the UFC thread

[Davo99]

So many low blows tonight.

Green vs Vannata was some fight.

 

[Davo99]

Boom! Just got 9/1 on Maia via submission. Never doubt a Brazilian jujitsu expert.

Just need Edman to win his fight to get a boxing/ufc combined 8 fold in as well.

5 boxers, including Cheeseman, from fight camp thrown in with Emmers, Luque and Shahbazyan.

 

[Davo99]

Shahbazyan loses by TKO. 8 fold fucked in the last fight of the night. No cash out option either.

 

[fatpiranha]

My night depends on an interpretation of SPIN's rules. I either won a bunch in the 1st fight on the card (the draw) or the bet is voided .

The last 2 fights cost me but I had done pretty well up until then with Luque's KO win and a late bet I put on Martinez to win by KO (which I forgot to post). I tried to get a bet on Green after Rnd 1, like I said I would in this thread, but failed .

I'm either up a tenner or up about £250 depending on the outcome of the rule interpretation . My biggest bets were on Borg, Perez, and Holland and all those fights were cancelled.

 

[fatpiranha]

Shahbazyan loses by TKO. 8 fold fucked in the last fight of the night. No cash out option either.

Unlucky . I fancied Shahbazyan to get it done in the 1st but really didn't like his chances if he didn't. I don't like betting the chalk which is why I do mostly prop bets. The fight either goes the way I expect or I lose. That way I only need a couple of winning bets to make a profit.

 

[fatpiranha]

Weird event .

Looking at some stuff online a lot of people had an absolute shocker.

My 4-fold had 4 non-runners
My 5-fold lost £44
Durden is either void or won me £215 depending on whether SPIN try to wriggle out of a loophole in their rules . I'll count it as void here.
I lost £40.50 on Vannata vs Green
Won £198 on Luque
Lost £144 on Calderwood
Lost £126 on Shahbazyan

Total = -£156.50

I did do 5 other bets on the night. 1 small win, 3 small losses, and a decent £213 win on Martinez to KO Sainz. Pretty much a break even night unless SPIN rule in my favour .

I'm slightly annoyed that JoJo made the horrible decision to hang around on the mat with a BJJ black belt and got arm barred . I'm not bothered that I couldn't get my in-running bet on Green on after Rnd 1. I love betting in-running on football but for these MMA events there's probably only one guy in the office and getting a bet on during a fight is always a lottery.

Some great fights to watch though. Lando vs Green could be up for a trilogy. I thought I was going to cash my prop bet on Green to win in Rnd 3 as Lando was in all sorts of trouble but Green eased off (probably because of his broken hand) and cruised to a decision win.

Luque made mincemeat out of Randy Brown but it really was a horrible stylistic match-up for Brown. I thought he'd get his leg eaten up and finished even earlier but I think Brown will surprise at good odds in the future.

Fair play to Brunson for derailing the 'Golden Boy' hype train. He fought very intelligently and stuck to his game plan. Edwin really is a 'Rnd 1 or bust' guy at this stage of his career. I'm fine with my bet to win in Rnd 1 but annoyed that I included him in my smaller accumulator. It didn't cost me but it was a bad bet . I don't think Brunson is suddenly good however. He's still a gatekeeper, and this time he did his job well, but that was all on Shahbazyan.

 

[fatpiranha]

Early 4-fold for UFC Vegas 6 - Rivera/Zallal/Dariush/Lewis all to win. £80 returns £342.08.

Rivera looks better than his record shows and his opponent hasn't fought anyone I've even heard of. Zalal should be a class above Barrett. Dariush is inconsistent but has been on a tear lately, He's far more skilled than 'Hot Sauce' who's very tough but just wears people down. Lewis hits as hard as anyone and Oleinik tends to lose to fighters who hit hard. Oleinik is a submission threat though, but only Cormier has ever submitted Lewis.

 

[EJWTartanSpur]

Yep ^ agree with most of that, I’ve taken a few events off, but I might put some bets down for try upcoming events

An early thought is that I really fancy JDS against Rozenstruik. If Overeem can out strike him for 14 mins 59 secs, then JDS, who has been solid recently, can beat him and should not be under dog.

Need to think more about it but I reckon OMalley is too much of a favourite against Vera

 

[fatpiranha]

Yep ^ agree with most of that, I’ve taken a few events off, but I might put some bets down for try upcoming events

An early thought is that I really fancy JDS against Rozenstruik. If Overeem can out strike him for 14 mins 59 secs, then JDS, who has been solid recently, can beat him and should not be under dog.

Need to think more about it but I reckon OMalley is too much of a favourite against Vera

My thoughts exactly. Rozenstruik always has that equaliser though but JDS is technically in a different league.

 

[fatpiranha]

Wow! Sporting Index ruled in my favour . They've apologised for their mistake and credited £215 to my account. They've also changed the rules on all their MMA 100 win markets to eliminate the issue in the future.

