Simon Monastyrskyj
ParkLaneYid
- Aug 31, 2012
- 14
- 6
Do all 4 days every year and going Sunday for the preview night. If you’ve never been you’ve got to try it
Horse Racing Tips
- Thread starter Hotspur88
- Start date
poc
Well-Known Member
- Aug 6, 2004
- 3,247
- 3,665
Me tooWouldn’t mind it raining on the first day actually as I have Constitution Hill in a 4 way festival Acca.
dagraham
Well-Known Member
- Sep 20, 2005
- 19,149
- 46,142
Yeah I would probably take Jonbon at the prices right now.
Wanted to place the bet a couple of weeks ago though before the prices of my other picks went potentially odds on, so took a bit of a flyer that Constitution Hill could be a bit of a monster. Although I take the argument that maybe it hasn’t beaten much.
To be honest the Supreme is pretty open and probably not the best race to put in an Acca, but I thought I’d continue my tradition of failed multiples at the Cheltenham Festival
.
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
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I'll be there Tues and Wed
I can actually see the British winning the 1st 3 races but not many more for the rest of the week
My current fancies for Day one are below but obviously a lot can change in 4 weeks
Supreme - Kilcruit EW
Arkle - Edwardstone
Champion Hurdle - Quilixios ( w/o Honeysuckle )
Mares Hurdle - Stormy Ireland
NH Chase - Stattler
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
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Couple early tips for Grand National after weights released
Grand National Aintree 9th April Burrows Saint 0.75pt ew 25-1, Farclas 0.75pt ew 25-1 5 Places We killed the National last year when we had three selections, the winner, Minella Times and the fourth Burrows Saint. I want to get in early, while the prices are decent and before horses fall away at Cheltenham. Neither selection will run at Cheltenham and have had their entire season geared towards the big one. I really like both chances at this stage and if they both get there in one piece, I can’t see how either is anywhere near the price they are now. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised, if come the day, either end up as near favourite. We will lose a couple of places, when some firms will offer up to 8 places, even maybe more, but its about taking the price at this stage and getting us ahead of the market come the day. Burrows Saint was a selection last year and ran a cracker to finish fourth. I hear a few pundits saying he didn’t stay, and that works well for me, as I think when horses go over the National trip for the first time, unless they win or finish strongly, it is easy to say they didn’t stay. Ridden last year by Patrick Mullins, I think he saw far too much of the front and had little in reserve, and will all respect to Mullins junior, I would expect Paul Townend to ride this year, as Mullins has him as his primary hope. That has to be worth so much in terms of big race nerves and, lets be honest, tactics and technique. There is no better jockey riding than Townend, than maybe Davy Russell. That is a fair trade up in my books. Winner of the Irish National as a six year old, it tells me stamina shouldn’t be an issue and Willie had a sparkle in his eye at the weights dinner, when he suggested they were tweaking things and taking a slightly different training path to ensure he arrives there on 9th April, spot on. As he went off 9-1 last year with Mullins on board, the 25-1 looks fantastic. For those of a like mind I would even have a bit more on the exchanges with a view to trading some back, as his price will surely shorten. Just behind him last year in the race was Farclas. The grey was only 7 last year and ran a ridiculously good race for a horse of that age. Again, with a year on his back, he can only still be improving, strengthening and developing more stamina. A clear round around the fences, has to be worth at least 5 pounds over those that haven’t and he gets a nice pull at the weights with his stablemate Run Wild Fred, who is the one the stable are bigging up in all the pre race chit chat. Again, another horse who is having his whole season geared towards the National, I like that Elliott didn’t mention him in some of his Aintree ceremony chats and, I suspect they are hoping he stays under the radar. With a second in the Troytown and a Paddy Power Plate at the Festival, this ex winner of the Triumph Hurdle, could well be considered the next Tiger Roll as his ticks so many of the same boxes. |
tototoner
Staying Alert
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Nice piece with a lot of pointers for Cheltenham from Racing Post today
www.racingpost.com
Big-race tips: why this horse can win at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival
With the Cheltenham Festival now just weeks away, we asked Racing Post tipsters and editorial staff for their best bets of the week. Here is what... Read More
www.racingpost.com
tototoner
Staying Alert
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Pricewise Cheltenham Q&A
www.racingpost.com
'I can't see him being beaten' - Pricewise guru Tom Segal answers your questions
This piece was first published on February 17 exclusively for our Members' Club subscribers and has now been made available to read for free. Sign up... Read More
www.racingpost.com
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
- 29,408
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Listened to a few podcasts and watched Previews on YouTube over weekend and this is what I got from them.
