Manager Watch: Ange Postecoglou

[danielneeds]

You are really expecting too much. You really think say we end 9th and below, no cups, frequent losses, he will be retained? Really?

Well if Levy sees no correlation between buying teenagers and having a squad that lacks consistency to mix it at the top end of the table then we will just keep going in circles.

 

[Stamford]

A bottom half finish and zero cups and yeah, he's gone. What about a disappointing 8th/9th with a good cup run though? Or is he already running on credit wrt club high-ups?

EDIT: The guy managed 5th somehow after Kane leaving and not being replaced and having 2 senior CBs for the first half of the season. It's the club's prerogative of course but demanding everyone gives it their best without doing so in return is wearing very thin.

8th with a good cup run isnt good enough at all. Not even close.

 

[Misfit]

8th with a good cup run isnt good enough at all. Not even close.

Fair enough.

 

[Monkey boy]

What is a good cup run anyway? Anything that ends with anything but the actual cup is in my eyes a bad cup run. Let’s say we get kind draws all the way to the final of the FA cup but then lose to say Man Utd, would anyone really give us or Ange in that instance?

 

[Styopa]

What is a good cup run anyway? Anything that ends with anything but the actual cup is in my eyes a bad cup run. Let’s say we get kind draws all the way to the final of the FA cup but then lose to say Man Utd, would anyone really give us or Ange in that instance?

I agree about cup runs, especially in domestic competitions. In 2021, for example, we made it to the final after winning just two matches in normal time and one on penalties. Whether or not Mourinho should have been sacked before the final, getting that far likely said more about the favourable draw than it did about our progress under him:

Ultimately, everything has to be put into context. We finished fourth and made it to the Champions League final during Poch's last season even though Poch and the team were clearly losing steam. His first season at the club was less impressive and, objectively, worse, but we were building momentum and on an upward trajectory.

 

[panoma]

Well if Levy sees no correlation between buying teenagers and having a squad that lacks consistency to mix it at the top end of the table then we will just keep going in circles.

He buys teenagers because they have a good chance to retain, and even increase, their transfer value. Not because he believes they will improve our first team, at least not short term. It makes sense from a financial POV.

Ideally they develop into better players capable of actually improving us (Dele, Bale etch), but obviously lot of uncertainty coming with young players.

 

[1882andallthat]

Surely it depends how he does in the cups?

If we finish 8th and win a treble I’d say there would be a dog in Ibiza’s chance he stays.

I’m making a guess here but I reckon Trix is implying finishing 8th - 9th and being out of Europe means no trophy wins either, because if we finish 8-9th and win a cup we’re in Europe.

For what it’s worth I’ve said it recently and I’ll say it again I think we will finish anywhere between 8th and 14th this season and I base that on our league form since the turn of this year. I don’t see us as being consistent enough to be higher, I know we finished 5th but in my opinion what got us that high was the excellent start before it all fell apart at home to Chelsea.

The wide variation of 8th to 14th represents how inconsistent I think we will be in the league, there will be bumps in the road it’s just a case of how many. I don’t see how this team in its current form suddenly develops a mental toughness to see games out consistently with the personnel we have and with so many youngsters to get us higher than 8th. By all means disagree if you want but I’m calling it how I see it.

I believe with a bit of luck we win a cup and I reckon there’s a better chance of us winning one of the cups we’re in than finishing higher than 8th unless something drastically improves with our metal toughness and game management and consistently seeing out and repelling teams and not leaking goals when intensity drops.

Why I say luck in the cups, is because with a bit of luck the shit show games where this team crumbles doesn’t happen in a knockout game of a cup. It happened twice with Man Utd who won the League Cup and FA Cup in successive season by also putting in some awful shit show league games where they were inconsistent and they scraped by against Coventry in that Semi by luck and the sheer seat of their pants. They were also fortunate that Liverpool had an off day didn’t kill them off a round earlier when Man United were out for the count in the first hour but just about hung in there and Man United landed a couple of knock out blows late on in front of a home crowd. Maybe we will get lucky in a cup.

 

[Styopa]

He buys teenagers because they have a good chance to retain, and even increase, their transfer value. Not because he believes they will improve our first team, at least not short term. It makes sense from a financial POV.

Ideally they develop into better players capable of actually improving us (Dele, Bale etch), but obviously lot of uncertainty coming with young players.

Exactly this, young players, much like assets, are significantly more likely to appreciate in value than older players, often dramatically. Hitting the jackpot with a player like Bale just once can offset the cost of multiple acquisitions, whereas older players typically depreciate in value. From a business perspective, this strategy makes a lot of sense, especially since younger players tend to command much lower salaries compared to their more experienced counterparts.

There's also other associated benefits, for example, fans are usually excited about the potential of young and homegrown players- just look at all the pages here about Moore, Bergvall, Gray etc. It gets the fans on board and buys the club more time, as it creates the perception—whether accurate or not—that a bright future is just on the horizon.

 

[Mr Pink]

Whilst cup runs, notwithstanding a cup win, will be taken into consideration when it comes to Levy evaluating the season, ultimately our league finish will be the biggest consideration.

Finishing 5th/6th is around par. Anything below that is regression, barring a cup win to overshadow a poorer finish in the league. Winning the EL in particular would be a huge success as it brings the bonus of CL football.

But failing to win something and finishing below 5/6th would surely not go down well with Levy.

Unless he's already accepted that he's prepared for a few erratic seasons and is sticking with Ange regardless (barring disaster) to see where it takes us down the line

So it really depends if Levy has had a change of mindset or will he be the same as usual.

