Race for The Top 10

[dontcallme]

6th is as good as we can realistically get.

 

[Metalhead]

I think it is probably a step too far to get 5th but it's great for people to be positive. All we can hope for is to see the team win the remaining matches and if somehow we ended up 5th, great but I think that would be the icing on the cake. It's a very faint hope.

 

[spursfan77]

FYI the result of Man City's appeal is Monday.

Not that it really concerns us now though!

It is one game at a time. Im not convinced we will beat Bournemouth.

 

[spursfan77]

I've just done a predictor and got us finishing 8th after winning 2, drawing 2 and losing 1, leaving us 5 points behind 5th. Not beating the scum means we finish below them.

Premier League - Table calculator

Premier League Table calculator

www.worldfootball.net

Fortunately I'm absolutely awful at predicting results!

 

[rossdapep]

Even if Leicester do completely implode (unlikely with Maddison and Chilwell coming back), I see next to zero possibility of us overtaking them because that would require us to win six (five + Everton) games on the bounce - which only Spurs teams in the thick of title races in 2011, 2016 and 2017 have ever done in my lifetime.

Watching Arsenal and Leicester last night actually made me feel sad - both teams seem to move the ball around way better than we do and seem so much more organised. Arsenal looked a complete mess not too long ago, now through changing the formation and integrating a few talented, hungry young players into the side instead of twats like Ozil and Guendouzi, they now look like a half decent team. Even Luiz and fucking Mustafi are looking solid now - without the red card they'd have likely picked up their fifth clean sheet in a row. But apparently it's impossible to create chances without "sorting out the defence" and "something something winning mentality" first.

We have to play both of these teams between now and the end of the season, and on current form both are going to come to the Lane and beat us. Mourinho has had Arsenal's number for years (though that was all under Wenger), so I pray he has some trick up his sleeve, but at the moment the best I can hope for seems to be us nicking a goal from a defensive mistake and then putting 10 men behind the ball like we did against Man Utd and hoping not to concede - can anyone really see a scenario where we take the game to these two teams and emphatically beat them like we used to?

Yes, it's true that they have been able to move the ball better. But we have two big problems in that regard;

Moussa Sissoko, a player who is not a passing technician
Tanguy Ndombele and not being able to get him to to speed.

Besides Arsenal have always signed players who are technically good. All of their midfielders are good with the ball and can play tidy football. Their problem is mentality and I want to see more than 3 consecutive games before I judge their defence as cured. As we all know Luiz is capable of throwing in a bad game and Mustafi can suddenly drop into bad form.

 

[C0YS]

We should still try for 5th until it's mathematically impossible. To not do so would suggest a very poor mentality.

Is it possible? Just. To set things straight we will almost certainly need to win all our games.

So I'm not going to focus on us, because what we need to do is simple. So what about the competition, and what points can we expect.

Assuming a win against Bournemouth

Leicester
7 points ahead of us (effectively 8 with goal difference) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us.
predicted points estimate = 1-6 points, probably around 3.

My prediction
Bournmouth - 3 points 0 points
Sheffield United - 1 - 3 points
Tottenham - 0 points (again, in this hypothetical scenario I am assuming we win all our games!)
Man Utd - 0-1 point

So even in the lower estimate we are unlikely to close the gap. Leicester are not on good form at all, even including the palace result. But I just cant see them losing to Bournemouth, if they win that game, they will do enough. If they loose, then things might get interesting. We will find out very soon.

Man Utd
ahead of us by 7 points (effectively 8 with gd) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us
predicted points estimate: 6-15 points. My prediction 11 points

My prediction
Villa - 3 points 3 points
Southampton 1-3 points
Palace - 1-3 points
Chelsea - 0-3 points
Leicester - 1-3 points

So, I actually think Man Utd are more likely to be catch up-able that Leicester. It would require them to have a dip in form. Again if they fail to win against Villa things will look more rosy, but the lower estimate leaves very little leeway.

Wolves
ahead of us by 3 (we currently have effectively a better goal difference, but it's tight)
7 points needed to guarantee finishing ahead of us.
Predicted points estimate: 3-11 points. My prediction 8 points

Sheffield Utd 1point 0 points
Everton 0-3 points
Burnley 1-3 points
Crystal Palace 1-3
Chelsea 0-1

Wolves have a hard run coming up, the easiest game on paper is Palace, and Palace are a very unpredictable team. If we win all our games I suspect we will finish above Wolves.

