Tottenham Takeover Talk

[brasil_spur]

Stolen off reddit.

Surely we must be a very attractive investment at this point.

 

[Ghost Hardware]

Trust me I know enough about agents to 100% say if we jumped to paying elite level wages we'd be having more phone calls and conversations regarding elite level players instigated by them.

There is one such player(sort of) that we have been enquiring about right now that I have disclosed back of house, and from actual 1 to 1 knowledge from his agent the main stumbling block will be the players salary he's currently on.

What's even the point if that's the case. I mean we all know we need elite level players, we all know we should be able to afford elite level players but we also know Levy won't pay for elite level players. He may offer add on's and bonuses to make the contract offer more palatable but the majority of elite level players that become available usually have a number of teams after them because... well... they are elite and so are less inclined to accept comparatively derisory wages.

As much as I want us to start spending money on players that are of the required caliber to take us up a level I just don't see it happening and I'd rather we didn't spend months chasing them if we have no intention of matching their demands. I mean i'd be pretty confident that even if someone like Rodrygo or Kvaratskhelia expressed interest in coming we wouldn't meet there contract demands so I hold out little hope for anyone further down the talent scale.

 

[Trix]

What's even the point if that's the case. I mean we all know we need elite level players, we all know we should be able to afford elite level players but we also know Levy won't pay for elite level players. He may offer add on's and bonuses to make the contract offer more palatable but the majority of elite level players that become available usually have a number of teams after them because... well... they are elite and so are less inclined to accept comparatively derisory wages.

As much as I want us to start spending money on players that are of the required caliber to take us up a level I just don't see it happening and I'd rather we didn't spend months chasing them if we have no intention of matching their demands. I mean i'd be pretty confident that even if someone like Rodrygo or Kvaratskhelia expressed interest in coming we wouldn't meet there contract demands so I hold out little hope for anyone further down the talent scale.

Exploring what it would take. How much the players current club want him, and what they'd be prepared to do if he moved on(which they might want themselves). Player isn't 100% happy, and we have a good relationship with his camp.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

Trust me I know enough about agents to 100% say if we jumped to paying elite level wages we'd be having more phone calls and conversations regarding elite level players instigated by them.

There is one such player(sort of) that we have been enquiring about right now that I have disclosed back of house, and from actual 1 to 1 knowledge from his agent the main stumbling block will be the players salary he's currently on.

Don't get me wrong - I do agree that we need to start being more competitive with player contracts. I'm just mindful that we wouldn't want to end up with a squad full over overpaid squad players. Our track record when we do "splash the cash" isn't great (Ndombele being the prime example).

During Poch's reign, our wage budget steadily increased as we retained a number of players who were progressing and entering their prime, then jumped up a bit in 2019 when we started to rebuild the squad. It dropped by about 20% this year, which is a bit concerning.

 

[SirHarryHotspur]

Stolen off reddit.

Surely we must be a very attractive investment at this point.

View attachment 147853

As someone has pointed out elsewhere operating income is not profit but it's a nice colourful table..

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

As someone has pointed out elsewhere operating income is not profit but it's a nice colourful table..

People are thinking about this wrong. The table is accurate (as of 2022) - and useful.

EBITDA - is a very important metric. And anyone buying a business will look at EBITDA before they consider "profit" - because EBITDA is a true reflection of the business, while "Profits" are mostly accounting manipulations. Looking at a business's annual cashflow is also more useful than looking at its recorded "profit" - is the company generating cash, or requiring annual investment?

So - as an ongoing enterprise - Spurs are doing very well - relative to other sporting franchises, and that is driving Levy's valuation of the club.


But, this is also a problem. Spurs are doing "too well". For many investors, they want to buy a business (or sports franchise) when the value is low, not high. That allows the new owner to come in with new investment and quickly build up the value of the investment - see Chelsea (twice), Newcastle, and Man City for examples of clubs that were purchased at a discount, relative to their current value. Spurs are being offered at a premium - not a discount. So, it's harder to find an investor willing to match Levy's price - knowing that future growth is already priced into Levy's value of the club. There is not much room for a new owner to see his/her investment jump.

