- Jan 15, 2017
- 1,740
- 8,651
Sorry for the clickbait title. But I thought I'd actually do some analysis into this, as I'm trying to find reasons to get excited about this promising new Tottenham Hotspur side, and quite frankly, I am struggling.
Whenever we've had poor seasons before that we have been able to recover from and re-build the team after (examples listed here - https://www.spurscommunity.co.uk/index.php?threads/is-there-a-way-back-this-time.142365/) - I have always been able to take comfort in the fact that we have a young side and a few potentially top class players coming through that could improve and take us to the next level. Looking at our current squad, which dismally failed in its objectives last season, most of the players are either at or very close to their prime age wise, have declined past it, or are most likely never going to be good enough.
This isn't a universal rule, but young players tend to be hungrier, fitter, faster, more able to deal with the demands of the intensity of Premier League football. They also, clearly, have more long term value to a side as they offer more years of potential high quality football if they stay or sell-on value if they don't. ENIC have rarely gone for big name big money signings in their time here but generally speaking they have always made sure to invest in high quality young prospects to keep the machine ticking over. However, that appears to have stopped, and on current analysis I think the situation is now starting to look bleak with our current squad.
Using the data from https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/tottenham-hotspur/leistungsdaten/verein/148 - I looked into the average ages of squads based around the top 20 players ranked by minutes played in all competitions last season. All well and good talking about some great prospect in the U18s but if they're not actually ready for first team football any time soon then they're not really relevant - I want examples of players currently in and around the first team squad. Likewise if you have a 40 year old 3rd choice keeper, that's also not really relevant. What I've found is that our squad generally speaking is older than many of our rivals - meaning that whilst they may well get better next season, unless we act quickly, we may well get worse.
We then find ourselves talking about the likes of Alli, Sanchez and Winks as young players as they are still "only" 24, even though they've been around for ages. They could still improve, but it feels like none of them are going to reach the potential we thought they had in 2017. I'd hope Lo Celso and Ndombele (if he ever gets picked) would improve in their second seasons in England. But beyond that our situation looks bleak to be honest. If the likes of Kane, Son and Lucas start to decline now that they've hit that mystical 27/28 age bracket, just like Vertonghen, Dembele, Rose, Alderweireld and Eriksen did, then who is going to step up to the mantle and take their place? Where are the young Ledley Kings, Aaron Lennons, Michael Dawsons, Tom Huddlestones, Gareth Bales, Danny Roses, Kyle Walkers, Harry Kanes and Dele Allis that you can see coming through the ranks to become future superstars that we can build our team around for the next few years? Are we planning on signing any potentially world class youngsters like Eriksen, Modric or Son, or are we only looking at experienced players that can "do a job" like Hojbjerg, or come in as no more than backup like Hart or Wilson?
We once went over two years between Adebayor and Llorente without fielding a single outfield player over the age of 30. But gone are the days where I think of Spurs as an upcoming young side - now it feels we're past our prime, and even at their peak then players like Sissoko, Davies, Aurier and Lamela were never exactly world class. Our squad looks light on numbers with an excess number of games coming up likely to take a battering on their ageing bodies, and quite frankly, things do not look good. Does anyone have a counterpoint to this, and a reason to feel optimistic about the future?
Whenever we've had poor seasons before that we have been able to recover from and re-build the team after (examples listed here - https://www.spurscommunity.co.uk/index.php?threads/is-there-a-way-back-this-time.142365/) - I have always been able to take comfort in the fact that we have a young side and a few potentially top class players coming through that could improve and take us to the next level. Looking at our current squad, which dismally failed in its objectives last season, most of the players are either at or very close to their prime age wise, have declined past it, or are most likely never going to be good enough.
This isn't a universal rule, but young players tend to be hungrier, fitter, faster, more able to deal with the demands of the intensity of Premier League football. They also, clearly, have more long term value to a side as they offer more years of potential high quality football if they stay or sell-on value if they don't. ENIC have rarely gone for big name big money signings in their time here but generally speaking they have always made sure to invest in high quality young prospects to keep the machine ticking over. However, that appears to have stopped, and on current analysis I think the situation is now starting to look bleak with our current squad.
Using the data from https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/tottenham-hotspur/leistungsdaten/verein/148 - I looked into the average ages of squads based around the top 20 players ranked by minutes played in all competitions last season. All well and good talking about some great prospect in the U18s but if they're not actually ready for first team football any time soon then they're not really relevant - I want examples of players currently in and around the first team squad. Likewise if you have a 40 year old 3rd choice keeper, that's also not really relevant. What I've found is that our squad generally speaking is older than many of our rivals - meaning that whilst they may well get better next season, unless we act quickly, we may well get worse.
- Arsenal - Average 25.75, Median 26
- Chelsea - Average 25.9, Median 26
- Man Utd - Average 25.95, Median 25.5
- Leicester - Average 26.7, Median 25
- Tottenham - Average 27.25, Median 27.5
- Liverpool - Average 27.5, Median 28
- Man City - Average 27.95, Median 26.5
- Liverpool - Average 24.75, Median 25
- Man City - Average 25.85, Median 26
- 2005-06 - Average 24.4, Median 24
- 2009-10 - Average 24.55, Median 24
- 2015-16 - Average 23.8, Median 23.5
We then find ourselves talking about the likes of Alli, Sanchez and Winks as young players as they are still "only" 24, even though they've been around for ages. They could still improve, but it feels like none of them are going to reach the potential we thought they had in 2017. I'd hope Lo Celso and Ndombele (if he ever gets picked) would improve in their second seasons in England. But beyond that our situation looks bleak to be honest. If the likes of Kane, Son and Lucas start to decline now that they've hit that mystical 27/28 age bracket, just like Vertonghen, Dembele, Rose, Alderweireld and Eriksen did, then who is going to step up to the mantle and take their place? Where are the young Ledley Kings, Aaron Lennons, Michael Dawsons, Tom Huddlestones, Gareth Bales, Danny Roses, Kyle Walkers, Harry Kanes and Dele Allis that you can see coming through the ranks to become future superstars that we can build our team around for the next few years? Are we planning on signing any potentially world class youngsters like Eriksen, Modric or Son, or are we only looking at experienced players that can "do a job" like Hojbjerg, or come in as no more than backup like Hart or Wilson?
We once went over two years between Adebayor and Llorente without fielding a single outfield player over the age of 30. But gone are the days where I think of Spurs as an upcoming young side - now it feels we're past our prime, and even at their peak then players like Sissoko, Davies, Aurier and Lamela were never exactly world class. Our squad looks light on numbers with an excess number of games coming up likely to take a battering on their ageing bodies, and quite frankly, things do not look good. Does anyone have a counterpoint to this, and a reason to feel optimistic about the future?