Sheffield United
Ahead of us by 2 points (we have a better goal difference)
8 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 2-9 points. Prediction 6

Leicester 0-3 points
Everton 1-3 points
Southampton 1-3 points

Very possible to go ahead, but I could also see them win those three games, but suspect they will drop at least two points

Chelsea
Ahead of us by 8 points (we have effectively better goal difference than them, but its close)
2 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 3-7 points My prediction 4 points

Norwich 3 points
Man utd 0-3 points
Liverpool 0-1 points

Chelsea are not safe. Norwich is their make or break game. Lose that and they might be in trouble. Don't think it is realistic to pass them though.



Some cause for optimism. The teams ahead all have a very difficult last two fixtures. This is good because pressure can really do some strange things. If Leicester or Man utd go into the last two fixtures with 5 points separating us and them we have a chance (though they would probably play out for a tactical draw come the last game!) because these are tough fixtures and could easily end up with two loses. For Leicester we could even extend that to Sheffield Utd. If Leicester are I would say, 7 points ahead of us come the Sheffield utd game the pressure could see a collapse.

The problem is the fixtures before hand are more straightforward and they need to loose a lot of points to really make this viable. Similarly, winning all our games will be tough. Winning against Arsenal is very important, if we can make the Leicester game a bit of a cup final then we stand a small chance.

A set of bad results in the next game for both teams will change the complexion. I have them both as bankers, and they should be. If they get through those games ok, I see it as basically impossible, if they stumble we might just be able to slip in, if every little coin toss goes are way. All I really want is for us to apply as much pressure as possible to those ahead of us and try and if we are within 5 points in the last two games, just cross our fingers and hope the pressure of needing just that one point will be too much for them. It wont, but I would be proud of how we finished if we get it to that point.

 

[BringBack_leGin]

Win tomorrow and we’re 1 point off being in the top 6.

Having grown up never seeing us make the top 6 until I was wrapping up at uni, I still am desperate for us to keep up our streak of top 6 e try season since 08/08’s failings. In a league as saturated with quality as this, that still represents something to be proud of (not our performances or our general season, but our remaining within that mini league).

 

[bubble07]

Win tomorrow and we’re 1 point off being in the top 6.

Having grown up never seeing us make the top 6 until I was wrapping up at uni, I still am desperate for us to keep up our streak of top 6 e try season since 08/08’s failings. In a league as saturated with quality as this, that still represents something to be proud of (not our performances or our general season, but our remaining within that mini league).

Thats what i was saying to rival fans who said thats nothing to boast about and they are probably right

 

[ShaunL84]

Is it top 6 or 7 that qualifies for Europa League?

I wouldn't mind the competition. It gives us a chance of winning a major trophy and it's another route back into the CL.

 

[BringBack_leGin]

Thats what i was saying to rival fans who said thats nothing to boast about and they are probably right

Who do they support, clubs who traditionally always finish in the top three and win multiple trophies?

I was born in 85, so all through primary school, secondary school and university supported a side that finished 9-14th, barring two years under Gerry Francis where we finished 7th and 8th. Top 6 was the holy grail and also beyond our reach, especially when the CL was exclusive to actual champions. So yes, I’d much rather be top 3, I’d much rather be top in fact, but having grown up with a club equivalent to modern day Everton, I take pride in having not finished outside the top 6 in a decade, and only twice in 15 years.

 

[spud]

.......at the moment the best I can hope for seems to be us nicking a goal from a defensive mistake and then putting 10 men behind the ball like we did against Man Utd and hoping not to concede - can anyone really see a scenario where we take the game to these two teams and emphatically beat them like we used to?

Not a fucking chance.

 

[Montalbano]

The big loss for Leicester has been Ricardo Pereira. They're 100% not the same team without him and I think they'll struggle in all of their remaining games. I strongly believe they're going to lose to Sheffield and United.

Wolves look likely to drop at least a point across Everton, Burnley, Palace, and Chelsea who have all looked competitive since the restart.

Top 5 will be ours to lose.

 

[Monkey boy]

Win tomorrow and we’re 1 point off being in the top 6.

