Player Watch Player Watch: Timo Werner

[rossdapep]

I don’t think he’ll miss as many sitters as Richy. However as spurs fans, any striker that isn’t deadly like Kane seems disappointing.

May be misremembering but didn;t Keane use to flash a lot of really easy chances?

And Defoe would go through streaks where he couldn't hit a cow's arse.

Like someone already said, I think the biggest issue was the fee he came for and the amount of goals he had scored for Leipzig. As soon as he missed a couple, he kind of got labelled for it.

I remember seeing his name pop up scoring for Chelsea and thinking 'Is he as bad as they are saying?'

 

[McFlash]

Well, it's not even been a day and I'm already really rooting for this guy to step up and prove his doubters wrong.
Gotta love an underdog.

 

[arunspurs]

I don’t think he’ll miss as many sitters as Richy. However as spurs fans, any striker that isn’t deadly like Kane seems disappointing.

In a line up of Son, Richy, Johnson, Kulu, Werner....

Sonny finishing is above xG and best of all Europe...given his ability to finish well with both foot.
After him, its clearly Werner - he has ability to finish with both foot, ofcourse he needs more chances.

Richy, Kulu, Johnson - all very much one footed.

If Werner can get his confidence & game back, he can certainly increase the quality of forwards we have.

 

[McFlash]

May be misremembering but didn;t Keane use to flash a lot of really easy chances?

And Defoe would go through streaks where he couldn't hit a cow's arse.

Like someone already said, I think the biggest issue was the fee he came for and the amount of goals he had scored for Leipzig. As soon as he missed a couple, he kind of got labelled for it.

I remember seeing his name pop up scoring for Chelsea and thinking 'Is he as bad as they are saying?'

Yeah, I remember Keano being referred to as "a scorer of great goals but not a great goal scorer".
A bit harsh on the lad really but he probably didn't score as many as he should have.
(He did score some beauties though and nobody could volley a ball dropping over his shoulder like him).

 

[Mr Pink]

Number 11 shirt we think....

 

[mil1lion]

He will miss a few sitters but score the winning goal. Some fans will moan about the missed ones though.

 

[SDogg]

Number 11 shirt we think....

Not unless Bryan leaves this week

 

[$hoguN]

He will miss a few sitters but score the winning goal. Some fans will moan about the missed ones though.

Well they do that about Richy and Brennan so why not add Werner to the mix

 

[McFlash]

He will miss a few sitters but score the winning goal. Some fans will moan about the missed ones though.

I always used to think that Andy Cole needed at least 4 chances to score a goal but it didn't really do him any harm in a team that continuously provided him chances.
I might have to avoid Match Threads even more than I currently do though!

 

[Misfit]

We're just going to have to get used to not having one of the worlds generational talents playing as striker for us.

Pretty much everyone we get in will fall short of that level. The good news is that it's a team game and the whole can be greater than the sum of its parts, as we're already seeing under Ange.

 

[VancouverSpur]

I remember thinking what a signing Werner would before he signed for Chelsea. I think he could be one of those real surprising signings and if he isn’t then not too much harm done.

 

[arunspurs]

If Werner actually clicks under Ange system, we are going to be frightening to play against. If Werner even plays 50% like he did for Nagelsmann in 2019, we are going to be awesome.

At same time we need to be realistic as well. Some online are already saying we should start him against United. He may take time to get into his old self. Ange will know better. He seems to always strike the right balance on when to give someone a chance. So, I trust Ange to take the correct decision

 

[HarryKane]

Hehe the Lucas and Adama comparison made me laugh. Werner has over 150 goal contributions in the Bundesliga and Premier League. If you think he has the end product of those two you are in for a treat!

With regards to expected goals, it is true that he had a very tough finishing spell at Chelsea, especially in his first season but that is not true for his entire career.

Take Jesus at Arsenal who is on course for his 8th consecutive season with underperforming his xG. He is the inverse of Son when it comes to finishing.