This is one of the reasons I prefer to bet with the spread companies. They are regulated by the FSA and in my experience they deal swiftly and fairly with any issues. So long as you are not just arbing they don't seem to care if you are winning or losing. Many bookmakers on the other hand just close winning accounts, or put ridiculously small limits on bets. They're also, in my experience, a pain in the arse when dealing with disputes.

Credit where it's due.

 

[fatpiranha]

Had an £87 double on Zallal and Munoz. Munoz is a wrestler who trains at Team Alpha Male so he should know what he is doing. His opponent Haqparast is a heavy handed prospect who had a lot of hype but has been inconsistent and lost against the only pure wrestler he has faced.

 

[fatpiranha]

Last bet on the early odds - a treble on Zallal/Dariush/Weidman £60 returns £215.54.

All my other bets will be on the props on the spread markets.

 

[fatpiranha]

Early 4-fold for UFC Vegas 6 - Rivera/Zallal/Dariush/Lewis all to win. £80 returns £342.08.

Rivera looks better than his record shows and his opponent hasn't fought anyone I've even heard of. Zalal should be a class above Barrett. Dariush is inconsistent but has been on a tear lately, He's far more skilled than 'Hot Sauce' who's very tough but just wears people down. Lewis hits as hard as anyone and Oleinik tends to lose to fighters who hit hard. Oleinik is a submission threat though, but only Cormier has ever submitted Lewis.

I decided I didn't like this bet and cashed out for an £8.73 loss . I just don't think that Rivera and Lewis represent value. My criteria for betting parlays is generally when I have a strong feeling that a fighter is going to win but have no idea how or when.

In the Lewis vs Oleinik fight it's fairly clear that Lewis will either win by KO or get subbed by the Boa Constrictor. Lewis isn't winning by sub and the fight isn't going to the judges, so why bet Lewis straight? A bad decision.

The other problem is that having watched some tape I no longer like Rivera. He showed in his loss to Giga that he's tough enough and an okay striker. I then watched a bit of his opponent and his striking is gash. Since then however I've watched a bit more and realised that Al Qaisa is a decent wrestler with a nasty guillotine, and Rivera can't defend take downs or get up if he gets taken down so I feel the value is on the underdog.

I've bet on Al Quaisi to win.

 

[fatpiranha]

I'm really looking forward to this card. So many fights that could go either way. Hats off to the matchmakers .

That's from a fan's perspective. From a betting perspective it could go badly wrong and it wouldn't be a surprise at all. I've gone for my usual collection of long shot props and hoping enough hit to show a profit .

I'm just going to list the ones I haven't posted yet. If anyone is interested I'll be happy to explain my reasoning. Also interested if any of you have had a bet on this card.

Oleinik to win Rnd 1 or 2 or by sub. Lewis Rnd 3.
Weidman to win Rnd 2 or 3 or by sub.
Stewart by KO. Pitolo Rnd 3.
Dariush by sub or decision or Rnd 2 or 3.
Stoliarenko by sub.
Sanchez by decision, Turman Rnd 3.
Haqparast Rnd 3.
Zalal by sub or Rnd 3.
Al Qaisi by sub.
Jaynes Rnd 1.
Starapoli by decision. Means by sub.

Some trades are quite large (by my standards at least ) while others are just little insurance bets.

 

[fatpiranha]

Had a small dabble on big underdog Buckley to win. Holland is rightly the favourite, and has an easy path to victory, but he is also extremely arrogant and has a low fight IQ. I can see him wanting to stand and bang with Holland - who hits very hard - rather than take him down and win safely on the ground. If that happens it's a pick 'em fight.

I seem to be on a lot of the dogs on this card. That's not because I expect many of them to cause the upset but because I feel the favourites are at too short a price.

 

[Davo99]

@fatpiranha any idea what channel the Rivera fight is on? BT Sports programme doesn’t start until midnight and I can’t find anything on ESPN for the first couple.

 

[Davo99]

Last bet on the early odds - a treble on Zallal/Dariush/Weidman £60 returns £215.54.

All my other bets will be on the props on the spread markets.

I’m on these three as well, thrown in with the main event not to go the distance.

Might do a few bets in between fights as well as I’ve had a busy week and haven’t had a chance to study properly and pick my bets in advance.

Good luck with your bets guys.

 

[yankspurs]

Happy to see Weidman back in the win column but damn. That was sad to see. Go out on top, Chris.

 

[yankspurs]

Derrick Lewis! I had no clue what he was doing first round playing Alexi's game after the initial flurry. Alexi almost had him submitted! But man. That was a QUICK 2nd round knockout.

And yet another all timer in the post fight interview

 

[yankspurs]

Stipe????

Hope DC’s eye is okay