2024 onwards Champions League Wildcard qualifying

[Delboy75]

So realistically we'd only need to finish around 14th or 15th place on that table, to qualify as the first 14 or 15 teams will more than likely qualify through the league.

So that's 10pts, or thereabouts, to make up.

Pretty much. And of course importantly unless you drop out of Europe all together it’s very doable to maintain your position like Arsenal have done till this season. So we’d have this possibility every season.

 

[Saoirse]

Pretty much. And of course importantly unless you drop out of Europe all together it’s very doable to maintain your position like Arsenal have done till this season. So we’d have this possibility every season.

It'll create some mad situations too. If this had been in place already, Bale's late winner at Leicester would have seen us go from not having Europe at all to being in the Champions League.

 

[SpursTillIDie1882]

It seems odd that they didn’t give higher weighting to CL wins vs Europa or conf. Good for us though!
However was looking forward to semi youth teams in Europe this year but I’m guessing we will take it quite seriously with this in mind

Really don think we focus on at all on the shitty conference Europa bo-lacks at all this season and quite rightly so.... wild card is for 2024 in 3 years time , this year we will focus on league and domestic cups not this 3rd rate conference and rightly so

 

[cockerel downunder]

Really don think we focus on at all on the shitty conference Europa bo-lacks at all this season and quite rightly so.... wild card is for 2024 in 3 years time , this year we will focus on league and domestic cups not this 3rd rate conference and rightly so

Yeah but this years results will count in 2024!

 

[SandroClegane]

Really don think we focus on at all on the shitty conference Europa bo-lacks at all this season and quite rightly so.... wild card is for 2024 in 3 years time , this year we will focus on league and domestic cups not this 3rd rate conference and rightly so

So someone writes an extremely informative post that explains why the Europa Conference League needs to be taken seriously by us this year and this is your response?

EDIT: Gotta love the D'oh rating rather than a thought out response. But that would require reading comprehension, wouldn't it?

 

[Col_M]

I think it’s actually called the Th€ Wi£dcard

 

[Saoirse]

Champions League Third Qualifying Round First Leg:

Malmo 2-1 Rangers
Genk 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk

No points awarded in the qualifying rounds, but of course reaching the Group Stage is worth 4 points and, perhaps more importantly, lots of money to strengthen the team with.

 

[Saoirse]

Spartak Moscow 0-2 Benfica

 

[npearl4spurs]

Thought I'd start tracking how Wildcard qualifying looks for the Champions League, with the new format starting in 2024.

The two teams with the best coefficient score over the last 5 years, who haven't qualified for the UCL group stage but have qualified for Europe, will be upgraded to a UCL place. The coefficient is calculated by giving each team 2 points per win in Europe, and 1 point per draw (excluding qualifying rounds, and from this season onwards the First Knockout Round of the Europa League and Conference League, since sides winning their group will skip this). Games decided on penalties are counted as draws.

There are also bonus points. In the Champions League, you get 4 points for playing in the Group Stage, 5 points for reaching the Last 16, and 1 point for reaching each of the QF, SF and Final. In the Europa, you get no bonus but a minimum of 3 points for the Group Stage (i.e. if you lose all 6 games you still get 3 points, but if you get some wins you don't get an additional bonus), a 4-point bonus for winning the group, a 2-point bonus for finishing 2nd, and a 1-point bonus for reaching each of the L16, QF, SF and Final. And in the Conference League, you get no bonus but a minimum of 2.5 points in the Group Stage, a bonus of 2 points for winning the group, a bonus of 1 point for coming 2nd, and a bonus of 1 point for reaching each of the SF and the Final. Teams going out of the Conference League before the Group Stage get 1 point for going out in the First Qualifying Round, 1.5 for the Second, 2 for the Third, and 2.5 for the Playoff.

The table so far is:

View attachment 93044

Gold = Top 2, so guaranteed a wildcard spot in the unlikely event a team this good needs it.
Green = A position good enough to have secured a wildcard spot every time so far, had this format been in place since 2017 (harder to calculate before then as the coefficient system changed a lot).
Yellow = A position which would have been good enough in some years since 2017, but not others.
Red = A position in the Top 25, but not good enough in any of those years
Grey = Teams outside the Top 25 which may still have a chance (they a) have enough points to potentially make the ground to Yellow up, b) are from a major league, and c) are in Europe this season).

Therefore, performing well in Europe over the next three years is important, even if we don't win trophies. In order to reach Yellow, we'd need approximately 20 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 4 wins and 2 draws, getting through both the R16 and the QF with a win and a draw over the two legs, and then going out in the SF with a draw and a loss.