Ballymore - Adamantly Chosen 200/1 EW with Bet365 NRNB ( Long Shot Podcast ) - if it runs, Willie Mullins horse
Boodles - Saint Riquier 50/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
Grand Annual - For Pleasure 25/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
NH Chase - Ontheropes 14/1 EW ( Ruby Walsh has put this up )
Coral Cup - Camprond 12/1 EW ( David Jennings and Paul Kealy )
Plate Chase - West Cork Wildway 20/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Martin Pipe - Deploy The Getaway 12/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Ultima - Noble Yeats 10/1 EW ( Paul Kealy )
Tom Segal 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - L'homme Presse in RSA
LAY - Facile Vega in Bumper
EW - Doctor Parnassis in Triumph
Paul Kealy 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - Alaphillipe in Pertemps
LAY - Brandi Love in Mare Novice HDL
EW - West Cork Wildway in Plate
Will obviously listen to more this week and I also just received the Racing Post Cheltenham 2022 Preview Guide which is always a good read
Ballymore - Adamantly Chosen 200/1 EW with Bet365 NRNB ( Long Shot Podcast ) - if it runs, Willie Mullins horse
Boodles - Saint Riquier 50/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
Grand Annual - For Pleasure 25/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
NH Chase - Ontheropes 14/1 EW ( Ruby Walsh has put this up )
Coral Cup - Camprond 12/1 EW ( David Jennings and Paul Kealy )
Plate Chase - West Cork Wildway 20/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Martin Pipe - Deploy The Getaway 12/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Ultima - Noble Yeats 10/1 EW ( Paul Kealy )
Tom Segal 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - L'homme Presse in RSA
LAY - Facile Vega in Bumper
EW - Doctor Parnassis in Triumph
Paul Kealy 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - Alaphillipe in Pertemps
LAY - Brandi Love in Mare Novice HDL
EW - West Cork Wildway in Plate
Will obviously listen to more this week and I also just received the Racing Post Cheltenham 2022 Preview Guide which is always a good read
Insomnia
Twisted Firestarter
- Jan 18, 2006
- 20,209
- 55,574
thanks for sharing, these always come in handy, just over a week to go now, excited muchListened to a few podcasts and watched Previews on YouTube over weekend and this is what I got from them.
Ballymore - Adamantly Chosen 200/1 EW with Bet365 NRNB ( Long Shot Podcast ) - if it runs, Willie Mullins horse
Boodles - Saint Riquier 50/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
Grand Annual - For Pleasure 25/1 EW ( Long Shot Podcast )
NH Chase - Ontheropes 14/1 EW ( Ruby Walsh has put this up )
Coral Cup - Camprond 12/1 EW ( David Jennings and Paul Kealy )
Plate Chase - West Cork Wildway 20/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Martin Pipe - Deploy The Getaway 12/1 EW ( Tom Segal and Paul Kealy )
Ultima - Noble Yeats 10/1 EW ( Paul Kealy )
Tom Segal 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - L'homme Presse in RSA
LAY - Facile Vega in Bumper
EW - Doctor Parnassis in Triumph
Paul Kealy 3 from yesterdays Racing Post Preview
NAP - Alaphillipe in Pertemps
LAY - Brandi Love in Mare Novice HDL
EW - West Cork Wildway in Plate
Will obviously listen to more this week and I also just received the Racing Post Cheltenham 2022 Preview Guide which is always a good read
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
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a wee bit
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
- 29,408
- 34,142
Today's Front Runner article on Odds-on runners at the Cheltenham Festival by Chris Cook
There were quite a few interesting responses to Friday's Front Runner, some of them in the Letters section below, with a common theme being: "Please tell us what happened to all those odds-on shots at recent Cheltenham Festivals". I didn't do that on Friday because it wasn't central to my point that a lot of these races are less thrilling in anticipation than they used to be, but let's do it now in case there might be something worth learning before we repeat old mistakes next week.
