Which is fairer? Coronavirus implications

[vegassd]

Whatever happens, the Premier League does not exist in a bubble so a lot of the unfairnesses that we talk about a going to heavily dependent on other leagues here and in Europe.

Domestically there will be a number of clubs that go out of business, depending of course on how long the restrictions last and what sort of compensation may come from the FA/PL to help those clubs. If we tried to finish all domestic seasons with some clubs no longer existing it will affect fairness and relegation/promotion figures are going to have to be skewed.

With the CL and EL you would think that qualification for the 2020/21 season (if it happens) would need agreement between all the European federations which might not be possible. And when you try to factor in issues around player contracts and transfers it becomes even messier.

Something that might work (in my ignorant view) is to scrap the 20/21 CL and EL competitions and just pick up the usual knockout phase of the 19/20 competition based on where it got to this season. We can probably assume that CL and EL teams will not be those going out of business. The 20/21 season could be played as normal with teams competing to qualify for CL and EL 21/22.

That would remove financial complications about which teams from this season qualify which would have inevitably ended up with legal challenges. I think it would also allow the top tier leagues to be voided or concluded early more easily because it's one less faff to worry about.

Once the top tier leagues were "dealt with" I think it becomes easier to have all lower leagues concluded early with relegation/promotion frozen for this season. It would seem destructive to relegate/promote teams if they don't have a decent transfer window to prepare for their coming season, and the players at clubs going bust will need to be made available in some sort of fair manner. So I reckon starting 20/21 with the same teams in the same leagues (minus the bust teams) with no transfer restrictions would allow for fairness, scheduling and teams to sell/buy in order to stay afloat.

Only time will tell. We don't yet know if this virus is the shock of adding a new flu to the world or if it will reshape society. Families and businesses are going to be under enormous financial pressure and the whole idea of paying to watch football might be out the window.

 

[EZSpur]

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

PLEASE READ AND FORCE PEOPLE TO ACT!!!

Really interesting article.
Thanks for posting.

My question however is this - to what degree do you self-isolate?
Should you not have personal contact with ANY of the outside world for a set period of time? ie no going out to get supplies or dropping things off to loved ones (elderly family/friends).
Would this effectively reset the n+20 period and thus increase potential active cases?

Also, if the action in this article is followed (and by all accounts, it's what the UK is trying to do...albeit more slowly than other countries), then there is absolutely no chance of the PL starting up again.
I believe as of April 4th the league will be declared null and void - it's the only logical and fairest resolution.
In fact all legal implications go out of the window too as surely there is actually no way of imposing any blame.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

Really interesting article.
Thanks for posting.

My question however is this - to what degree do you self-isolate?
Should you not have personal contact with ANY of the outside world for a set period of time? ie no going out to get supplies or dropping things off to loved ones (elderly family/friends).

You can help out and drop off things but all at a healthy distance.
So for instance, I dropped of stuff at my neighbour's this morning. I put the stuff on her doorstep, knocked, stepped away, and the we had a little chat at a safe distance. It's not like the virus just floats in the air at all distances.
When shopping I stayed much farther away from everyone else, didn't use cash, washed my hands etc. etc. etc. That's about what I'll do outdoors today.

 

[UbeAstard]

My suggestion is they nominate 5 players from each club to play the remaining games remotely on Fifa 20....

 

[spursfan77]

Our players are in training this week according to the guy who covers us for the Athletic

 

[Spurslove]

Our players are in training this week according to the guy who covers us for the Athletic

Whatever happens, the Premier League does not exist in a bubble so a lot of the unfairnesses that we talk about a going to heavily dependent on other leagues here and in Europe.

Domestically there will be a number of clubs that go out of business, depending of course on how long the restrictions last and what sort of compensation may come from the FA/PL to help those clubs. If we tried to finish all domestic seasons with some clubs no longer existing it will affect fairness and relegation/promotion figures are going to have to be skewed.