For Levy to get his valuation, he needs an investor who looks at Spurs as a vanity project - not strictly a financial investment. Someone who wants to be in the game, be in London, and be the face of the club, and for whom money is no object. We are beyond the ability for a pure financial investor to come in at Levy's price.

 

[SpursSince1980]

Uh…. What the hell is going on in this thread? Ten pages of ripping ENiC, Daniel, proforma sheets. Takeover news? Nowt.

@YB123 Seriously? Asking if there is news about a Spurs takeover in the takeover thread is OT? If intentional… please help me understand, why it is off topic to want to know if there is any actual new news about about a takeover in the tottenham takeover thread. Speak up. Tell me what is relevant so that I don’t stray down the OT alley again. Pretty please, with a cherry on top?

 

[SpursSince1980]

People are thinking about this wrong. The table is accurate (as of 2022) - and useful.

EBITDA - is a very important metric. And anyone buying a business will look at EBITDA before they consider "profit" - because EBITDA is a true reflection of the business, while "Profits" are mostly accounting manipulations. Looking at a business's annual cashflow is also more useful than looking at its recorded "profit" - is the company generating cash, or requiring annual investment?

So - as an ongoing enterprise - Spurs are doing very well - relative to other sporting franchises, and that is driving Levy's valuation of the club.


But, this is also a problem. Spurs are doing "too well". For many investors, they want to buy a business (or sports franchise) when the value is low, not high. That allows the new owner to come in with new investment and quickly build up the value of the investment - see Chelsea (twice), Newcastle, and Man City for examples of clubs that were purchased at a discount, relative to their current value. Spurs are being offered at a premium - not a discount. So, it's harder to find an investor willing to match Levy's price - knowing that future growth is already priced into Levy's value of the club. There is not much room for a new owner to see his/her investment jump.

For Levy to get his valuation, he needs an investor who looks at Spurs as a vanity project - not strictly a financial investment. Someone who wants to be in the game, be in London, and be the face of the club, and for whom money is no object. We are beyond the ability for a pure financial investor to come in at Levy's price.

Not sure I’m aligned on the ‘vanity project’ angle. As our financial fortunes are on a clear upward trajectory. By no means are we at a point where the club is ‘too expensive’.

It doesn’t take a fiscal genius to see that our compound growth is strong and steady, built on a scalable foundation. Now is an excellent time to invest in what could become a revenue juggernaut, if investment is made to lift the playing squad to compete (or even outcompete) the richest clubs in Europe.

I see a Sports Media investment that has nothing but upside. The scope of the upside though is contingent on a fundamental understanding that success on the field equates to increased brand awareness, which translates to greater, bigger, sustained global fan (customer) engagement and prolonged CLV that are reliably harvested for profit over decades. Such is the longterm value of highly engaged “fandom.”

 

[Tucker]

Fattening up the pig.

While I think there’s a degree of that at play, I don’t think it’s the sole reason our wage budget has decreased. We’ve shed a lot of high earners in the last 18 months - 2 years. Lloris, Kane, Moura, Lamela, Alderweireld. They’d all been here ages, and all had contract extensions during their time here. The likes of Moura and Lamela while not star players would have been on a pretty fair whack probably, especially with Moura having been at money bags PSG. The likes of Kane, Toby and Lloris were all key players, and likely top earners at the club.

With the exception of Kane, all of these players had reached the end of their usefulness here. They weren’t moved on to cut the wage budget. Neither was Kane, but that’s a different story.

We have definitely pivoted back to buying young talent this last two summers as well. So while I’d agree that the club hasn’t been willing to really push the boat out to take us up a level, I’m not entirely sure it’s all down to simply fattening the club up for a sale. I’m not really sure the owners price would be considerably different now than it would have been when we had all those high earners still on the books. The appeal of owning Spurs is the stadium, the events it can host, and the prestige of owning a big Premier League club. Ideally a club in the champions league. If a new owner wanted to maximise profits, then they’d be perfectly capable of slashing the wage bill themselves.

