Reasons to be Confident: The Stats Tell a Different Story

[Chimbo!]

There has been an overwhelming storm of negativity in the last 24 hours on this website. This has of course been brought about by a run of 3 straight defeats. However, despite Tottenham's 10 point lead evaporating in double-quick time there is much to be proud of. Moreover, there are even more reasons to believe that this season will still deliver the success it promised as little as 2 weeks ago.

What's Changed?

Result: Tottenham Hotspur 5-0 Newcastle United
Possession: Tottenham Hotspur 63% Newcastle United 37%
Shots: Tottenham 18 Newcastle United 7

Result: Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Manchester United
Possession: Tottenham Hotspur 57% Manchester United 43%
Shots: Tottenham Hotspur 18 Manchester United 6

Result: Everton 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
Possession: Everton 39% Tottenham Hotspur 61%
Shots: Everton 9 Tottenham Hotspur 22


It is easy to forget that less than a month ago Spurs savaged a high-flying Newcastle 5-0 amidst a media frenzy declaring Tottenham were ready for a title bid. Perspectives have changed since then but the team has not.

Out of the 3 defeats only one was warranted. The performance against Arsenal was abject but such disappointments are inevitable over a 38-game season. The squad picked itself up and produced a domineering display against the ever consistent Manchester United. One could be critical and argue that Spurs failed to equal United's clinical touch in front of goal. However, Tottenham's fortunes were the reverse against the likes of Fulham. The point being that during a single game luck will have a large influence over proceedings. That luck (or lack of) has continued into the away game against Everton.

It is easy to be down after a third straight defeat and it does increase the pressure on to the next match. However, against Everton the side produced a confident display where for much of the 2nd half the action was encamped in Everton's final third. In both the United and Everton matches the side received knock-backs in an ever escalating run of bad form, however, there were no signs of wavering effort or belief.

The fact that they lost 1-0 does not show the full picture. Tottenham had 61% possession, 22 shots and all the corners. During the United match the statistics were similar with 57% possession and 18 shots. Over a season that will produce more wins then it will dropped points. That is why Tottenham are 3rd after a run of bad form. Not much has changed between the run of wins and the run of defeats (Spurs had 63% and 18 shots in he Newcastle drubbing). Therefore, we should be confident that the run of wins will return.

Fortune has not favoured us recently. But if we continue to have more possession and attempts on goal then our opponents, as we have done all season, then luck will fall our way again and this wretched run will be long forgotten.

 

[ethanedwards]

There has been an overwhelming storm of negativity in the last 24 hours on this website. This has of course been brought about by a run of 3 straight defeats. However, despite Tottenham's 10 point lead evaporating in double-quick time there is much to be proud of. Moreover, there are even more reasons to believe that this season will still deliver the success it promised as little as 2 weeks ago.

What's Changed?

Result: Tottenham Hotspur 5-0 Newcastle United
Possession: Tottenham Hotspur 63% Newcastle United 37%
Shots: Tottenham 18 Newcastle United 7

Result: Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Manchester United
Possession: Tottenham Hotspur 57% Manchester United 43%
Shots: Tottenham Hotspur 18 Manchester United 6

Result: Everton 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
Possession: Everton 39% Tottenham Hotspur 61%
Shots: Everton 9 Tottenham Hotspur 22


It is easy to forget that less than a month ago Spurs savaged a high-flying Newcastle 5-0 amidst a media frenzy declaring Tottenham were ready for a title bid. Perspectives have changed since then but the team has not.

Out of the 3 defeats only one was warranted. The performance against Arsenal was abject but such disappointments are inevitable over a 38-game season. The squad picked itself up and produced a domineering display against the ever consistent Manchester United. One could be critical and argue that Spurs failed to equal United's clinical touch in front of goal. However, Tottenham's fortunes were the reverse against the likes of Fulham. The point being that during a single game luck will have a large influence over proceedings. That luck (or lack of) has continued into the away game against Everton.

It is easy to be down after a third straight defeat and it does increase the pressure on to the next match. However, against Everton the side produced a confident display where for much of the 2nd half the action was encamped in Everton's final third. In both the United and Everton matches the side received knock-backs in an ever escalating run of bad form, however, there were no signs of wavering effort or belief.

The fact that they lost 1-0 does not show the full picture. Tottenham had 61% possession, 22 shots and all the corners. During the United match the statistics were similar with 57% possession and 18 shots. Over a season that will produce more wins then it will dropped points. That is why Tottenham are 3rd after a run of bad form. Not much has changed between the run of wins and the run of defeats (Spurs had 63% and 18 shots in he Newcastle drubbing). Therefore, we should be confident that the run of wins will return.

