Read this and understand (you know who you are)

[rez9000]

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/j575a7

With the kind permission of Ewan Roberts who I tweeted this morning to ask if he would agree to my putting this on here for you all to read. Those of you who should have got a grip long before now may particularly benefit:

Many people have said that all AVB had to do to succeed was continue the good work done by Redknapp and build upon healthy foundations. But that’s just not the case. Totally ignoring the players we’ve lost for a moment, AVB’s having to repair rotten foundations, re-build the soul of the team, boost confidence and morale, get a losing team back to winning ways.

Our form now is a hangover from our form at the end of last season. AVB was given a team that was rock bottom in so many respects. We may have finished fourth, but that did not adequately represent just how truly awful we’d been in 2012.

If you take the second half of our season – the second set of 19 games – we won just seven matches. A win percentage of just 36%...and three of those wins (none of which were convincing) came in our final four games. If the league existed just over that period of time we’d have been in 9th position, behind Wigan, Fulham, Everton and the usual suspects.

Those figures include an additional game for us compared to all the other sides (the postponed Everton match @ WHL, because of the riots). If those three points are discounted, we drop to 11th place.

There’s been lots of people saying “mid-table here we come” and such, well mid-table’s been beckoning for a while. We’ve had the form of a mid-table side for 5 months prior to AVB’s arrival. This isn’t his fault, our poor early season form isn’t exclusively of his doing.

If you look at the nine game run from the 5-2 loss at the Emirates in February until the 1-0 loss to QPR in April – a period that represents almost a quarter of the season – we were 19th in the form guide. Played 9, won 1, drew 3, lost 5. 6 points from a possible 27. Goals scored = 9, goals conceded = 14. 0.67 ppg. Only Wolves were worse off. Only two sides (Wolves and Norwich) conceded more goals.

Five teams conceded five goals twice or more in a single game in the league last year, and we were one of them. Norwich, QPR, Bolton and ourselves conceded five goals twice, Wolves conceded five goals three times. Two of the five teams are now in the Championship.

We’ve been crap for a while. Not only is AVB having to prepare for life after King, Modric and van der Vaart, he’s also having to turn around the fortunes of a club that has been in a six month slump. Frankly, given the form of the side it’s easy to see why AVB is happy to undertake wholesale changes to the squad. And it’s also clear that it will take time for AVB to mend a broken team. And that's what AVB inherited: a broken team, not a title-challenger.

 

[StartingPrice]

Won't dent the 'Arry 'agiography

 

[DEFchenkOE]

Let's send this to Mr Levy incase the bad form continues and he gets an itchy finger.

 

[ultimateloner]

The article assumes that the current form (start of this season) is a continuation of the trend from 2nd half of last season.
For this to be coherent the reason behind this should be something related to the personnel/way we've been playing, and which is unrelated to HR because he's been gone for long enough now.
Can someone suggest reasons? i can't see what they should be, something fundemental to the team?

 

[noahrobert]

Totally agree with his post, AVB has got his work cut out and them some.
Harry did a job job in a stewardship sense, but once he was leaving or thought to be, the team was deflated, coinciding at a time when the team needed him most. The City game was crucial, we lost and the slim hope of the title was gone. The extra desire, gone. The Arse game just cemented it. Harry deserted us on spirit when spirit was needed, a pick me up, team talk, fight, spirit, guts, diligence.
The identity of the team was lost, AVB must now create his own, not take custodianship, create his own identity. We need to give him time. He will rebuild the team, create morale and enthusiasm, I believe in him.

 

[tommyt]

Same players ultimateloner, and the new ones need time to adapt as they've had little preparation.

Plus, we've been really unlucky. With a bit of luck we would be sitting on at least 5 points by now.

I think Parker, King and Modric are being massively missed atm.

 

[ultimateloner]

I don't buy this argument tommyt.
We've underperformed for 6 mths when all of the 'core' players of Parker/Modric/VdV/King etc were all present. So this can't explain the slump; it may explain why we aren't doing well now.
Unless there is something thorny that goes through from last season to now, which i hope someone could tell me, i can't see how the argument flies.

 

[StartingPrice]

The article assumes that the current form (start of this season) is a continuation of the trend from 2nd half of last season.
For this to be coherent the reason behind this should be something related to the personnel/way we've been playing, and which is unrelated to HR because he's been gone for long enough now.
Can someone suggest reasons? i can't see what they should be, something fundemental to the team?

Same players ultimateloner, and the new ones need time to adapt as they've had little preparation.

Plus, we've been really unlucky. With a bit of luck we would be sitting on at least 5 points by now.

I think Parker, King and Modric are being massively missed atm.

And AVB said he wanted to play 4-3-3 but couldn't because the personnel were unprepared/unsuited to it and so he would stick to a formation they were more familiar with

 

[sloth]

I don't quite agree.