One aspect that I think people overlook though is the FPP potential the club has, and that might be what’s constraining the wage bill. Right now we have a tonne of wiggle room, someone could come in and really go for it in the transfer market without being constrained in the same way as Newcastle have been for example. If all this talk of Middle Eastern investors is for real, they will want us to be able to be active in the transfer market and really put their stamp on the club from the word go. So that’s probably a bigger factor in the club keeping the wages low, and buying young players in the last few windows than any concept of “fattening the pig.”

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

It doesn’t take a fiscal genius to see that our compound growth is strong and steady, built on a scalable foundation. Now is an excellent time to invest in what could become a revenue juggernaut, if investment is made to lift the playing squad to compete (or even outcompete) the richest clubs in Europe.

Where is the future revenue growth? Levy is already pricing Spurs as the most valuable PL franchise. That factors in the foreseeable revenue growth based on current trajectory.

To see a significant jump in revenue, would require significant investment - in both the squad itself, but then in all the development around the stadium.

And - Levy knows that, and has factored that growth into his valuation...

Compare that to when Abramovich bought Chelsea, when Clearlake bought Chelsea, when Abu Dhabi bought City, or when Saudi bought Newcastle. Those clubs were all sold while undervalued. That is how billionaires become billionaires - and keep their money.

 

[SpursSince1980]

Where is the future revenue growth? Levy is already pricing Spurs as the most valuable PL franchise. That factors in the foreseeable revenue growth based on current trajectory.

To see a significant jump in revenue, would require significant investment - in both the squad itself, but then in all the development around the stadium.

And - Levy knows that, and has factored that growth into his valuation...

Compare that to when Abramovich bought Chelsea, when Clearlake bought Chelsea, when Abu Dhabi bought City, or when Saudi bought Newcastle. Those clubs were all sold while undervalued. That is how billionaires become billionaires - and keep their money.

I totally see what you’re saying. And yes, of course the examples you share are valid. But that doesn’t mean we have been valued out of reach. It has to be a group that is thinking long term value (10 to 15 years). They would perceive Tottenham as a ‘blue chip’ stock. Established. Secure. Already highly valued, with an opportunity to see that value increase by 5 to 10% YoY. So, they would not be in it for the short haul.

Investment in the on field resources and off field commercial development are again long term projects that would bear fruit… significantly… but it would take time.

I would be on the lookout for that type of investment. I’d be a lot more worried about asset stripping investors. And as for Billionaire playthings… we all know that can be highly volatile.

Anyhoozle. I think most fans at this stage simply want to see some sort of change in the way we are run. Sadly, the key holder is hell bent on having his cake and eating it too.

 

[soflapaul]

Not sure I’m aligned on the ‘vanity project’ angle. As our financial fortunes are on a clear upward trajectory. By no means are we at a point where the club is ‘too expensive’.

It doesn’t take a fiscal genius to see that our compound growth is strong and steady, built on a scalable foundation. Now is an excellent time to invest in what could become a revenue juggernaut, if investment is made to lift the playing squad to compete (or even outcompete) the richest clubs in Europe.

I see a Sports Media investment that has nothing but upside. The scope of the upside though is contingent on a fundamental understanding that success on the field equates to increased brand awareness, which translates to greater, bigger, sustained global fan (customer) engagement and prolonged CLV that are reliably harvested for profit over decades. Such is the longterm value of highly engaged “fandom.”

Not sure if the compound growth is sistainable. The stadium and team can might provide incremental gains but the stadium is hamstru g by the pwrnissable number of attractive events and the TV money is likely the lions share of the team income. Onions really I would defer to others though if this Pic is incomplete

 

[bubble07]

Isn't our wage to turnover revenue the lowest in the league? What's the point of such high turnover if it's not to spend it on wages for better players??