I researched the fate of all odds-on shots at the Festival since 2004. In the study I did last week, that was the earliest year which had multiple odds-on favourites; the previous 15 Festivals had either none or just one. Odds-on shots are now coming at an increasing rate, currently five per year on average.
Since 2004, whether they win or lose is very nearly a coin flip. There have been 27 winners and 26 losers, a 51 per cent strike-rate for a net loss of 18 per cent of stakes. Surely no one will be surprised that taking SP about the very shortest Festival favourites is a bad betting strategy.
In case anyone is minded to string together the shorties in an acca, this has also proved a blind alley for the most part. There have been 13 Festivals since 2004 with multiple odds-on shots; at least one of them has managed to get beat at 11 of those Festivals.
The two exceptions were 2011, when Quevega and Big Buck's both did the business, and 2013, when the three good things all came home in front: Simonsig, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre.
Things have gone rather badly at the last couple of Festivals, with three winners out of seven last year and just one from six the year before. This is certainly a point in favour of those who contend that, although we're sending off more horses at odds-on, it's still not easy to identify Festival winners.
Think of all that accumulated learning from past Cheltenhams, the ready access to form, statistics and video replays, the reams of handicapping software, the endless preview nights. And yet we keep plunging on the wrong gee-gees. Somewhere up in the mists, the Racing Gods do a collective facepalm as they remember us making Chacun Pour Soi 8-13 for the Champion Chase...
I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it's mean to pick on a single example which is bound to be a painful trigger for some. And of course there was a perfectly good case to be made for every one of these horses. It just didn't work out on the day.
But for punters like me, who hardly ever get involved at odds-on, that's really the point. Stuff happens, so you need a margin for error in the odds you take.
Damon Runyon wrote an enthralling story called All Horse Players Die Broke, in which a punter stakes his entire bank on a 1-6 shot to finish in the first three in a four-horse Flat race. Runyon's narrator approves of the bet because: "There is really nothing that can make Cara Mia run out of the money, the way I look at it, except what happens to her..."
It would have come as no surprise to Runyon when Envoi Allen lost an argument with the fourth fence. "You guys made him 4-9, did ya? In a novice chase? I guess it's your money. Was your money."
Would Runyon have dared write about two odds-on shots carrying the same colours, crashing out at the final hurdle of the same race, just four years apart? That's the story of Annie Power and Benie Des Dieux, in case any of you missed it.
How can you tell those punters that they made a mistake? Annie Power only fell once in her life. Benie Des Dieux only fell once in her life. They were very obviously the best horses in those races and yet all those stakes were raked in.
God is a bookie. How else to explain a horse like Benie Des Dieux, whose only win in the Mares Hurdle came at 9-2 as she foiled those who made Apple's Jade the 1-2 favourite? When they tried to get it back on Benie the next year, she fell. The year after that, she was even shorter at 4-6 but it turned out she was trying to beat Honeysuckle.
In the eyes of Cheltenham punters, there ain't nothing like a mare, nothing in the world. The Mares Hurdle favourite has been odds-on an amazing nine times in the past ten years and what makes it amazing is the last of them to win was Vroum Vroum Mag in 2016.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is another race where we tend to get, as Runyon would say, a little daffy over some horse. There have been seven odds-on favourites in the last ten years and five of them have somehow wriggled out of winning.
Again, no blame. It probably wasn't very wise to make Un De Sceaux 4-6 to beat Sprinter Sacre that time but I'm speaking with the full benefit of hindsight. The next year came Douvan. There was really nothing that could make him run out of the money, except what happened to him, which was a fractured pelvis.
