The Race for CL Football - 24/25
- Thread starter BorjeSpurs
- Start date
Singaspur
Active Member
- Sep 21, 2005
- 191
- 187
Villa, in 8th, are currently 9 points ahead of us having played 1 game more (and with a much inferior GD) and juggling CL games. If we win our game in hand, we'd be 6 points behind them - and we play them GW 37! Surely our chances of catching them are comparable to our chances of winning Europa? According to Odds checker, we are 9/2 favourites to win Europa. (Frankly that sounds generous to me.)
I don't think we have any chance of getting 4th or even 5th to qualify for CL via the league. But getting European football next season (even if it is just Europa Conference League) is so important. So unless/until it becomes unrealistic to qualify for Europe via the league, I think we should basically give league and Europa League equal priority.
Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,580
- 17,065
It's not completely impossible, but it's a LOT more than a 3 game turnout. 5th place is currently getting about 1.7 points per game, and therefore dropping 1.3. From 11 points behind, that means another 8 or 9 consecutive wins to overtake them. That means e.g. we win every game from now until the end of April, including at both Anfield and Stamford Bridge, and then we'd be level on points needing to match others results in May. Combined with the 3 in a row we've already won it's an 11 or 12 game turnaround.
The other way to look at it is if we won 12 in a row at the start of next season, we'd likely be some distance clear at the top of the league.
I thought I was fairly level headed
Kingellesar
This is the way
- May 2, 2005
- 9,181
- 9,894
I think we will finish closer to 5th than we all thought but no chance of us catching or overtaking the teams in the hunt for CL, best bet I could see us 8th or 9th.
Stamford
Well-Known Member
- Sep 15, 2015
- 5,066
- 24,398
Only way for us to get champions league football is the Europa. It would require winning every league game and I just don't see that.
Would be happy to close out the season with some good form in the league, which would set us up well for next season. The opposite of last year when we finished poorly.
Just happy there is some optimism back
Would be happy to close out the season with some good form in the league, which would set us up well for next season. The opposite of last year when we finished poorly.
Just happy there is some optimism back
Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,580
- 17,065
This set of results would give us approximately a 50% chance of 5th on 64 points:
Man City H - Win
Bournemouth H - Win
Fulham A - Win
Chelsea A - Draw
Southampton H - Win
Wolves A - Win
Nottm Forest H - Win
Liverpool A - Lose
West Ham A - Win
Crystal Palace H - Win
Aston Villa A - Win
Brighton H - Win
Man City H - Win
Bournemouth H - Win
Fulham A - Win
Chelsea A - Draw
Southampton H - Win
Wolves A - Win
Nottm Forest H - Win
Liverpool A - Lose
West Ham A - Win
Crystal Palace H - Win
Aston Villa A - Win
Brighton H - Win
Last edited:
Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,580
- 17,065
Yep. Extremely, extremely unlikely. Europa is by far the better shout
npearl4spurs
Believing Member
- Sep 9, 2014
- 5,209
- 14,769
Impspur1
Well-Known Member
- May 8, 2014
- 4,569
- 10,827
Yeah it ain’t happening
Westmorlandspur
Well-Known Member
- Feb 1, 2013
- 4,261
- 7,014
Win 10 out of 12. Seriously?
I’ll take 10th and the Europa . Lot easier than beating all those teams.
$hoguN
Well-Known Member
- Jul 25, 2005
- 28,158
- 39,576
Do you sniff a lot of glue or industrial solvents?
hughy
I'm SUPER cereal.
- Nov 18, 2007
- 33,420
- 62,708
I think considering our injuries 10th would be a semi-respectable finish (from our expectations in early Feb, as opposed to our expectations in August). Even then I think we'd be relying on two of Fulham, Brentford, Brighton and Bournemouth, who don't have European football as a distraction, to more or less capitulate.
Let's be honest, any thing other than lifting the Europa League means this season has been an unmitigated disaster.
Not sure about disaster. We have got some really promising young players coming through now. I feel positive about that.
You do know it wasn’t me that posted that scenario?
Given the choice I’d obviously take EL win and finishing say 12th over not winning the EL and finishing 5th and getting CL that way,
But I do think it’s important that we somehow get European football of some sort for next season.
Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,580
- 17,065
It's something like this maybe to get Conference League. I agree it's beyond crucial for us to be in Europe. But it's still a really uphill task, we were simply too bad for too long.
Man City H - Win
Bournemouth H - Win
Fulham A - Draw
Chelsea A - Lose
Southampton H - Win
Wolves A - Win
Nottm Forest H - Win
Liverpool A - Lose
West Ham A - Win
Crystal Palace H - Win
Aston Villa A - Draw
Brighton H - Win
