Race for The Top 4

jenko

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So if city were to go on and win the UCL this season, then is it possible that 6th place in the league would qualify. Or would the champions position got to the losing finalist. But what if thats another English team? This will go on and on.... although they obviously have no moral right to any trophies this season imo.
 

Adam456

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So if city were to go on and win the UCL this season, then is it possible that 6th place in the league would qualify. Or would the champions position got to the losing finalist. But what if thats another English team? This will go on and on.... although they obviously have no moral right to any trophies this season imo.
No because that 'extra place' scenario only happens when the winner of the CL finishes outside the top 4, which is highly unlikely if it were Citeh. And if it did then they'd have their 4 qualifiers from the EPL anyway. The question of how to allocate the 'extra' winner's place would be for UEFA. I think it would go to another association with highest coefficient without 4 clubs e.g. Italy? or closest to next 'band' or Fair Play award - that sort of thing
 

Spartanspurs

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So if city were to go on and win the UCL this season, then is it possible that 6th place in the league would qualify. Or would the champions position got to the losing finalist. But what if thats another English team? This will go on and on.... although they obviously have no moral right to any trophies this season imo.
I'd assume no-one would get it. Liverpool won it last year and because they qualified through the league too the extra place just drops to the qualifying rounds I believe.
 

Adam456

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I'd assume no-one would get it. Liverpool won it last year and because they qualified through the league too the extra place just drops to the qualifying rounds I believe.
Yes indeed. If you think about it, the winner's place isn't allocated every year so there is already a process in place
 

Everlasting Seconds

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I’m sure I read somewhere that the maximum points deduction is 9 points. I don’t think they will push for relegation, because if they do then City will be open to the EFL FFP rules, which are different to the Premier League’s and even more tight I think.

It is different to Calciopoli, that was a whole load of teams trying to deceive the game.
I don't think that 9 points rule applies. That's a rule for cases of clubs going into administration, which ManCity clearly won't be (for a while).
I wonder if the cap for FFP breaches is 12 points, which surely shitty must be "worthy" of.
 
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JCRD

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The weirdest argument of all in this is that UEFA are judge and jury. That’s literally what happens in every other sport. A ruling body makes the laws and dishes out the punishment. In fact it’s what happens in every walk of life. An outside body only ever gets involved when someone appeals.
I dont think it is a weird argument. Surely impartiality and independence is key to a ruling? I know it happens elsewhere but doesnt really feel right and Man City are right in appealing (I would expect us to do the same although lets face it City are guilty).

How do you maintain objectivity when ruling something in that case when youre not totally independent and impartial.
 

Matecheck

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I dont think it is a weird argument. Surely impartiality and independence is key to a ruling? I know it happens elsewhere but doesnt really feel right and Man City are right in appealing (I would expect us to do the same although lets face it City are guilty).

How do you maintain objectivity when ruling something in that case when youre not totally independent and impartial.

If you open a club (say, a golf club) and have a set of rules for, say, behaviour on the green and in the club house, and one of your members breaks those rules, you don't need some impartial body to judge and penalise the infraction(s). That member either abides by the rules, breaks the rules and accepts the punishment handed down, or leaves the club.
 

JCRD

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If you open a club (say, a golf club) and have a set of rules for, say, behaviour on the green and in the club house, and one of your members breaks those rules, you don't need some impartial body to judge and penalise the infraction(s). That member either abides by the rules, breaks the rules and accepts the punishment handed down, or leaves the club.
You dont need an impartial body to judge and penalise but there is an issue around impartiality and objectivity and that is my point.

Isnt that why for example when we had the Rudiger incident we allowed others to also review the information and evidence at hand to add weight to whatever decision we arrived at? Perhaps its about perception.

Im not arguing that theyre not guilty, I guess im playign devils advocate and if we were int hat psotion or if I were in that position of being accused of something id certainly want it independely adjudicated.
 

Johnny J

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Ive been reading more and more about this... we all now int he spirit of things that Man City have been funded but technically the 'sponsors' and Man City are two separate entities no?

Also I do find it strange that there has been no independent judge and jury so to speak rather than being both that Uefa have been in this situation.