Werner had one terrible finishing season at Chelsea and if you remove that season he has matched his xG exactly during his career. Scoring 102 goals from an xG of 102.05 (data taken from understat.com).

He had a few good seasons and Leipzig, after they created massive amounts of chances. His last 3 full seasons he scored 6 league goals in 2020/21, 4 in 21/22 (both chelsea), 9 in 22/23 (Leipzig) and has 2 this season. It was the same thing when he moved to chelsea - all bundesliga watchers telling you how much worse his finishing is than his actual goals scored because their system created so many, people obviously said "nuh uh he's scored a good number of goals" and then he proceeded to have terrible finishing at chelsea like the people who actually watched him said he did

Or for another comparison - he has 34 league goals in total in 6.5 seasons at Stuttgart, Chelsea and his second stint at Leipzig in 186 apps - 13/14-15/16, 2020-now, or 0.18 goals/game. Then in his first stint at Leipzig (16/17-19/20) he has 78 league goals in 127 games, or 0.61g/g, or 3x higher rate than the rest of his career stats. He scored 70% of his career league goals in those 4 years and 19% in the last 3.5 years. You're looking at a guy who had a significantly better patch in his career that's carrying his career stats and hasn't been anywhere near that effective the last few years. In fact you know what, his best season is 34 goals, 10 more than Son's best and he even averaged about 24/25 goals/season in his first Leipzig stint, his average matches Son's best season here in terms of goals. But I'm telling you right now Son is a far, far better finisher than Werner will ever be. Not even comparable, if I had to pick between them when through on goal to take a chance? Son every single day

This is like looking at Dele's stats and saying those 4 years from his last MK Dons season and first 3 Spurs seasons are representative of the player now. Would Dele score 15-20 goals/season in this team? I doubt it. Is Werner going to be a 20+ goal season player? I'd love to be wrong and have him help fire the team to a good title challenge but from what I've seen of him over the years? Incredibly unlikely, but we live in hope

 

[G Ron]

He’ll get great support from the fans in the stadium that’s for sure. We’ve actually got form for taking misfiring strikers to our hearts (despite some of the vitriol spouted about our players online). From memory Postiga, Soldado, Jansen all got the complete support (surprisingly) - there was almost an air of them being felt sorry for. Werner will hopefully feel that love to ease the pressure and thrive for us. The added bonus of rubbing it in the chavs faces if he makes a success of his time here.

I’m excited by this signing.

COYS

 

[Cochise]

We're only going to be frightening to play against if teams press on to us when we have Romero and Micky back or against sides that play a high line. Against teams that will sit back our front line won't do very much with the exception of Son who can score from anywhere within 20 yards of the goal.

We were in for Fati in the summer. Ange wanted a player of that profile then and has got one now with Werner. I think he starts up front when Son comes back and Richarlison will make way or start in games where we need a bit more of a hold up player.

 

[k1cks77]

He had a few good seasons and Leipzig, after they created massive amounts of chances. His last 3 full seasons he scored 6 league goals in 2020/21, 4 in 21/22 (both chelsea), 9 in 22/23 (Leipzig) and has 2 this season. It was the same thing when he moved to chelsea - all bundesliga watchers telling you how much worse his finishing is than his actual goals scored because their system created so many, people obviously said "nuh uh he's scored a good number of goals" and then he proceeded to have terrible finishing at chelsea like the people who actually watched him said he did

Or for another comparison - he has 34 league goals in total in 6.5 seasons at Stuttgart, Chelsea and his second stint at Leipzig in 186 apps - 13/14-15/16, 2020-now, or 0.18 goals/game. Then in his first stint at Leipzig (16/17-19/20) he has 78 league goals in 127 games, or 0.61g/g, or 3x higher rate than the rest of his career stats. He scored 70% of his career league goals in those 4 years and 19% in the last 3.5 years. You're looking at a guy who had a significantly better patch in his career that's carrying his career stats and hasn't been anywhere near that effective the last few years. In fact you know what, his best season is 34 goals, 10 more than Son's best and he even averaged about 24/25 goals/season in his first Leipzig stint, his average matches Son's best season here in terms of goals. But I'm telling you right now Son is a far, far better finisher than Werner will ever be. Not even comparable, if I had to pick between them when through on goal to take a chance? Son every single day

