward trajectory, not an upwards one. So unless players like Eriksen, Dele, Son, Kane and Lamela start scoring goals regularly and consistently we aren't going to break the top 4. That prediction is based purely on the fact that we need to at least equal or better our goal scoring exploits of last season and so far we aren't on course to do that.
Despite not having any European games to disrupt their preparations and injure their players, they are lucky to be 4 points ahead of us.
Their defence will be their downfall. If they do try and tighten up it'll effect their attacking play and if they don't they'll continue to draw and lose games they should have won. We'll finish above them.
Also think we've got an excellent chance of finishing above Man Utd. They are not a great team, just have a couple of excellent attackers.