I do agree with the sentiment that AVB needs to be given a chance, but I think if he had the team that Harry had in the run-in last season we'd have done better in the first three games. For me the reason we're doing poorly (and tbh it's only against West Brom and Norwich that we've underperformed) is not that we're suffering a hangover from last season, but because we're a scratch team, playing against well-organised, direct sides with limited ambition. Even with a well oiled side they can be hard to break down and particularly defend against. We will improve as the team starts to gel, we, the fans, just need to give them time. There is a worrying structural issue in that we're lacking creativity/intelligence/a puppet-master in CM, but we're still better or equal to 14 or 15 of the other sides, and maybe even more than that, if AVB can get us playing as a team we'll be grand, it just might happen a bit late to do much this season.

 

[dooey123]

Well said Rez. It baffles me how people forget how bad we were at times towards the end of last year especially when playing a defensive team and it was those times where it was obvious Harry didn't know how to go about fixing it. The fact is there is no guarantee that whatever manager had come in to take over from him would be an immediate success and that applies to Mourinho, Hiddink, Guardiola or whoever.

 

[Dan Yeats]

Saw that this morning in my permanent #thfc search on Flipboard. Hit retweet instantly.

 

[Wheeler Dealer]

Even during our black period under Redknapp, we still looked a lot more fluid attacking unit than we currently do. We appear to be playing with the hand brake on at the moment and trying to surpress players of attacking intent is not healthy. We need to take the shackles off at home and go back to the swashbuckling ways of last year.​

 

[sloth]

Even during our black period under Redknapp, we still looked a lot more fluid attacking unit than we currently do. We appear to be playing with the hand brake on at the moment and trying to surpress players of attacking intent is not healthy. We need to take the shackles off at home and go back to the swashbuckling ways of last year.

Apart from the fact that I don't agree that "even during our black period under Redknapp, we still looked a lot more fluid attacking unit than we currently do", Norwich at home last season anyone?

We should not forget that under Redknapp we often had Modric pulling the strings; any side losing its most valuable player, particularly one whose role is to be the heartbeat is going to take time to adjust. Also, don't you think the fact that we've a fair few new players to integrate means fluency will take a while to be found? Add to that that he's trying to implement a new way of playing, and one which is a very different philosophy to that which Redknapp followed, and I think we can cut the guy some slack, no?

The time to judge AVB, imo, is at the end of the season surely? And then it should be pon how we perform second half of the season rather than finishing position. But if you want to be more extreme than that, and not entirely fair, then at the worse he should have until January. I know you're probably not judging now, just expressing concern - as I have in other threads - but surely we can all agree that three games is not a lot to go on? Not forgetting of course that our performance away to Newcastle was probably superior to our show last year at the same ground, albeit with a more disappointing result.

 

[rez9000]

Even during our black period under Redknapp, we still looked a lot more fluid attacking unit than we currently do. We appear to be playing with the hand brake on at the moment and trying to surpress players of attacking intent is not healthy. We need to take the shackles off at home and go back to the swashbuckling ways of last year.

But that doesn't invalidate what the article says.

Assuming that AVB is changing the system of play, then currently the team won't play that fluidly because they won't be used to the system yet..

So, even if we did play fluidly under Redknapp, that doesn't mean that because we're not playing fluidly under AVB that AVB hasn't inherited a demoralised or underperforming side.

 

[cwhite02]

Bored with this AVB talk already. Would like him just to be able to get on with his job. Good luck to him. We will find out what he's made of in the next month or two.

COYS

 

[rez9000]

Bored with this AVB talk already. Would like him just to be able to get on with his job. Good luck to him. We will find out what he's made of in the next month or two.

COYS

This is exactly the attitude we should all have.

Sadly, not only do we have to witness the press laying into the manager, but we're rivalling them in how much we're shredding him ourselves.

I fear the only way to actually penetrate the monumentally dense skulls of some of our own fans (like the ones who think they can "solve the problems" of AVB's managership) and get them to support the club is by posting stuff like this in the hope that they'll realise where their priorities should be.

 

[HappySpur]

Maybe harsher on the squad than I would be, but I think the decline started in February of 2011 and we had one winning streak that hid the frailties.

And the issue wasn't Harry, Levy or the players. Time had just caught up to an antiquated tactical system. Our basic setup has been based on a 4-4-2 with speed on the wings, two deep CM's and two forwards for a long time. But that 4-4-2, while fun back when Ramos was using it at Seville or even when Jol was using it here, was on it's last legs even then. The age of the 5 man midfield was already taking over then and the press became common soon after. The fact that Harry got VDV and used him as a second striker was pretty smart. It meant he could get a player as a 5th midfielder in a rigid system that can be overrun by the newer tactics that have 5 in the midfield. As we get further away from the tragedy of last year, its easier to see that what Harry was able to do with the structure in place (getting 4th, 5th and 4th) was actually outstanding. He's a good coach.

But he isn't the guy you want to rebuild the system from the ground floor up. AVB's system is on the cutting edge of today's tactics. That's good but it will take time. We are making a massive change here.