I do think Man City are guilty we all know it.
Yes, technically they are separate entities, but that doesn't mean they haven't broken the rules.

If getting round the rules were that simple, every moneybags club would simply set up a shell company and fund via that.
 

Thenewcat

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Yes, technically they are separate entities, but that doesn't mean they haven't broken the rules.

If getting round the rules were that simple, every moneybags club would simply set up a shell company and fund via that.
Quite. It seems they weren’t even clever enough to use the companies they had. We all knew Etihad paid over the odds for the sponsorship (funny that) but from I read the money didn’t even come from the airline - it was funded directly by the Maktoums. They could have argued their case if they had just got the airline to pay over the odds
 

Cochise

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1 point in it. Yes yes, Chelsea have a game in hand, but now they can feel our breath on the back of their neck's and they have a counter attacking UTD to play Monday. Though without Rashford, UTD are significantly less of a goal threat.
 

C0YS

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Me too. I've created an application which calculates what is and isn't possible each gameweek (example). It also works out when a team can't finish in a particular position (which was obviously ridiculously early for Liverpool this season), 538 said that they were safe from relegation in one week but I could still get them down to 19th.

They either need to clarify what "<1%" and "-" mean (I'd assume that the former is for when there's still a chance, no matter how small, of that thing happening and the latter means it's mathematically impossible) or their model is flawed.

I have no idea about the >1 percentages but the fact that I could get Liverpool lower than they could doesn't fill me with confidence for the rest of their results.
tbf, I actually get that and I'm not confused by the <1%. This isn't a basic predictor but a complex algorithm based on many variables. So I think the less than x percent is fine. I do, however, believe that the model is flawed for two reasons. Firstly, it fails to take into account the flow of the game, namely when a team chooses to cling on, when one chooses to attack etc. meaning statistical data does not effectively paint the narrative of the game. And secondly, it doesn't really effectively measure the power of momentum, or the risk of a collapse. Football changes quickly and form can change quite rapidly based on confidence and pressure.

For example I think they have overestimated Chelsea's chances of making the top 4 and seriously underestimated Sheffield Utd's chances of making the top 4 (at less than 5%). I know SU have a tough run coming up but momentum momentum momentum. Ultimately, for Chelsea to fail to qualify all that needs to happen is they need to continue recent form and have one team bellow them in the top 10 get a run together. Statistically I don't see this as being that unlikely. Similarly things like Man city having a 95% chance of finishing 2nd are just way to inflated. Football is too random to model accurately though.
 

maltahotspur

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I think it is still very much an open race for top four. However since Jose took over we have made huge strides forward. Here is how the table looked when he took over from MoPo (to whom I have the utmost respect) and the table now:

November 20, 2019

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Liverpool1211101834
2Leicester City128222126
3Chelsea128221026
4Man City128132225
5Sheffield Utd12453417
6Arsenal12453-217
7Man Utd12444416
8Wolves12372116
9Bournemouth12444016
10Burnley12435-115
11Brighton12435-215
12Crystal Palace12435-615
13Newcastle12435-715
14Tottenham12354114
15Everton12426-514
16West Ham12345-613
17Aston Villa12327-311
18Watford12156-158
19Southampton12228-188
20Norwich12219-177


February 17, 2020

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Liverpool2625104676
2Man City2516363651
3Leicester City2615562850
4Chelsea251258941
5Tottenham261178940
6Sheffield Utd261097439
7Wolves268126336
8Everton2610610-436
9Man Utd25988735
10Arsenal267136234
11Burnley2610412-933
12Newcastle268711-1631
13Southampton269413-1631
14Crystal Palace267910-930
15Brighton266911-727
16Bournemouth267514-1426
17Aston Villa267415-1625
18West Ham256613-1324
19Watford265912-1624
20Norwich264616-2418

Let's keep it going and hopefully we'll get there in the end. COYS
 

coys200

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Out of interest might be a nice little edge. Both wolves and United will have Thursday europa games before they play us. We will have a free week and Leipzig on the Tuesday.
 

MatJspur

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Leicester may get pegged back. From the last 30 available points they have only picked up 12, 6 of them coming with wins over West Ham

Table.png
 
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