In order to reach Green, we'd need approximately 25 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 5 wins and 1 draw, winning both legs in the R16 and the QF, and then winning the Semi Finals on aggregate after a win and a loss.

The first matches relevant to this contest are taking place this week. The main one is Genk vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round. We want Shakhtar to go out to aid in our pursuit of them. In the same round, there's also Malmö vs Rangers and Spartak Moscow vs Benfica, but Rangers and Benfica are both a fair amount behind us at present.

So just to clarify, if we indeed make it to the group stage of the Europe Conference League, we get 2 points per win, 1 point per draw, 2 bonus points for winning our group/1 for coming in second, then the win/draw points for each subsequent round with bonus points coming for reaching the SF and the Final??

 

[Bobbins]

Very informative piece and i'm sure the club are well aware of conference even if large swathes of both fanbase and press arent.

Now you have the job of keeping it up to date ?

Honestly this feels like one of those things the club would actually completely overlook and come to regret in later years.

 

[Saoirse]

So just to clarify, if we indeed make it to the group stage of the Europe Conference League, we get 2 points per win, 1 point per draw, 2 bonus points for winning our group/1 for coming in second, then the win/draw points for each subsequent round with bonus points coming for reaching the SF and the Final??

Spot on

 

[spursfan77]

I'm in favour of this one, to be honest. It isn't the "super" clubs which benefit; they're qualifying anyway. It's second-tier teams which qualify and take Europe seriously every year. I think that's fair enough, and it's also a very clever way of making every match matter for those sides, rather than seeing them mess around throughout the Europa or Conference League Group Stages and get through easily anyway.

If it'd been in place for the last four years, the beneficiaries would have been Arsenal*3, Tottenham*2, Sevilla*2, and Roma.

Thanks for starting this topic. 2024 is is definitely something I have been thinking about in recent days since the Conference League draw on Monday. It is actually a really important competition to win and we should be going all out to do it because of this wildcard spot and also it is obviously a trophy. We scoffed at it at the end of the season but winning it also gets the club in the Europa League. None of us know how the season will go, especially at the moment, so having another gateway into that, however disappointing it will be not to be in the champions league it is a good avenue to have.

I also just really hope we are the first team to take advantage of the rule. Imagine the amount of piss it will boil in the media and with other teams' fans.

 

[Saoirse]

Champions League Third Qualifying Round Second Leg:

Rangers 1-2 Malmo, 2-4 on aggregate
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Genk, 4-2 on aggregate
Benfica 2-0 Spartak Moscow, 4-0 on aggregate

Again no points changes, but given Shakhtar are one of the main teams we're trying to catch, it'd probably be helpful if they didn't get a dose of CL money. They'll face a stern test against Monaco in the Playoff round. Meanwhile, Benfica go on to face PSV, and Rangers will go against Kairat or Alashkert for a place in the Europa League. Roma also start their European campaign, with a Conference League playoff against Molde or Trabzonspor, as well as obviously ourselves against Pacos de Ferreira (barring Larne coming back from 4-0 down!)

 

[Hotspur1978]

These wildcard plans based on historical merit might be scrapped.

Final decision due next month.

 

[cwy21]

This is awesome. I love seeing people do the mathematics on this. I have a program that tracks the FIFA rankings after every international match. I know it makes me a nerd but it's something I like doing.

Seeing the tweet above that they're thinking about changing this due to the ESL breakaway makes me think there is no doubt that it will manage to screw Spurs out of the champions League somehow in the future.

 

[Westmorlandspur]

Champions League Third Qualifying Round Second Leg:

Rangers 1-2 Malmo, 2-4 on aggregate
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Genk, 4-2 on aggregate
Benfica 2-0 Spartak Moscow, 4-0 on aggregate

Again no points changes, but given Shakhtar are one of the main teams we're trying to catch, it'd probably be helpful if they didn't get a dose of CL money. They'll face a stern test against Monaco in the Playoff round. Meanwhile, Benfica go on to face PSV, and Rangers will go against Kairat or Alashkert for a place in the Europa League. Roma also start their European campaign, with a Conference League playoff against Molde or Trabzonspor, as well as obviously ourselves against Pacos de Ferreira (barring Larne coming back from 4-0 down!)

Do these qualifiers count for points. Thought it was just group games and beyond

 

[Saoirse]

Do these qualifiers count for points. Thought it was just group games and beyond

Correct - but this obviously determines who gets to what group stages to earn points, and also of course reaching the Champions League means $$$ and the chance for these clubs to improve.

These wildcard plans based on historical merit might be scrapped.

Final decision due next month.

Indeed - I'll keep updating until UEFA make a decision.

