Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,580
- 17,065
Opta gives us a 0.4% chance of Top 5 (UCL), a 2.7% chance of 6th-7th (probably Europa) and a 3.8% chance of 8th (probably Conference). All in all a 6.9% chance of getting Europe through the league assuming England secures the bonus spot and a Top 8 team wins both domestic cups, or about 14/1.
The Football Meets Data model gives us as 12% chance of winning the Europa League, or about 7/1.
Combining the two, we have:
12.4% to be in the Champions League - a very successful season
2.7% to be in the Europa League - no improvement from last year despite significant investment
3.7% to be in the Conference League - bad, and at best leaving us in stasis, although with some optimism after a very good end to the season.
81.2% chance to fail to qualify for any European competition. Very, very, very worrying to fail twice in three years. Highly significant implications for our ability to invest in the squad - fall in commercial appeal, huge fall in matchday and broadcasting revenues, and implications on UEFA payouts for the next ten years due to a reduction in coefficient. Continue to fall behind teams such as Newcastle and Aston Villa, likely to only be the 8th biggest club for spending capacity going forwards. Limited ability to attract ready-made players, especially with a squad too bloated for a mid-table side and multiple players likely to be unsatisfied with playing time, but needing to maintain depth for when we hopefully return to Europe in 2026/27.
The Football Meets Data model gives us as 12% chance of winning the Europa League, or about 7/1.
Combining the two, we have:
12.4% to be in the Champions League - a very successful season
2.7% to be in the Europa League - no improvement from last year despite significant investment
3.7% to be in the Conference League - bad, and at best leaving us in stasis, although with some optimism after a very good end to the season.
81.2% chance to fail to qualify for any European competition. Very, very, very worrying to fail twice in three years. Highly significant implications for our ability to invest in the squad - fall in commercial appeal, huge fall in matchday and broadcasting revenues, and implications on UEFA payouts for the next ten years due to a reduction in coefficient. Continue to fall behind teams such as Newcastle and Aston Villa, likely to only be the 8th biggest club for spending capacity going forwards. Limited ability to attract ready-made players, especially with a squad too bloated for a mid-table side and multiple players likely to be unsatisfied with playing time, but needing to maintain depth for when we hopefully return to Europe in 2026/27.