With the CL and EL you would think that qualification for the 2020/21 season (if it happens) would need agreement between all the European federations which might not be possible. And when you try to factor in issues around player contracts and transfers it becomes even messier.

Something that might work (in my ignorant view) is to scrap the 20/21 CL and EL competitions and just pick up the usual knockout phase of the 19/20 competition based on where it got to this season. We can probably assume that CL and EL teams will not be those going out of business. The 20/21 season could be played as normal with teams competing to qualify for CL and EL 21/22.

That would remove financial complications about which teams from this season qualify which would have inevitably ended up with legal challenges. I think it would also allow the top tier leagues to be voided or concluded early more easily because it's one less faff to worry about.

Once the top tier leagues were "dealt with" I think it becomes easier to have all lower leagues concluded early with relegation/promotion frozen for this season. It would seem destructive to relegate/promote teams if they don't have a decent transfer window to prepare for their coming season, and the players at clubs going bust will need to be made available in some sort of fair manner. So I reckon starting 20/21 with the same teams in the same leagues (minus the bust teams) with no transfer restrictions would allow for fairness, scheduling and teams to sell/buy in order to stay afloat.

Only time will tell. We don't yet know if this virus is the shock of adding a new flu to the world or if it will reshape society. Families and businesses are going to be under enormous financial pressure and the whole idea of paying to watch football might be out the window.

This is an interesting idea. Millions of people can't afford season tickets these days, so play all games behind closed doors (while the currrent crisis hopefully plays itself out...) and televise all the games on SKY, BT Sport, BBC and ITV charging subscriptions for every game you want to watch, say £40 per match and DON'T allow games to be televised in pubs and bars. That would answer the concerns about mass gatherings in all the pubs around empty football stadiums.

Maybe at last, we could see the end of the outrageous wages footballers earn and bring them all down to earth, rejoining the real world.

.

 

[vegassd]

This is an interesting idea. Millions of people can't afford season tickets these days, so play all games behind closed doors (while the currrent crisis hopefully plays itself out...) and televise all the games on SKY, BT Sport, BBC and ITV charging subscriptions for every game you want to watch, say £40 per match and DON'T allow games to be televised in pubs and bars. That would answer the concerns about mass gatherings in all the pubs around empty football stadiums.

Maybe at last, we could see the end of the outrageous wages footballers earn and bring them all down to earth, rejoining the real world.

My guess would be that the PL would like to finish out the season behind closed doors so they can fulfill their TV deals but that certainly wouldn't help out the lower league clubs who rely on the fans attending. I would also imagine many legal issues involved with televising matches on the BBC and ITV based on how the TV rights are sold.

Even if you could get past the legal and technical challenges of setting up a pay-per-view system available to all viewers (eg. non-cable/satellite) that worked for all leagues there would still be a concern about demand. How many people would pay to watch a game if they don't get the matchday experience? I'm sure there would be plenty of uptake for PL fans, but below that I would imagine many fans choose to save their money.

I think that unless the virus defies expectations and tails off soon(ish) there will be a lot of companies losing a lot of money. The best we can hope for is that a financial powerhouse like the Premier League sees this as an opportunity to do something good and help the other leagues/clubs in the country.

 

[Oh Teddy Teddy]

Not read much of these 13 pages. But whichever option benefits Spurs the most is fairest.

Pedro Mendes. The final of 2012. Now it’s our turn

 

[Spurslove]

My guess would be that the PL would like to finish out the season behind closed doors so they can fulfill their TV deals but that certainly wouldn't help out the lower league clubs who rely on the fans attending. I would also imagine many legal issues involved with televising matches on the BBC and ITV based on how the TV rights are sold.

Even if you could get past the legal and technical challenges of setting up a pay-per-view system available to all viewers (eg. non-cable/satellite) that worked for all leagues there would still be a concern about demand. How many people would pay to watch a game if they don't get the matchday experience? I'm sure there would be plenty of uptake for PL fans, but below that I would imagine many fans choose to save their money.

