Arsenal

[Spurslove]

Think of it as cumulative chance quality for that match, i.e. how many goals you ought to have scored with those chances.

Thanks (I think). So when you get an xG rating for an upcoming match, that rating is from the previous match...?

So the xG rating is for the goals which should have been scored, but for whatever reason, were not...?

I'm trying to get my head around it but I have a feeling I might just drop it pretty soon.

 

[Delboy75]

Conte doing well would put huge pressure on Arteta after 2 years. The obvious question will be why are we ( they) sticking with a project when an elite manager up the road is above us after a few weeks/months.

 

[EighteenEightyTwo]

Thanks (I think). So when you get an xG rating for an upcoming match, that rating is from the previous match...?

So the xG rating is for the goals which should have been scored, but for whatever reason, were not...?

I'm trying to get my head around it but I have a feeling I might just drop it pretty soon.

You wouldn't get an xG for an upcoming match, only one that's happened. I agree the word 'expected' is a bit misleading when talking about past events.

So, you would get an xG for each shot in a game, and the figure you see at the end is all of those added up. If your xG is lower than the goals you scored in the game, you were clinical and scored more than you were expected to have scored with those chances.

 

[chaching]

Thanks (I think). So when you get an xG rating for an upcoming match, that rating is from the previous match...?

So the xG rating is for the goals which should have been scored, but for whatever reason, were not...?

I'm trying to get my head around it but I have a feeling I might just drop it pretty soon.

some statisticians have basically said if you have a chance on goal in a certain part of the pitch you would be expected to score a certain percentage of the time. So if you have the ball directly in front of goal ahead of the penalty spot you are more likely to score (for example 50% probability) than if you are at an angle (say 25% probability) or far outside the penalty area (Say 10% probability). (there are other variables that impact the percentage as position such as whether it is one on one, how the ball gets to the person, what body part is used to hit the ball, etc.) They then look at the chances you had and multiply each one by the percentages allocated to that chance. So if you had the three chances from what I have stated above your XG would be 0.85. If they didn't score from any of those chances they have in essence under performed based on expected goals. If they scored one or more then they have over performed based on the expected goals.

It doesn't look at future matches it is always looking at previous / current matches based on what has happened.

Hopefully that makes sense.

 

[Spurslove]

some statisticians have basically said if you have a chance on goal in a certain part of the pitch you would be expected to score a certain percentage of the time. So if you have the ball directly in front of goal ahead of the penalty spot you are more likely to score (for example 50% probability) than if you are at an angle (say 25% probability) or far outside the penalty area (Say 10% probability). (there are other variables that impact the percentage as position such as whether it is one on one, how the ball gets to the person, what body part is used to hit the ball, etc.) They then look at the chances you had and multiply each one by the percentages allocated to that chance. So if you had the three chances from what I have stated above your XG would be 0.85. If they didn't score from any of those chances they have in essence under performed based on expected goals. If they scored one or more then they have over performed based on the expected goals.

It doesn't look at future matches it is always looking at previous / current matches based on what has happened.

Hopefully that makes sense.

Many thanks for that (and to 'Eighteen Eighty Two') and yes it does sort of make sense although I don't really see any intrinsic value in it. I mean, one mans idea of a good chance might not be anothers.

Again, many thanks for your efforts one and all. ?‍

 

[CanadaSpurs]

Everton 0-1 to 2-1 in about 20 minutes has been pretty nice to watch.

 

[CanadaSpurs]

Aubemeyang pulling it wide to end the game just the cherry on top.

 

[ReadieSpur]

Amazing! I switched over for the last 15 mins. Glad I did ?

 

[TheTanguy]

Lost 3 of the last 4 league matches

 

[soflapaul]

Back to AFTV I go… ?

is this correct? everyone time we go on AFTV they get more views. the more views of their ads they get, the more money they get. the more money they get, the bigger their fame and the more they undermine the team when they played poorly. does anyone have any access to some internet bots?

 

[DJS]

As I thought Arteta put Xhaka straight back in.

No idea why he keeps playing him as I thought he was meant to be crap?

Weird choices managers make…

 

[popstar7]

Amazing! I switched over for the last 15 mins. Glad I did ?

Same here. Wonderful stuff! Auba's effort at the end the cherry on the cake.

 

[soflapaul]

Which stage is acceptance?

 

[soflapaul]

and at the 91:15 on minute the reactions are priceless

 

[mmmdoughnuts]

As I thought Arteta put Xhaka straight back in.

No idea why he keeps playing him as I thought he was meant to be crap?

Weird choices managers make…

He could have stopped the break away in the centre circle by taking the player out. Did he pull out because he was already on a yellow?

 

[PCozzie]

is this correct? everyone time we go on AFTV they get more views. the more views of their ads they get, the more money they get. the more money they get, the bigger their fame and the more they undermine the team when they played poorly. does anyone have any access to some internet bots?

Well it's worth a try though, right?

 

[VancouverSpur]

and at the 91:15 on minute the reactions are priceless

Todays episode bought to you by anger management.com

 

[E17yid]

LETS FUCKING GO MERSEYSIDE IS BLUE BITCHES.

 

[spursfan77]

I'm not so sure they are on as big a upward trend as people are saying.

They've put some good results together and they do seem more settled.

However, they are actually very low on all attacking stats.

This image was taken from after the Liverpool defeat and shows that they aren't really creating many chances or quality chances and are actually in the bortom half for a lot of it.

View attachment 101017

This actually matches up with how Arteta had been performing prior to this season. Last season Arsenal were accused of being very blunt in attack and lacking creativity, heavily relying on crosses.

They still are.

This is after spending 150m.

I do think Gabriel and White is a decent defence, if not spectacular. Whilst Tomiyasu is looking decent. I just don't think outside of Smith Rowe and Saka they have a lot of quality to really push on enough. Not too mention Arteta persisting with this style that is heavily reliant on crosses.

We were lower than them for these metrics but I imagine we are much higher than that now thanks to the last 3 games.

I wonder what our stats are now compared to how bad they were under Nuno. Would be good to know.

 

[rossdapep]

Just remembered that Amazon are filming all this behind the scenes.