In terms of results this week (again, no points awarded in qualifying):

Champions League:
Benfica 2-1 PSV
Monaco 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Europa League:
Rangers 1-0 Alashkert

Europa Conference League:
Paços de Ferreira 1-0 Tottenham
Trabzonspor 1-2 Roma

Return legs next week. Benfica and Shakthar can both reach the UCL group stage which would mean they'd score 4 bonus points, rather than the 3 minimum you get in the Europa. And Rangers can secure the 3 minimum from the Europa rather than the 2.5 minimum if they fall into the Conference League. Obviously beyond crucial that we turn our own tie around.

 

[Saoirse]

Stopped doing this since it appeared as though UEFA were likely to scrap it - but now it's back on the table albeit with an extra complication in a "no leapfrogging" rule. Teams will not be able to qualify by coefficient unless every team above them has also qualified. So if e.g. Bayern Munich finished 5th in the Bundesliga, they would qualify by coefficient. But if they finished 6th, they would not be able to qualify since the team in 5th is not a CL side, so it would go to the next best coffecient team - unless that 5th placed side also qualified by coefficient or by winning the Europa or Champions League.

 

[Saoirse]

The other thing that remains unclear to me is whether it uses the coefficient at the end of the most recent season, or with a one-year delay (similar to how e.g. the places for the 22-23 competitions are allocated based on league rankings from 20-21). If it's the most recent season, it creates even more uncertainty because teams could be competing for a place based on their performances in the latter stages of the European competitions as well as the league.

For instance this season, there's a tranch of 3 teams - Juventus, Man Utd and Atletico Madrid - who could all be eligible by this route but are wiithin 3 coeficient points of each other, with Atletico behing the other two but still in Europe!

Right now it'd look like this, with chances taken from FiveThirtyEight:

Juventus: 21% chance to come 5th in Serie A, 100% chance to get a UCL place if they do Overall odds: 21%

Atletico Madrid: 11% chance to come 5th in La Liga, 100% chance to get a UCL place if they do and also at least draw one leg against Man City in the Champions League quarter final, otherwise 95% likely relying on Juventus and Man Utd not both coming 5th. Overall odds: 11%.

Man United: 25% chance to come 5th in Premier League, 100% chance to get a UCL place if they do and Man City beat Atletico in both legs, otherwise 98%. HOWEVER, also a 40% chance to come 6th with Tottenham or Arsenal in 5th, which would see them 70% likely to qualify (relying on Atletico and Juventus both not finishing 5th). Overall odds: 52.5%.

Tottenham Hotspur: 46% chance to come 5th in Premier League. Would then rely on United not coming 4th, Atletico not coming 5th, and Juventus not coming 5th for a 65% chance of getting a CL spot. Additionally, they could come 6th with United in 5th (5.5% chance), which would see them 70% likely to qualify (relying on Atletico and Juventus both not finishing 5th). Finally, they could come 6th with Arsenal in 5th, but this is only a 2% chance and still needs Atletico and Juve not to come 5th. Overall odds: 35%.

After those four, it just gets too complicated to reasonably calculate. Arsenal are next in line on coefficients, but have so many permutations involved - whether they finish 5th, whether they finish 6th behind United or Spurs, where Juve and Atletico come, and whether they're overtaken by Leipzig, Villarreal and/or Lyon.

All-in-all, it's the kind of system I actually like from a nerd point of view - gives a lot of meaning to a lot of games and rewards performances in different competitions. Overall this season, by far the most likely outcome would be all three of United, Tottenham and Arsenal qualifying, unless Juve/Atletico need the spot, or unless one of them gets beaten to 6th by West Ham, in which case Atalanta (25th on coefficient but a good chance of 5th in Serie A) may well be the next beneficiary. You could even quite easily get the edge case of it being Basel (28th), who'd then be upgraded from qualifying to a Group Stage spot, leaving a hole to fill there - but are they allowed to "leapfrog" Zurich who'd also have to play qualifying despite winning the league?! It's certainly one of the most complex mechanisms I've seen and could see it causing a lot of annoyance!

tl;dr This is a potentially interesting, but also completely over-complicated system where you can end up relying on everything from "dead-rubber" second leg Conference League ties to the Swiss Super League's national coefficient ranking to determine qualification. But the upshot is that it's likely to be very, very good for Tottenham - if it passes, finishing 5th in the Premier League will most of the time be enough for us to get Champions League football, and 6th would give us a decent shot too. Coefficient points will be even more important than under the original plan, since the spots could go much lower down with the 'no leapfrogging' clause.

 

[Nick-TopSpursMan]

From what I read yesterday it sounded like you can only get in via the coefficient route if you finish 5th in your league?