I think that unless the virus defies expectations and tails off soon(ish) there will be a lot of companies losing a lot of money. The best we can hope for is that a financial powerhouse like the Premier League sees this as an opportunity to do something good and help the other leagues/clubs in the country.

I wouldn't hold my breath if i were you.

.

 

[whitesocks]

The footy wasn't cancelled for crowd safety, but because the players were having to self isolate and games were being cancelled at short notice.
It is a contact sport with lots of panting, cuddling, communal baths and gobbing at each other, so players are a very infectious group. If one player gets it, they are all a high risk and it is a dangerous notifiable disease. They can't turn a blind eye.

Boris actively wanted the big events to continue to maximise the spread of the virus so herd immunity would be achieved faster. Fans were not the consideration. Quite the reverse - Cummings was probably demanding the infected dead were catapulted into the stadiums, as they did in the sieges of old.

Most likely we will have to wait until the bulk of the population has acquired immunity the hard way. That might be 4 months - longer if everyone else hides away at home. Once players are out of their gated communities and training, their herd immunity should quickly match the outside world.
So maybe games can continue in August - the new season.

Europa and CL pre qualifiers start in June so they'll be no european games - having another 2 sides in the prem will help make up the fixtures. 3 sides coming up would be even better.

Boris' plague aside, it is going to be a very very tough extended summer with no footy.

 

[WePlayWednesday]

I don’t wish to be a downer here, but from reports in Italy, some young, fit people are dying from Corona also. That could seriously impact football and the guys and girls who play for us each week. We’re being premature in trying to work out the end game, we just don’t know how different the world will be in a week let alone 3 months.

Its not unreasonable to think that out of 256m pro footballers in the world, 4% could die at worst case numbers. That’s 1m dead. Even at 2% that’s 500,000. That’s bound to have an effect on teams, and could mean we lose players, either temporarily or permanently.

Source:https://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/bcoffsurv/emaga_9384_10704.pdf

Yes, getting football back on again will be a great thing for society, unity and happiness. I think it’s premature to forecast yet. What do we do if players die who could have had an influence on titles, CL, relegation, promotion? Do we then leave the season incomplete as a memorial to them?

I think this is something we should seriously consider. Which is why no FA, not English, French or German is making decisions.

Some things are more important than football.

 

[thebenjamin]

Reading that Imperial report really brings it home what a fundamdamental change to our lives there will be for the next few years. And it makes it abundantly clear that any talk of football resuming this year is absolute pie in the sky. Literally can't see any way it could happen without extremely stringent measures like obviously behind closed doors, but every member of staff at every club tested every day. Clubs operating almost like laboratories. If one person tests positive then everything has to stop again. I don't see how it's workable. Obviously for this season and probably next season, I'd say August 2021 at best. Certainly there won't be fans in a stadium for a very long time.

I do worry about THFC and our stadium repayments as we are going to lose tens of millions. None of the events we have planned for the next 12 months are going to happen. I hope we have understanding banks.

 

[jimbo]

Doesn't help with the domestic situation but i wonder if the fairest way to settle European qualification for the next season (if there is one) would be on UEFA co-efficient. It's hard on Sheff Utd, Wolves et al but it rewards consistency in qualification and tournament progression over a few seasons.

Award CL place 1 to the English team with the highest co-efficient, place 2 to the next and so on for the 7 available Euro spots.

 

[Trotter]

I don’t wish to be a downer here, but from reports in Italy, some young, fit people are dying from Corona also. That could seriously impact football and the guys and girls who play for us each week. We’re being premature in trying to work out the end game, we just don’t know how different the world will be in a week let alone 3 months.

Its not unreasonable to think that out of 256m pro footballers in the world, 4% could die at worst case numbers. That’s 1m dead. Even at 2% that’s 500,000. That’s bound to have an effect on teams, and could mean we lose players, either temporarily or permanently.

