Player Watch Player Watch: Giovani Lo Celso

[Jospur]

Slipped in betting means it’s gone out, not in.

“Slipped” from this Spurs supporter means that, according to the betting odds, our chances of bringing Lo Celso to Spurs are slipping away. And I’m getting a little anxious.

Thanks for improving my knowledge of betting terms btw.

 

[neilp]

Slipped in betting means it’s gone out, not in.

That’s correct, except 2/5 is out compared to 1/3 as it’s odds on rather than against.

 

[deanostheyido]

This really has gone quiet. Hopefully it's just being kept under wraps while they negotiate. Would be excellent if we could get him in prior to our pre-season trip. Give Poch at least a few weeks to work with him, get the lad integrated with the team, and time to get settled before the season gets under way.

Even if it is completed before we go on tour, he wont join training until the final week of July, due to his involvement for Argentina

 

[RJR1949]

That’s correct, except 2/5 is out compared to 1/3 as it’s odds on rather than against.

1/3 means a 75% chance of something (the transfer) happening.

2/5 means a 71.4% chance.

So the betting market view is that it is a little less likely that Lo Celso is going to join us but that this still very much the most likely outcome.

 

[spids]

1/3 means a 75% chance of something (the transfer) happening.

2/5 means a 71.4% chance.

So the betting market view is that it is a little less likely that Lo Celso is going to join us but that this still very much the most likely outcome.

Sorry, but the odds reflect where the money is going and the bookmaker is setting their price accordingly. If you went on put £10k on him joining us the price would shorten further. Bookies odds should be banned from these threads as they are pretty irrelevant.

 

[Samcthfc]

1/3 means a 75% chance of something (the transfer) happening.

2/5 means a 71.4% chance.

So the betting market view is that it is a little less likely that Lo Celso is going to join us but that this still very much the most likely outcome.

Sorry but this is such rubbish lol

 

[McFlash]

Sorry, but who gives a fuck about the betting market? It's no indication of anything. That's been explained over and over again on this site.

 

[Luka Van der Bale]

Sorry but this is such rubbish lol

You realise you’re not quoting the guy who originally shared the odds, right? He’s just explaining what 2/5 and 1/3 mean statistically. Whether the bookies are right / what they base those odds on is a separate matter.

 

[guiltyparty]

1/3 means a 75% chance of something (the transfer) happening.

2/5 means a 71.4% chance.

So the betting market view is that it is a little less likely that Lo Celso is going to join us but that this still very much the most likely outcome.

That’s not how odds work

 

[Samcthfc]

You realise you’re not quoting the guy who originally shared the odds, right? He’s just explaining what 2/5 and 1/3 mean statistically. Whether the bookies are right / what they base those odds on is a separate matter.

I know but what he says just simply isn’t correct, and 1/3 is more likely him joining than 2/5 so I guess the bookies think there is a gnats cock less chance he’s joining us now

 

[hughy]

This thread has turned odd.

 

[absolute bobbins]

Sorry, but who gives a fuck about the betting market? It's no indication of anything. That's been explained over and over again on this site.

I disagree, it’s a clear indication that some people have more money than sense

 

[dirtyh]

This thread has turned odd.

Every thread has tbf

 

[Mandingo]

That’s not how odds work

That’s not even how maths works ?

 

[even steven]

That’s not how odds work

It's exactly how odds work and how to determine value if the probability is greater than the odds perceive

 

[spids]

It's exactly how odds work and how to determine value if the probability is greater than the odds perceive

Bookies odds are not an accurate measure of the probability of an event. All bookies odds tell you with any precision is how much you would win if the event you back actually happens, not the chances of that event happening. So to imply that Lo Celso is more likely to come because one bookie shortened their odds is pretty stupid in my opinion.

 

[doctor stefan Freud]

This thread has turned odds

 

[Mr Pink]

Bookies odds are not an accurate measure of the probability of an event. All bookies odds tell you with any precision is how much you would win if the event you back actually happens, not the chances of that event happening. So to imply that Lo Celso is more likely to come because one bookie shortened their odds is pretty stupid in my opinion.

But before any money is put down bookies set the odds, so what are they basing that on?

The answer is probability and then the weight of money put down will surely influence fluctuations?

That's my understanding anyway.

 

[even steven]

Bookies odds are not an accurate measure of the probability of an event. All bookies odds tell you with any precision is how much you would win if the event you back actually happens, not the chances of that event happening. So to imply that Lo Celso is more likely to come because one bookie shortened their odds is pretty stupid in my opinion.

The bookies odds of something happening is them offering their probability.
If they offered me 2/1 on an event that's 50% going to happen, that's good value for me. Finding your probability and weighing it against their probability (the odds) is how to determine 'good value'.
With transfers it's different but I was just replying to the statement of 'that's not how odds work' when infact it is.

 

[bceej]

Probably changed odds to encourage bets