Fortune has not favoured us recently. But if we continue to have more possession and attempts on goal then our opponents, as we have done all season, then luck will fall our way again and this wretched run will be long forgotten.

The stat we should be concerned about is the 9 goals conceded.
We lack discipline when we lose possesssion, we need VDV playing in the hole everytime, fitness permitting.

 

[shelfmonkey]

For - 58 shots 6 goals scored

Against - 22 shots 9 goals scored

Not good. We score 1 in 10 and concede 1 in 2 and a bit.

No reason to be confident

 

[Kingellesar]

The trouble is, we just don't look like scoring at all, how many of those shots were Defoe just smashing it? Or Adebayor attempting to place it and missing by miles. Or pathetic free kicks, Ekotto should be the only one taking them, Kaboul and Bale both have to stop, they are terrible. Love how Scotty P tried taking a quick one yesterday cos he knew we were rubbish at them.

 

[nidge]

Stats don't and never have told the entire story.

Yesterdays game is a good example of the 22 shots we had I and only remember 1 genuine clear cut chance and that was Saha hitting the post from 6 yards out when it was probably easier to score. The United game was exactly the same of the 18 shots how many clear cut chances did we create where we were left thinking we should have scored? For me it's 0. A shot is counted and anything from a shot that goes 7 or 8 yards wide to a shot that dribbles through to the keeper for an easy save. What I would really like to know is how many times have we truly made a keeper make a great save? In the last 3 games I would say it's been very few.

Possesion stats is the most worthless stat of them all if you do fuck all in an attacking sense when you have the ball.

Once again people are attributing a result based on luck. In the literal sense luck doesn't exist it's probability taken personally. To blame luck is poor reasoning and wishful thinking in the belief that there was nothing the team could have done to influence the result. That belief immediately removes any blame from the players or management team and it's the reason why both players and managers own the years have blamed results on bad luck.

 

[Chimbo!]

Stats don't and never have told the entire story.

Yesterdays game is a good example of the 22 shots we had I and only remember 1 genuine clear cut chance and that was Saha hitting the post from 6 yards out when it was probably easier to score. The United game was exactly the same of the 18 shots how many clear cut chances did we create where we were left thinking we should have scored? For me it's 0. A shot is counted and anything from a shot that goes 7 or 8 yards wide to a shot that dribbles through to the keeper for an easy save. What I would really like to know is how many times have we truly made a keeper make a great save? In the last 3 games I would say it's been very few.

Possesion stats is the most worthless stat of them all if you do fuck all in an attacking sense when you have the ball.

Once again people are attributing a result based on luck. In the literal sense luck doesn't exist it's probability taken personally. To blame luck is poor reasoning and wishful thinking in the belief that there was nothing the team could have done to influence the result. That belief immediately removes any blame from the players or management team and it's the reason why both players and managers own the years have blamed results on bad luck.

I was not blaming luck. I think the point of the post as so far been missed. There has been a lot of doom and gloom in recent weeks after months of euphoria despite not a lot changing in our play.

We have kept up our effort and performances. We should be concerned if we were being well beaten but we have not. Those results on another day could have easily gone the other way. Since there will be other days we know that we will return to winning ways.

And in the United and Everton games we created chances. Against Everton we created better chances even than the one was scored by them (it was a great finish). We had a goal disallowed in both games so we have been opening up the opposition. Yes we have not scored enough but we are only looking at 2 matches (excluding Arsenal) and everyone believes our season is about to fold!

 

[kitchen]

Out of the 3 defeats only one was warranted. The performance against Arsenal was abject but such disappointments are inevitable over a 38-game season. The squad picked itself up and produced a domineering display against the ever consistent Manchester United. One could be critical and argue that Spurs failed to equal United's clinical touch in front of goal. However, Tottenham's fortunes were the reverse against the likes of Fulham. The point being that during a single game luck will have a large influence over proceedings. That luck (or lack of) has continued into the away game against Everton.

It is easy to be down after a third straight defeat and it does increase the pressure on to the next match. However, against Everton the side produced a confident display where for much of the 2nd half the action was encamped in Everton's final third. In both the United and Everton matches the side received knock-backs in an ever escalating run of bad form, however, there were no signs of wavering effort or belief.