Context is key though, and certainly how the players perform and feel as a group going forward.

 

[Trix]

Surely it depends how he does in the cups?

If we finish 8th and win a treble I’d say there would be a dog in Ibiza’s chance he stays.

If we are out of Europe then he hasn't won one trophy, let alone a treble now has he.

The clue was in the words mate.

 

[Trix]

I'd give him longer, the whole season. By January we won't know if he's gonna win the Europy and get us CL.

I never said I'd sack him in January I said that's when I'd start to assess(IMO) whether he was the right man for the job or not, because that's enough time to see whether his philosophy has real long term merit. I think barring a total collapse he will see the season out regardless. The question was whether he will get another if we aren't in Europe next year, and again imo the answer is very much no.

 

[Styopa]

I never said I'd sack him in January I said that's when I'd start to assess(IMO) whether he was the right man for the job or not, because that's enough time to see whether his philosophy has real long term merit. I think barring a total collapse he will see the season out regardless. The question was whether he will get another if we aren't in Europe next year, and again imo the answer is very much no.

I firmly support giving him time, at least a third season unless there’s a complete collapse. However, I agree about thoroughly assessing his performance sooner rather than later- even if that's just to reassure ourselves that he is the right man.

We can't enter the summer lacking confidence in him without having proper continuity plans in place. It’s crucial that we have a clear direction. Being in a state of uncertainty—where we hesitate to fully back him due to the possibility of a looming dismissal—won’t help anyone involved. We don't want a situation like ETH at Man U or the Nuno summer debacle.

 

[Trix]

Whilst cup runs, notwithstanding a cup win, will be taken into consideration when it comes to Levy evaluating the season, ultimately our league finish will be the biggest consideration.

Finishing 5th/6th is around par. Anything below that is regression, barring a cup win to overshadow a poorer finish in the league. Winning the EL in particular would be a huge success as it brings the bonus of CL football.

But failing to win something and finishing below 5/6th would surely not go down well with Levy.

Unless he's already accepted that he's prepared for a few erratic seasons and is sticking with Ange regardless (barring disaster) to see where it takes us down the line

So it really depends if Levy has had a change of mindset or will he be the same as usual.

Context is key though, and certainly how the players perform and feel as a group going forward.

Thing is the squad is being built in such a way that everyone will expect, and in fact require game time. Without Europe that just won't happen. It's ok if you have young players that will bide their time, and deadwood that you don't care if they play or not, but that is not where we will be next Summer. What we currently have is a core of experienced pro's, some very high profile bought in youngsters, and an academy where the players have been told you will get first team exposure if you keep performing. They are actually signing pro contracts on this basis. No Europe will set everything we have done so far back massively. Levy won't be happy at all if we don't have Europe next season for many reasons. There's no way he will have accepted that as an outcome considering the make up of the squad and the expenditure on players.

 

[Mr Pink]

Thing is the squad is being built in such a way that everyone will expect, and in fact require game time. Without Europe that just won't happen. It's ok if you have young players that will bide their time, and deadwood that you don't care if they play or not, but that is not where we will be next Summer. What we currently have is a core of experienced pro's, some very high profile bought in youngsters, and an academy where the players have been told you will get first team exposure if you keep performing. They are actually signing pro contracts on this basis. No Europe will set everything we have done so far back massively. Levy won't be happy at all if we don't have Europe next season for many reasons. There's no way he will have accepted that as an outcome considering the make up of the squad and the expenditure on players.

Yes that makes sense.

I guess whilst there are many things that can be weighed up, there's also minimum requirements that need to be met.

Ultimately results dictate those benchmarks and if we continue to look as open as we do with no attempt to rebalance, you do fear if if this way of playing will yield enough points to keep everyone happy - in what is in a very competitive league.

Is that your line of thinking?

 

[Tucker]

Not even that I don’t think would sustain him, and why shouid it? Backed reasonably, and regressed

Backed reasonably? Come on Herc, we only signed one player that wasn’t a teenager this summer.

Backed reasonably indeed.

 

[Mr Pink]

Can debate the extent of the backing all day long.

Its still within the 6 best squads in the league

 

[Styopa]

Can debate the extent of the backing all day long.

Its still within the 6 best squads in the league

Perhaps it falls "within" the top six but it’s certainly up for debate whether it’s actually stronger than Villa’s or Newcastle’s squads.

 

[Tucker]

Perhaps it falls "within" the top six but it’s certainly up for debate whether it’s actually stronger than Villa’s or Newcastle’s squads.

Yeah I don’t think it’s by any means certain that we have the sixth best squad in the league. City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea all have stronger squads.

It’s up for debate if Villa, Newcastle, and United have as strong or stronger squads than us too.

Top eight at the very least I’d say, top 5 at the most. As far as squad strength goes.

It’s ludicrous to suggest he was “backed” this summer, we signed a good striker and a bunch of teenagers. Even last summer was mostly a window of signing potential.

 

[Mr Pink]

Perhaps it falls "within" the top six but it’s certainly up for debate whether it’s actually stronger than Villa’s or Newcastle’s squads.

Ill be honest, I think its better than Newcastle's.

Similar to Villa.

In a parrallel universe, how would Emery perform with our squad....he certainly wouldnt have this open....

 

[Hercules]

Backed reasonably? Come on Herc, we only signed one player that wasn’t a teenager this summer.

Backed reasonably indeed.

That is why I used the word ‘reasonably’ as some will believe he was backed