And there was talk Levy wants to reduce this further. It's like he jerks off to the numbers

 

[SirHarryHotspur]

What evidence is there that a lower wage bill makes Spurs a more attractive proposition to purchase , nobody seemed to worry about the Chelsea wage bill when they were up for sale and had several interested buyers at £3 billion or whatever the price was plus a promised a new stadium which would cost another £2 billion on top.
If Levy/ENIC have overvalued the club then they are here for the foreseeable.

 

[spursfan77]

Trust me I know enough about agents to 100% say if we jumped to paying elite level wages we'd be having more phone calls and conversations regarding elite level players instigated by them.

There is one such player(sort of) that we have been enquiring about right now that I have disclosed back of house, and from actual 1 to 1 knowledge from his agent the main stumbling block will be the players salary he's currently on.

Plus the amount of agency fees we refuse to pay. It’s bizarre though because 10/15 years ago we one of the highest payers of agent fees in the league on a regular basis.

 

[spursfan77]

What evidence is there that a lower wage bill makes Spurs a more attractive proposition to purchase , nobody seemed to worry about the Chelsea wage bill when they were up for sale and had several interested buyers at £3 billion or whatever the price was plus a promised a new stadium which would cost another £2 billion on top.
If Levy/ENIC have overvalued the club then they are here for the foreseeable.

I agree. It’s why I don’t think we are even for sale. They want someone to pay for the capital projects that isn’t them and they want it on their terms.

 

[sidford]

What evidence is there that a lower wage bill makes Spurs a more attractive proposition to purchase , nobody seemed to worry about the Chelsea wage bill when they were up for sale and had several interested buyers at £3 billion or whatever the price was plus a promised a new stadium which would cost another £2 billion on top.
If Levy/ENIC have overvalued the club then they are here for the foreseeable.

Think of it like any other business, we are mainly profitable and it's largely because of our wages. By keeping them low as a % of turnover it shows any potential buyer than you can "compete" with such a low level of wages compared to others. (Obviously put in compete in inverted commas for a reason). Wages are the biggest expense for football clubs so the most important aspect to focus on.
Chelsea were mentioned and look what their owners have had to pump in because of their spending, our model is completely different where we are completely self sufficient.
It also helps any potential sport washer as it shows them that there is a potential for a big outlay on players and still be within FFP percentages.

 

[Albertbarich]

Plus the amount of agency fees we refuse to pay. It’s bizarre though because 10/15 years ago we one of the highest payers of agent fees in the league on a regular basis.

At the end of the day we’re either unable or unwilling to go beyond where we are.

Levy , the club and those that believe in him can offer as many reasons as they want but the fact is we don’t do what’s needed to really compete.

If you’re happy challenging for fourth whilst we build nice property and announce lots of nice deals with corporate brands then Levy is your man but I don’t think he has any interest in putting the club any higher than that if it means it costs the club money. We have hit our ceiling.

Meanwhile he is building up their investment ready for when he eventually gets the offer he wants but I suspect that offer would have to probably make him personally a billionaire and it’s totally unrealistic. Unless of course it includes hotels and property. Paid for of course with the clubs money.

We’re in purgatory as he is going nowhere and we don’t have a fan base that would make his life hell over such a complicated issue. It isn’t just that he is awful because as I said he wants fourth which is no easy achievement, but when you look beyond the surface he is not a good owner in so many way but because he is so smart off the pitch I can see why people like him.

I hate what he has done to this club but h also hate what modern football is.

 

[Gb160]

Yeah because they weren't in our position to start with. It's been this way for a few years now and of course that is down to levy and he deserves credit for that, but there is an awful lot of room for us to increase the wage budget if we wished to do so, and the only reason we don't is because we choose not to. In fact if anything it's reducing compared to our income.

I was reading about the founder of IKEA. Even when he was a billionaire he used to put off getting his hair cut until he was visiting a developing country where it was ridiculously cheap.
Levy reminds me of that bloke...he never adjusted his life to his wealth.

 

[McFlash]

Ange clearly rates Son and Johnson, even if fans think they aren't good enough, so there's probably a huge disparity in the level of priority that Ange gave to signing a top quality winger compared to what our fanbase thinks there should have been.

Guesswork.