The fact that they lost 1-0 does not show the full picture. Tottenham had 61% possession, 22 shots and all the corners. During the United match the statistics were similar with 57% possession and 18 shots. Over a season that will produce more wins then it will dropped points. That is why Tottenham are 3rd after a run of bad form. Not much has changed between the run of wins and the run of defeats (Spurs had 63% and 18 shots in he Newcastle drubbing). Therefore, we should be confident that the run of wins will return.

Fortune has not favoured us recently. But if we continue to have more possession and attempts on goal then our opponents, as we have done all season, then luck will fall our way again and this wretched run will be long forgotten.

I agree with a lot of this, we're still playing great football, we look dangerous and have been unlucky, particularly in front of goal. What concerns me is the bit in bold, which I know is highlighted in another thread but I think teams now know that they can foul us outside the box, or give away a corner when the chances of us capitalising are slim to none. Utd were happy to concede free kicks and corners all game, as were Everton. They can actually go out there an have a game-plan based on this.

The defence also needs looking at. Mistakes are costing us, and it doesn't look organised enough. Ledley was nowhere near Jelavic for the goal yesterday, and Kaboul let Osman get past him too easily. There should have a been a covering player when that happened as well...I won't talk about the shambolic defensive display against Arsenal and Utd, we all saw the match.

Our defensive misgivings went unnoticed by many when we were scoring more than the opposition, but now the goals are drying up it's clear that there's something amiss. Letting in 9 goals in 3 games is not the sign of a winning team.

Defenses win titles, and the coaches need to sort ours out asap. We can still get 3rd, but we're a long way off the title. Hence the 11 point gap that has now appeared between us and the top 2...

 

[AngerManagement]

I said in another thread that things are not as bad as they seem

The Arsenal game was a shock, but we were more unlucky than poor against MAn U and Everton.

Also we just so happened to have hit a bad run at the same time as Arsenal have hit an excellent one and it has amplified the negativity.

A win against Bolton in the cup and Stoke (both home games we should win) could restore some much needed confidence soon

 

[dav3j]

For - 58 shots 6 goals scored

Against - 22 shots 9 goals scored

Not good. We score 1 in 10 and concede 1 in 2 and a bit.

No reason to be confident

Exactly this. Possession is a pointless stat if you don't convert that possession into clear cut chances.

 

[spursfan77]

The one problem we now have is that we will be playing quite physical teams who are great at set pieces. Whilst we are rubbish at them.

Plus our midfield goals have dried up, they saved us when Adebayor was missing 3 or 4 chances a game but arent now

 

[Azazello]

For - 58 shots 6 goals scored

Against - 22 shots 9 goals scored

Not good. We score 1 in 10 and concede 1 in 2 and a bit.

No reason to be confident

This is it.

We've been conceding and not scoring (for the last few games).

Points make prizes, not possession stats.

 

[Mr Pink]

Who's the RB for Stoke...need to keep Bale left so he can run at him.

Is it that kid Shotton?

 

[dav3j]

Who's the RB for Stoke...need to keep Bale left so he can run at him.

Is it that kid Shotton?

He's just the towel boy who happens to run around just behind Pennant.

 

[Azazello]

Exactly this. Possession is a pointless stat if you don't convert that possession into goals.

fyp

 

[mpickard2087]

Not that worried about us going forwards, Its when we havent got the ball which should be cause for concern.

 

[Dare!]

I am confident. This place is an embarrassment with all the doom and gloom and overly pessimist fucks.

 

[Kingstheman]

I am confident. This place is an embarrassment with all the doom and gloom and overly pessimist fucks.

I'm with you.:clap:

 

[SNAFU_Clarke]

an interesting piece in the indie today about the amount of clear cut chances each team in the premier league creates, and the amount of those that get put away. it was in relation to the merseyside derby tonight if i recall and basically saying both of those team were awful. we fared little better. we were lower mid-table. wolves were top i think, but that was a reflection of how few chances they create. the likes of united, city and the goons were all in and around the top 6.

 

[BillyWhizz]

We are still playing ok which should be enough to beat most of the teams in our run in at home but the tempo and fluidity of our play isn't the same at the moment. Someone mentioned on here yesterday that we are really missing VDV, he makes us tick as much if not more than Modric does.

 

[yido_number1]

I'm with you.:clap:

:clap: Think someone needs to start pumping out some positivity threads... 3 bad games yet we are still just above Arsenal... Gonna be tough but we are still in the running to finish above them!