The race we're really good at is the Arkle: seven odds-on favourites from the last ten years, all winners. If the jolly isn't odds-on, like this year, look out! You might get a Western Warhorse (33-1) or a Put The Kettle On (16-1).
As I scan the list of beaten hotpots, one common theme suggesting itself is that we tend to get a bit over-excited about horses that won at the previous Festival. This is perfectly natural because if there is one lesson that features in every single list of punting dos and don'ts, it's Look Out For Repeat Winners At Cheltenham. Many of them do indeed go in again but it's not like we've been handed the keys to the vault.
Anyway, that could explain some of the shortness of Envoi Allen and Concertista last year, Defi Du Seuil, Tiger Roll and Paisley Park the year before, Apple's Jade and Un De Sceaux in 2018, Douvan and Unowhatimeanharry 12 months earlier.
Does that help? Honeysuckle, Shishkin and Allaho are all odds-on for next week, having won at last year's Festival. History suggests they won't all make it to the winner's enclosure, though the reason for any defeat may be hard to anticipate.
I maintain that the presence of several hot favourites at a single Festival is a sign we have failed to sustain competition levels. But this little canter through the recent past shows tension and drama have remained very high indeed. Have we been lucky or is it just what happens when you stage racing at Prestbury Park in mid-March?
There were quite a few interesting responses to Friday's Front Runner, some of them in the Letters section below, with a common theme being: "Please tell us what happened to all those odds-on shots at recent Cheltenham Festivals". I didn't do that on Friday because it wasn't central to my point that a lot of these races are less thrilling in anticipation than they used to be, but let's do it now in case there might be something worth learning before we repeat old mistakes next week.
I researched the fate of all odds-on shots at the Festival since 2004. In the study I did last week, that was the earliest year which had multiple odds-on favourites; the previous 15 Festivals had either none or just one. Odds-on shots are now coming at an increasing rate, currently five per year on average.
Since 2004, whether they win or lose is very nearly a coin flip. There have been 27 winners and 26 losers, a 51 per cent strike-rate for a net loss of 18 per cent of stakes. Surely no one will be surprised that taking SP about the very shortest Festival favourites is a bad betting strategy.
In case anyone is minded to string together the shorties in an acca, this has also proved a blind alley for the most part. There have been 13 Festivals since 2004 with multiple odds-on shots; at least one of them has managed to get beat at 11 of those Festivals.
The two exceptions were 2011, when Quevega and Big Buck's both did the business, and 2013, when the three good things all came home in front: Simonsig, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre.
Things have gone rather badly at the last couple of Festivals, with three winners out of seven last year and just one from six the year before. This is certainly a point in favour of those who contend that, although we're sending off more horses at odds-on, it's still not easy to identify Festival winners.
Think of all that accumulated learning from past Cheltenhams, the ready access to form, statistics and video replays, the reams of handicapping software, the endless preview nights. And yet we keep plunging on the wrong gee-gees. Somewhere up in the mists, the Racing Gods do a collective facepalm as they remember us making Chacun Pour Soi 8-13 for the Champion Chase...
I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it's mean to pick on a single example which is bound to be a painful trigger for some. And of course there was a perfectly good case to be made for every one of these horses. It just didn't work out on the day.
But for punters like me, who hardly ever get involved at odds-on, that's really the point. Stuff happens, so you need a margin for error in the odds you take.
Damon Runyon wrote an enthralling story called All Horse Players Die Broke, in which a punter stakes his entire bank on a 1-6 shot to finish in the first three in a four-horse Flat race. Runyon's narrator approves of the bet because: "There is really nothing that can make Cara Mia run out of the money, the way I look at it, except what happens to her..."
It would have come as no surprise to Runyon when Envoi Allen lost an argument with the fourth fence. "You guys made him 4-9, did ya? In a novice chase? I guess it's your money. Was your money."
Would Runyon have dared write about two odds-on shots carrying the same colours, crashing out at the final hurdle of the same race, just four years apart? That's the story of Annie Power and Benie Des Dieux, in case any of you missed it.