This is like looking at Dele's stats and saying those 4 years from his last MK Dons season and first 3 Spurs seasons are representative of the player now. Would Dele score 15-20 goals/season in this team? I doubt it. Is Werner going to be a 20+ goal season player? I'd love to be wrong and have him help fire the team to a good title challenge but from what I've seen of him over the years? Incredibly unlikely, but we live in hope

Maybe instead of looking at just goals scored per season its worth looking at mins per goal in all comps.

23/24: 102mins average for 2 goals
22/23: 176mins average for 16 goals
21/22: 197mins average for 11 goals
20/21: 318mins average for 12 goals

so he was averaging a goal every 225 minutes. Add his 27 assists, it takes his total goal or assist contribution to one every 135 minutes. Much better than all of our players bar son and maybe kulu (i haven't checked)

I don’t know why we are comparing him to son, who is one of the premier leagues greatest finishers as you said its a pointless conversation. From my point of view werner has failed the eye test to some degree these past few seasons in terms of being deemed a ‘flop’ by many. But when you look at his qualities, and you back that up with the physical metric of contributing a goal or assist every 135 minutes, i 100% understand why he is worth a free punt. Im not sure he will succeed, but if ange thinks he is willing to work with the guy then lets go for it. I know it’s such a cliche but january is a difficult window. You only have to look at last year where a big club like utd who were more desperate than we are now, signed bloody weghorst! Even title favourites arsenal signed a brighton outcast in trossard. Werner in no way crossed my mind as an option, but im not going to be fully pessimistic and neither will i be deluded into thinking ange will make him into an elite finisher like son. I do think he has the ability and stats to contribute meaningfully for us by the end of the season.

 

[Reece_Spurs]

We've been massively spoilt in the last 8 years having 2 top finishers in Kane and Son that now anyone who doesn't hit the target or whip a shot into the top corner every other shot seems shit and "Can't hit a barn door"

The only player you can replace Harry Kane with is Harry Kane, he's jut that good. Even last year half the fans on here were saying Sonny was "Done" can't run anymore etc etc. He's already scored more this year than last year.

Richarlison isn't the best finisher by all means but he brings alot to the team in terms or pressing and being a physical pain in the arse, plus his aerial ability that you don't notice until he's not in the team.

Werner will be similar, he may not be the unreal finisher in the box, but his pace, dribbling, being two footed will be invaluable with how we play, I think he'll be a great option with how we play.

Time will tell but give the guy a bloody chance first.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

A lot of this conversation around Werner v. Richarlison reminds me of when we signed Davies - and the talk then was he was coming in to replace Rose - when in reality he was coming in to compete with Rose and provide depth. (I think we actually gave Rose a new contract later that same summer)

 

[fishhhandaricecake]

I don’t think he’ll miss as many sitters as Richy. However as spurs fans, any striker that isn’t deadly like Kane seems disappointing.

I don’t think we all expect every striker to be Kane levels but to be fair over the last 25 years we’ve had:
Kane
Son
Defoe
Crouch
Keane
Pav
Berba
Sheringham
Klinsmann

IMO I’d take all of the above over Richy, so we’ve gone from truely world class in Kane and Son to a little underwhelming in Richy. I’d say most fans would be fairly happy with something more in the middle.

I’d like to think Werner could be that guy. He’s faster and more exciting than Richy and peak Werner was absolutely streets ahead of peak Richy, just depends how close to peak Werner we can get.

 

[KingsDodgyKnee]

Just had a bet with my Chelsea supporting brother-in-law that Werner will get more goal involvements in the next 6 months than Mudryk