Source:https://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/bcoffsurv/emaga_9384_10704.pdf

Yes, getting football back on again will be a great thing for society, unity and happiness. I think it’s premature to forecast yet. What do we do if players die who could have had an influence on titles, CL, relegation, promotion? Do we then leave the season incomplete as a memorial to them?

I think this is something we should seriously consider. Which is why no FA, not English, French or German is making decisions.

Some things are more important than football.

256m pro footballers in the world ?

It will be max 1m people across the world that are pro footballers.

 

[WePlayWednesday]

256m pro footballers in the world ?

It will be max 1m people across the world that are pro footballers.

Yeah, probably. Because FIFA are a totally honest and upfront. I see your point ?

 

[Marty]

Euros postponed to next summer, clashing with Women's Euros and FIFA's new Club World Cup as things stand.

UEFA obviously hope the club seasons won't be voided and can resume over the summer. I'm not so sure.

 

[Trotter]

Yeah, probably. Because FIFA are a totally honest and upfront. I see your point ?

They never claimed 256m were pro footballers.
You just misinterpreted it. that way.
They said 265m people played football in the world, the vast vast majority are grassroots weekend and small sided football.

 

[WePlayWednesday]

They never claimed 256m were pro footballers.
You just misinterpreted it. that way.
They said 265m people played football in the world, the vast vast majority are grassroots weekend and small sided football.

Fair enough. I think the point remains that we don’t know what the effects of this virus will be, how many will die and how many people might not fully recover. There are bigger things at stake right now than titles and qualification for Europe.

 

[whitesocks]

I don’t wish to be a downer here, but from reports in Italy, some young, fit people are dying from Corona also. That could seriously impact football and the guys and girls who play for us each week. We’re being premature in trying to work out the end game, we just don’t know how different the world will be in a week let alone 3 months.

Its not unreasonable to think that out of 256m pro footballers in the world, 4% could die at worst case numbers. That’s 1m dead. Even at 2% that’s 500,000. That’s bound to have an effect on teams, and could mean we lose players, either temporarily or permanently.

Source:https://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/bcoffsurv/emaga_9384_10704.pdf

Yes, getting football back on again will be a great thing for society, unity and happiness. I think it’s premature to forecast yet. What do we do if players die who could have had an influence on titles, CL, relegation, promotion? Do we then leave the season incomplete as a memorial to them?

I think this is something we should seriously consider. Which is why no FA, not English, French or German is making decisions.

Some things are more important than football.

For the average footballer's age range, then i think the death rate is 1 in 500 from this.
500 is a rough estimate of the number of premiership players... so 1 will possibly die.

Something like 1 in 5 might be hospitalised and of them a number will be put in intensive care.
This is a serious situation and although young men will generally recover, will they ever get their premiership fitness back? Their lungs could easily have permanent scarring. How many might that be? 5? 50?

Of course footballers are incredibly fit and eat well, unlike most in their age range. But are their immune systems much better, given the stress and strain they put themselves under twice a week?
Retired footballers often seem to come down with heart problems early - maybe football isn't as healthy as we think?
So I don't think we can dismiss the statistics as not applying to athletes as we just don't know.

Lets say 2 Tottenham players have to retire because of this. Is it such a big deal? We've had Dembele and Wanyama effectively retire recently, and injury has taken a part of Wink's game. Same for Rose, Kane and Dier to some extent. The game is cruel and every game could be their last. The turnover is high, and losing 2 players would not be catastrophic although knowing our luck they would be GLC and Kane.

For me the weak link for our club is Joe Lewis. He is at high risk and gives the club its financial confidence. This is not the time to lose a rich guarantor.

 

[Erm33]

Only sensible thing is to just call time on this season. Void it in its entirety. Get back to football when it's safe to do so. No time limit or deadline pre-set when no one knows what's gonna happen in a week let alone a month or 6 months down the line.