Look at Dortmund. Klopp introduced the press there, via a 4231, and while we see them as a very successful, he had two campaigns of 6th and 5th before he won the title. It took him time to get the system working and adjust the squad and I think the only players still significant by his first trophy from the team he inherited that was 13th were Wiedenfeller, Kehl (who was injured that first title but played all of last season) and Kuba. Sahin had been on loan and he brought him back into the fold. And Hummels had 10 games as a loanee in 07-08. He changed 9 players in the outfield over those 3 years via the academy or purchase (as Kuba went from starter to more of a sub). Subotic and Hummels were his first signings, but Bender, Kagawa, Barrios, etc came in the second window. It's hard to imagine but he actually got 6th with Tinga, Kringe, Owomoyela, Valdez and Hajnal. Wow! We have much more talent than that 07-08 Dormund side, but we can expect that there will continue to be changes as AVB tweaks.

 

[rez9000]

Maybe harsher on the squad than I would be, but I think the decline started in February of 2011 and we had one winning streak that hid the frailties.

And the issue wasn't Harry, Levy or the players. Time had just caught up to an antiquated tactical system. Our basic setup has been based on a 4-4-2 with speed on the wings, two deep CM's and two forwards. It seems to me that Comolli might have been building it for Ramos from the minute he took over. But that 4-4-2, while fun back when Ramos was using it at Seville or even when Jol was using it here, was on it's last legs even then. The age of the 5 man midfield was already taking over then and the press became common soon after. The fact that Harry got VDV and used him as a second striker was pretty smart. It meant he could get a player as a 5th midfielder in a rigid system that can be overrun by the newer tactics that have 5 in the midfield. As we get further away from the tragedy of last year, its easier to see that what Harry was able to do with the structure in place (getting 4th, 5th and 4th) was actually outstanding. He's a good coach.

But he isn't the guy you want to rebuild the system from the ground floor up. AVB's system is on the cutting edge of today's tactics. That's good but it will take time. We are making a massive change here.

Look at Dortmund. Klopp introduced the press there, via a 4231, and while we see them as a very successful, he had two campaigns of 6th and 5th before he won the title. It took him time to get the system working and adjust the squad and I think the only players still significant by his first trophy from the team he inherited that was 13th were Wiedenfeller, Kehl (who was injured that first title but played all of last season) and Kuba. Sahin had been on loan and he brought him back into the fold. And Hummels had 10 games as a loanee in 07-08. He changed 9 players in the outfield over those 3 years via the academy of purchase (as Kuba went from starter to more of a sub). We have much more talent than that 07-08 Dormund side, but we can expect that there will continue to be changes as AVB tweaks.

Top notch!

 

[Stavrogin]

Bored with this AVB talk already. Would like him just to be able to get on with his job. Good luck to him. We will find out what he's made of in the next month or two.
COYS

Aye. For each negative remark we get 5 essays defending AVB. It's as if the Politburo are running the Nettlesworth newt watching society. Keep your voices down, you're scaring the newts...

 

[Bus-Conductor]

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/j575a7

With the kind permission of Ewan Roberts who I tweeted this morning to ask if he would agree to my putting this on here for you all to read. Those of you who should have got a grip long before now may particularly benefit:

Many people have said that all AVB had to do to succeed was continue the good work done by Redknapp and build upon healthy foundations. But that’s just not the case. Totally ignoring the players we’ve lost for a moment, AVB’s having to repair rotten foundations, re-build the soul of the team, boost confidence and morale, get a losing team back to winning ways.

Our form now is a hangover from our form at the end of last season. AVB was given a team that was rock bottom in so many respects. We may have finished fourth, but that did not adequately represent just how truly awful we’d been in 2012.

If you take the second half of our season – the second set of 19 games – we won just seven matches. A win percentage of just 36%...and three of those wins (none of which were convincing) came in our final four games. If the league existed just over that period of time we’d have been in 9th position, behind Wigan, Fulham, Everton and the usual suspects.

Those figures include an additional game for us compared to all the other sides (the postponed Everton match @ WHL, because of the riots). If those three points are discounted, we drop to 11th place.

There’s been lots of people saying “mid-table here we come” and such, well mid-table’s been beckoning for a while. We’ve had the form of a mid-table side for 5 months prior to AVB’s arrival. This isn’t his fault, our poor early season form isn’t exclusively of his doing.

If you look at the nine game run from the 5-2 loss at the Emirates in February until the 1-0 loss to QPR in April – a period that represents almost a quarter of the season – we were 19th in the form guide. Played 9, won 1, drew 3, lost 5. 6 points from a possible 27. Goals scored = 9, goals conceded = 14. 0.67 ppg. Only Wolves were worse off. Only two sides (Wolves and Norwich) conceded more goals.

Five teams conceded five goals twice or more in a single game in the league last year, and we were one of them. Norwich, QPR, Bolton and ourselves conceded five goals twice, Wolves conceded five goals three times. Two of the five teams are now in the Championship.

We’ve been crap for a while. Not only is AVB having to prepare for life after King, Modric and van der Vaart, he’s also having to turn around the fortunes of a club that has been in a six month slump. Frankly, given the form of the side it’s easy to see why AVB is happy to undertake wholesale changes to the squad. And it’s also clear that it will take time for AVB to mend a broken team. And that's what AVB inherited: a broken team, not a title-challenger.

A very, very salient point.
We also conceded five in the FA Cup semi to Chelsea during this period.