Race for the Top 4 - 2018/19

[Lilbaz]

Who knows how things will pan out this season - but what a start it has been.

The likelihood is that Man City and Liverpool will show their squad strength once the CL is back up and running and the FA Cup is in full swing and press on. How we cope in comparison will determine our finish. 4th wouldn't be a bad finish given our transfer spending and stadium fiasco.

But what is really awesome is that we are actually talking about competing with Liverpool and Man City for the title, not about securing 4th spot. This mentality shift is brilliant. Love it. And I'm looking forward to the second half of the season and hopefully entering the new stadium.

Hopefully our injuries come back and give us a boost and maybe buy a player.

 

[smallsnc]

This goes to emphasise my previous post beautifully. We had full preseasons and he players had longer holidays those year. Honestly, that needs to be factored in. I don’t want to put a downer on things but just to temper expectations because we’ve also had a lot of injuries too.

The thing in our favor is that we spread the minutes for our attackers over a larger group than Liverpool. I keep hearing that they have a bigger squad, but Klopp has played his attacking big 3 a lot more minutes than anyone other than Kane has played for us. I really think we will see them, as in past years, start to lose their legs coming the final 10 matches. The question for us is can we take advantage if they do start to run out of gas.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

The thing in our favor is that we spread the minutes for our attackers over a larger group than Liverpool. I keep hearing that they have a bigger squad, but Klopp has played his attacking big 3 a lot more minutes than anyone other than Kane has played for us. I really think we will see them, as in past years, start to lose their legs coming the final 10 matches. The question for us is can we take advantage if they do start to run out of gas.

That's true, but not only for the attackers. He is almost entirely depending on only 9 players. It's a freaking gamble and he knows it. It may work out, or they may crumble.

 

[Johnny J]

That's true, but not only for the attackers. He is almost entirely depending on only 9 players. It's a freaking gamble and he knows it. It may work out, or they may crumble.

I'm would never wish a player to get injured, but I seriously doubt Liverpool would be where they are if they'd had our injury record this year.

The media go on about us not having strength in depth, but I think Liverpool - aside possibly from central midfield, due to our injuries - have less depth than us.

 

[Timberwolf]

I'm would never wish a player to get injured, but I seriously doubt Liverpool would be where they are if they'd had our injury record this year.

The media go on about us not having strength in depth, but I think Liverpool - aside possibly from central midfield, due to our injuries - have less depth than us.

The press and pundits are being lazy when they say we don't have strength in depth. It was true a couple of years ago but it isn't anymore, yet they keep rolling out the same lines as if nothing has changed. Now we have Lucas and a fit Lamela I'd say we have the best attacking depth in the entire league. Plus with Toby playing again, Sanchez and Rose fit, with Foyth and KWP coming through, we also have the best depth in defence.

Not having a replacement for Kane is also exaggerated since Son can play there and Llorente is about the highest quality we can realistically keep happy on the bench given how few minutes he gets.

The only position where we really lack depth in central midfield and even then, if Dembele and Wanyama weren't crocked we'd look alright there too. We do definitely need to strengthen there though.

 

[npearl4spurs]

The midfield and Son's upcoming absence are still lingering concerns for me over the next few PL matches, FA Cup, and League Cup.

One of those matter much more than the other two, but I want to win everything.

 

[Lo Amo Speroni]

No predictions from me. I want to enjoy the ride. Besides Poch told me to have more faith so I intend to.

 

[davidmatzdorf]

Of course it doesn’t. It also doesn’t factor in improvements teams make from
Season to season. What it does do, is show a trend, and trends are a thing in sport.

You only have to look at how well we do over Xmas every season under Poch. That’s a trend.

Another trend is Liverpool seem to have poorer second half of the seasons than the first half.

Chelsea and City had much bigger leads than 6 points at this stage the previous two seasons. People are acting like Liverpool are miles in front. 6 points is hardly anything at this stage of the season.

What that shows is that there is a trend that we out perform all teams around us in the second half of the season under Poch. If that trend continues, we very well could win the league.

That's an excellent post as far as it goes, in terms of how trends work. But if you drill down a bit further, the footballing analysis will show that Liverpool have dropped more points in the second half of each season because they have depended heavily on their ruthless attacking game and their fierce pressing, because their defence has been weak. Whenever they stopped pressing heavily from the front, their defenders would be exposed and they would concede goals and drop points. And that had an eventual effect on the attackers, because they became progressively more knackered as the season wore on.

This season, having greatly strengthened their defence, they don't reliably concede goals when they take a breather and are less reliant on their attacking force pressing high up the pitch and chasing everything down for 90 minutes.

Injuries could derail this plan, but Klopp knows what he is about: their defensive improvement is also benefiting their attack. If his key players stay fit, they should hold their form better this time.

Wtf? No we haven’t. Otherwise we’d have won the title every season.

If you average out the points totals of the past several years, we have the most per season - we've been the most consistent club in the league, staying in the top 4 every season, whereas Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal have all had seasons finishing 5th-8th, which have reduced their average points per season.

 

[LexingtonSpurs]

The midfield and Son's upcoming absence are still lingering concerns for me over the next few PL matches, FA Cup, and League Cup.

One of those matter much more than the other two, but I want to win everything.

Son will be here for the first leg against Chelsea, and through the Man United match in the league.

I think we are going to have to rely on a heavily rotated squad in the early FA Cup matches anyway - I expect Skipp, Foyth/Sanchez, KWP to all play at a minimum. N'Koudou might also play the first FA Cup match, same with Llorente. Maybe Wanyama is healthy, and it might be Dier's first match back.