How can you tell those punters that they made a mistake? Annie Power only fell once in her life. Benie Des Dieux only fell once in her life. They were very obviously the best horses in those races and yet all those stakes were raked in.
God is a bookie. How else to explain a horse like Benie Des Dieux, whose only win in the Mares Hurdle came at 9-2 as she foiled those who made Apple's Jade the 1-2 favourite? When they tried to get it back on Benie the next year, she fell. The year after that, she was even shorter at 4-6 but it turned out she was trying to beat Honeysuckle.
In the eyes of Cheltenham punters, there ain't nothing like a mare, nothing in the world. The Mares Hurdle favourite has been odds-on an amazing nine times in the past ten years and what makes it amazing is the last of them to win was Vroum Vroum Mag in 2016.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is another race where we tend to get, as Runyon would say, a little daffy over some horse. There have been seven odds-on favourites in the last ten years and five of them have somehow wriggled out of winning.
Again, no blame. It probably wasn't very wise to make Un De Sceaux 4-6 to beat Sprinter Sacre that time but I'm speaking with the full benefit of hindsight. The next year came Douvan. There was really nothing that could make him run out of the money, except what happened to him, which was a fractured pelvis.
The race we're really good at is the Arkle: seven odds-on favourites from the last ten years, all winners. If the jolly isn't odds-on, like this year, look out! You might get a Western Warhorse (33-1) or a Put The Kettle On (16-1).
As I scan the list of beaten hotpots, one common theme suggesting itself is that we tend to get a bit over-excited about horses that won at the previous Festival. This is perfectly natural because if there is one lesson that features in every single list of punting dos and don'ts, it's Look Out For Repeat Winners At Cheltenham. Many of them do indeed go in again but it's not like we've been handed the keys to the vault.
Anyway, that could explain some of the shortness of Envoi Allen and Concertista last year, Defi Du Seuil, Tiger Roll and Paisley Park the year before, Apple's Jade and Un De Sceaux in 2018, Douvan and Unowhatimeanharry 12 months earlier.
Does that help? Honeysuckle, Shishkin and Allaho are all odds-on for next week, having won at last year's Festival. History suggests they won't all make it to the winner's enclosure, though the reason for any defeat may be hard to anticipate.
I maintain that the presence of several hot favourites at a single Festival is a sign we have failed to sustain competition levels. But this little canter through the recent past shows tension and drama have remained very high indeed. Have we been lucky or is it just what happens when you stage racing at Prestbury Park in mid-March?
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
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Another useful link, every little helps
www.narrowingthefield.co.uk
Five Cheltenham Festival stats that will need to be broken in 2022...
Will the Irish continue their domination at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival? Probably... but as punters we need to make use...
www.narrowingthefield.co.uk
tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
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Anyone else been watching any previews ?