Having grown up never seeing us make the top 6 until I was wrapping up at uni, I still am desperate for us to keep up our streak of top 6 e try season since 08/08’s failings. In a league as saturated with quality as this, that still represents something to be proud of (not our performances or our general season, but our remaining within that mini league).

we could also take some comfort from the fact that this season has been a shit show from the start and will have been our worst season for a number of years. If we can still finish in the top 6 ahead of the likes of Arsenal, Everton and Wolves who have all spent considerable sums of money I’d see that as a decent end of season and something to hopefully build on.

 

[yido_number1]

Win tomorrow and we’re 1 point off being in the top 6.

Having grown up never seeing us make the top 6 until I was wrapping up at uni, I still am desperate for us to keep up our streak of top 6 e try season since 08/08’s failings. In a league as saturated with quality as this, that still represents something to be proud of (not our performances or our general season, but our remaining within that mini league).

Oh how far our expectations have fallen... I was born in 81 so not far off in age but top 6 is a nothing achievement. I remember Poch saying something along the lines of raising the fans expectations and making us want more. He'd be rolling in his retirement bed over this.

 

[Marty]

The big loss for Leicester has been Ricardo Pereira. They're 100% not the same team without him and I think they'll struggle in all of their remaining games. I strongly believe they're going to lose to Sheffield and United.

Wolves look likely to drop at least a point across Everton, Burnley, Palace, and Chelsea who have all looked competitive since the restart.

Top 5 will be ours to lose.

I agree with your assessment of the two clubs but top 5 still isn't ours to lose, it's Leicester's to lose and ours to capitalise on.

But we need a perfect record in the last four to have even an outside chance, and I'm just not confident at all that we will manage it.

 

[C0YS]

Oh how far our expectations have fallen... I was born in 81 so not far off in age but top 6 is a nothing achievement. I remember Poch saying something along the lines of raising the fans expectations and making us want more. He'd be rolling in his retirement bed over this.

Right so what should our expectations be for the end of the season?

Like top 6 is really about has realistically ambitious as we can be.

 

[BringBack_leGin]

Oh how far our expectations have fallen... I was born in 81 so not far off in age but top 6 is a nothing achievement. I remember Poch saying something along the lines of raising the fans expectations and making us want more. He'd be rolling in his retirement bed over this.

I’m not saying top 6 is my expectation or ambition, only that after my entire youth being spent supporting a side that was genuinely mediocre and at best mid table, top 6 is still important to me.

You might think ‘no difference between 6th and 10th’ but I think there is.

At the very least you’ll have an FA Cup win, and maybe one other final, in your conscious memory, that I don’t, not to mention two third place finishes and between 85 and 90 (I’m guessing you’re too young to remember the 85 season of near misses all over).

My one pleasant memory up until Jol taking over is Ginola. Maybe a smattering of Klinsmann. So yes, for me I feel pleased with what has happened since those dark times.

 

[DogsOfWar]

Oh how far our expectations have fallen... I was born in 81 so not far off in age but top 6 is a nothing achievement. I remember Poch saying something along the lines of raising the fans expectations and making us want more. He'd be rolling in his retirement bed over this.

It depends how you look at it, either 5 teams above us or 86 teams below us (assuming there are still 92 league clubs)?
It's the same for trophies, we've won 3 of the big 4 trophies in the last 30 years. More than any other team in the league system apart from the traditional top 5 (although Leeds, Blackburn and Leicester's title wins were probably a bigger deal).

If we come 6th it's a par year for us in the Premiership era.

 

[yido_number1]

I’m not saying top 6 is my expectation or ambition, only that after my entire youth being spent supporting a side that was genuinely mediocre and at best mid table, top 6 is still important to me.

You might think ‘no difference between 6th and 10th’ but I think there is.

At the very least you’ll have an FA Cup win, and maybe one other final, in your conscious memory, that I don’t, not to mention two third place finishes and between 85 and 90 (I’m guessing you’re too young to remember the 85 season of near misses all over).

My one pleasant memory up until Jol taking over is Ginola. Maybe a smattering of Klinsmann. So yes, for me I feel pleased with what has happened since those dark times.

As far as I'm concerned we are either making the money from the Champions League by finishing in the top 4 or we might aswell be one place above relegation. 6th is nothing to celebrate at all especially with the shower of shit we've churned out this year.

 

[andy00900]

Im sure we'll see Jose's new style of attacking football any day now and our fortunes will change.