 

[Lilbaz]

Son will be here for the first leg against Chelsea, and through the Man United match in the league.

I think we are going to have to rely on a heavily rotated squad in the early FA Cup matches anyway - I expect Skipp, Foyth/Sanchez, KWP to all play at a minimum. N'Koudou might also play the first FA Cup match, same with Llorente. Maybe Wanyama is healthy, and it might be Dier's first match back.

Not sure we'll see them all play at the same time. We don't really need to, they have been part of the squad and rotating for a while now so it's not like the player they will be giving a rest has been playing non stop (apart from toby). We will rest players but i'd prefer not to go with a second string team, we are not unbeatable and the last thing we need is a replay.

 

[jurgen]

While it's great that we have a very good back end to the season, its an indication of something to work on as for the past three seasons, and this one so far, another team has got amazing momentum going before we have reached beast mode. We're chasing again and reliant on that momentum disappearing which, unfortunately for us, hasn't happened (enough) in the three previous seasons..

That said, if we can keep up our usual quality of finish with the quality of start we've had, we will be well up there whatever happens. And the Scousers have form for shitting the bed of course...

 

[smallsnc]

While it's great that we have a very good back end to the season, its an indication of something to work on as for the past three seasons, and this one so far, another team has got amazing momentum going before we have reached beast mode. We're chasing again and reliant on that momentum disappearing which, unfortunately for us, hasn't happened (enough) in the three previous seasons..

That said, if we can keep up our usual quality of finish with the quality of start we've had, we will be well up there whatever happens. And the Scousers have form for shitting the bed of course...

For what it's worth, we have had a great 1st half of the season with 45 points. Let's keep it up and see if the others can maintain their pace.

 

[yankspurs]

Last year at this time, City were at 55. They dropped 10 points on pace. United dropped 3. Chelsea dropped 8. We gained 9 points on pace while Liverpool gained 5. Chelsea dropped out of top 4 at the end missing out by 5 points.

If we can repeat that 9 point pickup, we’ll win the league. Even picking up 6 from pace, I think we’ll win the league. But we’re already on pace for 90. Even maintaining that pace is an absolutely massive ask, let alone picking it up by 6.

 

[JCRD]

No predictions from me. I want to enjoy the ride. Besides Poch told me to have more faith so I intend to.

If only you were female

 

[tommo84]

I’ve seen a few posters remark about us dropping too many points in the first half of seasons/allowing other teams to build momentum before we hit our stride. There’s really not been much wrong with our first 19 games - to have 45 pts at this stage is nuts and ordinarily would have us top. Give the Scousers credit - their consistency to this point has been remarkable and they were much much the better team when they faced us in September.

It’s true that we were dreadful at Watford, and that’s the sort of performance that I’m yet to see from Liverpool in the league this season (but they had in Belgrade so they’re not invincible).

 

[walworthyid]

This is interesting from Redcafe.

Everyone is talking about Liverpool and City and dismissing Spurs challenge even though they are 2nd. This year could be their year based on their 2nd half performance for last 3 seasons

2nd half (last 19 PL games) points tally for last 3 seasons.
15/16-16/17-17/18-(Average)
Arsenal:29-35-32-(32)
Chelsea:30-44-31-(35)
Liverpool:30-33-40-(34)
City:30-39-45 -(38)
United:36-33-39-(36)
Spurs:35-47-43-(42)

So if we add average points from last 3 seasons to current points tally, the final table would something like this

1. Spurs:45+42=87
2. Liverpool:51+34=85
3. City:44+38=82
4. Chelsea:40+35=75
5. Arsenal:38+32=70
6. United:32+36=68

So dismiss spurs at your own peril, they are very much in Title hunt. I am sure United fans will be happy to see this happen

Interestingly our season follow a similar pattern every year. Bit shaky to start. Slowly coming into form in november/December. Almost unstoppable from Christmas until the end. This year though we have managed to grind out the wins despite the injuries, fatigue and relatively poor performances.

 

[JCRD]

It is ironic that when everyone talks about Man Shitty and Liverscum they dont directly refer to them as one man teams but the way they talk about them, they may as well. Man Shitty, lost Fernandinho - cannot win. Liverscum without VVD will face trouble.

Yet they always talk about us without Kane

****s

 

[arunspurs]

IMO, Next 2 rounds probably decides or turns this title race.
If Liverpool win over Arsenal & City, then they are firmly in control , will win the league in all probability - especially win over City will be a 6 pointer. If City win over Liverpool, then its a big confidence booster for them.

As for as us, we got to keep winning & hope both falter. For us crucial period will be in Jan when we will miss Sonny and also when cup games starts interfering with PL

 

[ohtottenham!]

Interestingly our season follow a similar pattern every year. Bit shaky to start. Slowly coming into form in november/December. Almost unstoppable from Christmas until the end. This year though we have managed to grind out the wins despite the injuries, fatigue and relatively poor performances.

I think our resilience is worrying our rivals in many ways. We seem to plough on despite injuries across our line up from defence through attack. We seem to grind out results despite some iffy performances home and away. We have Poch getting comfortable with rotations, blooding youngsters and using our squad resources more effectively.

Sonny's upcoming absence will be a blow, but I think we'll deal with it. We're in the Carathingy semis, CL next round...2nd in the Prem. Best thing for me is, we're showing we can deal with adversity and challenges, and Poch and his coaching team have done wonders in keeping our fitness and motivation levels at a peak.

 

[hellava_tough]

Can you imagine the uproar if a City player put in a season ender on Salah or VVD?

City could afford to have a player banned for the rest of the season as well, because their squad is rammed full of talent

Anyway, that's old-school football; something that would happen in the mid-70s