- Sep 20, 2005
- 9,955
- 2,498
How It Works
Ignoring the old cliché of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams, so for Derby this season read the Watford result from last season, Birmingham is paired with Charlton and Sunderland with Sheffield United.
The Story So Far…
We came into the last batch of six games with 21 points compared to 26 from the same games last season. Bad as though our start was, by the time he was sacked Martin Jol had only secured one less point from the first ten games than he did from the equivalent fixtures last time.
Clive Allen dropped another in his one game against Blackburn, as we lost whereas last season we drew. Juande Ramos’ first 8 games brought us 14 points compared to 17 last season.
Now Read On…
We got 8 points in our last 6 games compared to 10 last season. We beat Reading at home again (and how!), but lost to Aston Villa away when we managed a draw in 2007. We matched two results when we lost away at Chelsea and beat Sunderland at home, dropped two points with the draw at Everton but picked up one by drawing with Manchester United at home.
What all this means is that we now have 29 points compared to 36 from the equivalent games last season. This means we are 7 points down on what we achieved last year on the way to our total of 60, with 13 games to play.
The Next Batch
Our next six games see us play Derby (A), Chelsea (H), Birmingham (A), West Ham (H), Manchester City (A) and Portsmouth (H). Last season we picked up a gob-smacking 16 points out of the 18 available, with a draw at Derby (Watford equivalent last season) and then winning all the other games.
It’s a mammoth task to get any where near that kind of form, but we showed a fair bit of resilience against Everton and Man U. The toughest assignments are probably Chelsea at home and Man City away. We play two of our top-half rivals in West Ham and Pompey at home, so we have to win those, even if they are densely populated by ex-Spurs players these days.
The Rolling Form Guide
The RFG graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.
We go into the away game against Derby on a run of 8 points from a possible 18 from the previous 6 games. That is made up of the wins against Reading and Sunderland and the draws with Everton and Manchester United.
We had been on a bit of a run with four wins out of five so we went into the Chelsea game with 12 points from 18. But a loss there and the last two draws has seen us fall away somewhat.
With 13 games to go we need another 31 points to equal last season’s total of 60 points, which would almost certainly guarantee a UEFA Cup spot. But that would mean averaging 2.4 points per game, even more than the staggering 2.25 points per game we averaged over the last 12 matches of last season when we started from a way back and stormed to 5th place on the last day of the season.
An easier bit of maths is to aim for 55 points, which might be good enough for a UEFA place. That’s another 26 points to win, so a still-demanding 2-per-game average over the remaining 13. Reading got 55 points last season and finished one below Bolton and just out of the UEFA Cup spots. So the short story is that if we want UEFA Cup football next season we better beat Chelsea in the Carling Cup final!
Ignoring the old cliché of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams, so for Derby this season read the Watford result from last season, Birmingham is paired with Charlton and Sunderland with Sheffield United.
The Story So Far…
We came into the last batch of six games with 21 points compared to 26 from the same games last season. Bad as though our start was, by the time he was sacked Martin Jol had only secured one less point from the first ten games than he did from the equivalent fixtures last time.
Clive Allen dropped another in his one game against Blackburn, as we lost whereas last season we drew. Juande Ramos’ first 8 games brought us 14 points compared to 17 last season.
Now Read On…
We got 8 points in our last 6 games compared to 10 last season. We beat Reading at home again (and how!), but lost to Aston Villa away when we managed a draw in 2007. We matched two results when we lost away at Chelsea and beat Sunderland at home, dropped two points with the draw at Everton but picked up one by drawing with Manchester United at home.
What all this means is that we now have 29 points compared to 36 from the equivalent games last season. This means we are 7 points down on what we achieved last year on the way to our total of 60, with 13 games to play.
The Next Batch
Our next six games see us play Derby (A), Chelsea (H), Birmingham (A), West Ham (H), Manchester City (A) and Portsmouth (H). Last season we picked up a gob-smacking 16 points out of the 18 available, with a draw at Derby (Watford equivalent last season) and then winning all the other games.
It’s a mammoth task to get any where near that kind of form, but we showed a fair bit of resilience against Everton and Man U. The toughest assignments are probably Chelsea at home and Man City away. We play two of our top-half rivals in West Ham and Pompey at home, so we have to win those, even if they are densely populated by ex-Spurs players these days.
The Rolling Form Guide
The RFG graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.
We go into the away game against Derby on a run of 8 points from a possible 18 from the previous 6 games. That is made up of the wins against Reading and Sunderland and the draws with Everton and Manchester United.
We had been on a bit of a run with four wins out of five so we went into the Chelsea game with 12 points from 18. But a loss there and the last two draws has seen us fall away somewhat.
With 13 games to go we need another 31 points to equal last season’s total of 60 points, which would almost certainly guarantee a UEFA Cup spot. But that would mean averaging 2.4 points per game, even more than the staggering 2.25 points per game we averaged over the last 12 matches of last season when we started from a way back and stormed to 5th place on the last day of the season.
An easier bit of maths is to aim for 55 points, which might be good enough for a UEFA place. That’s another 26 points to win, so a still-demanding 2-per-game average over the remaining 13. Reading got 55 points last season and finished one below Bolton and just out of the UEFA Cup spots. So the short story is that if we want UEFA Cup football next season we better beat Chelsea in the Carling Cup final!