Watched a few more last few days and these horses all well tipped up in 1st 2 races against the other well fancied horses
Supreme - Mighty Potter
Arkle - Magic Daze
Paddy Power Preview 7-March:
Ruby Walsh
NAP - Stormy Ireland ( Mares Hurdle )
NB - Capadanno ( old RSA )
Tony Mullins
NAP - Dinoblue ( Mares Nov. HDL )
NB - Galopin Des Champs ( wherever it runs )
Lydia Hislop
NAP - Dinoblue ( Mares Nov. HDL )
Frank Hickey ( Paddy Power )
NAP - Party Central ( Mares Nov. HDL )
NB - Hillcreast ( Albert Bartlett )
ATR Preveiw 3-March
Jamie Codd
NAP - Shishkin
LAY - Bob Olinger - he doesn't think it jumps fences well enough
EW - Teahupoo
Kevin Blake
NAP - Winter Fog ( Pertemps )
LAY - Vauban ( Triumph )
EW - Drop The Anchor ( Coral )
Matt Chapman
NAP - Shishkin
LAY - A PLus Tard ( Gold Cup )
EW - Gowel Road ( Coral Cup )
Watched a few more last few days and these horses all well tipped up in 1st 2 races against the other well fancied horses
Supreme - Mighty Potter
Arkle - Magic Daze
Paddy Power Preview 7-March:
Ruby Walsh
NAP - Stormy Ireland ( Mares Hurdle )
NB - Capadanno ( old RSA )
Tony Mullins
NAP - Dinoblue ( Mares Nov. HDL )
NB - Galopin Des Champs ( wherever it runs )
Lydia Hislop
NAP - Dinoblue ( Mares Nov. HDL )
Frank Hickey ( Paddy Power )
NAP - Party Central ( Mares Nov. HDL )
NB - Hillcreast ( Albert Bartlett )
ATR Preveiw 3-March
Jamie Codd
NAP - Shishkin
LAY - Bob Olinger - he doesn't think it jumps fences well enough
EW - Teahupoo
Kevin Blake
NAP - Winter Fog ( Pertemps )
LAY - Vauban ( Triumph )
EW - Drop The Anchor ( Coral )
Matt Chapman
NAP - Shishkin
LAY - A PLus Tard ( Gold Cup )
EW - Gowel Road ( Coral Cup )
poc
Well-Known Member
- Aug 6, 2004
- 3,247
- 3,665
Yeap watching quite a few trying to not let them sway me too much lol.
the tide turns
Dinoblue
Saint sam
Magic daze
Burning Victory
All have been mentioned a fair bit avoiding the obvious selections (well a couple might be but not necessarily fave) I have all of these in nrnb accas
felmani26
SC Supporter
- Jan 1, 2008
- 24,624
- 43,618
Yea watched similar and Matt Chapman was definitely not in favour of Honeysuckle but it's hard to back against her although personally i'll likely be going to Teahupoo on the day at the course for some value.
Supreme is such a hard race to call but quite possibly the best unexposed line up in my time going to Chelts and you feel this will be one that the bookies will relish with such open betting at the top of the market.
Conversely I think the Mares looks pretty shit this year and for me it'll likely be one of the Mullins i'll plump for and probably Burning Victory.
dagraham
Well-Known Member
- Sep 20, 2005
- 19,149
- 46,142
Yeah I’ve been watching a few as well.
Think the Race hour one was the most entertaining.
They seemed very keen on Frontal Assault for the Kim Muir ( although the price has gone at 4/1).
Seems to be quite a few shouts in all the previews for Coer Sublime e/w in the Arkle and Minella Indo in the Gold Cup ( I had been put off before to be honest, but may reconsider).
Have one acca already and trying at the moment to choose a Yankee or Lucky 15.
I always fall foul of multiples at Cheltenham, but seems I can just never resist.
Gbspurs
Gatekeeper for debates, King of the plonkers
- Jan 27, 2011
- 26,997
- 61,919
I'm going to Cheltenham on Wednesday. Never been to see the big dogs before! What's the best way to decide who to bet on so I don't bankrupt myself in 1 day?
Normally with the little dogs I just bet on whichever one does a shit in the warm up as obviously they will be lighter. I presume this is how the experts decide too?
Normally with the little dogs I just bet on whichever one does a shit in the warm up as obviously they will be lighter. I presume this is how the experts decide too?
dagraham
Well-Known Member
- Sep 20, 2005
- 19,149
- 46,142
Lol, that old chestnut
. Been years since I went to the dogs, but always heard it.My record at Cheltenham has been poor the last couple of years, so not sure I’m best placed to give any tips, but I would advise small stakes and bear in mind that as attractive as multiples of short prices favourites may be, jumps racing is often unpredictable.
Try and look at some E/W value angles.
Last edited:
Houdini
No better cure for the blues than some good pussy.
- Jul 10, 2006
- 56,815
- 78,724
Some firms will be giving extra places so a usual 1-2-3 could be 1-2-3-4-5 with Willhill or Skybet.
If you do fancy an e/w ACCA then look for those offering the extra places.
Shorter prices but increased chances of a return.
Good luck ?
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