Eddie Howe = Gone

[VoteMe4Prez]

Good egg but won't go far after this.

 

[C0YS]

"Incredibly harsh" is a bit strong. All I said was that I don't think he's quite as brilliant as some seem to think he is. That doesn't mean I don't think he's a decent manager.

It's obviously been great for the club to come flying up the league's from where they were, but it's hardly the Cinderella story people make it out to be given the financial backing they've had.

All in all he's done a good job with them in the premiership but I don't think he's the Arsenal/England etc. level manager that he was being touted as a couple of years ago. He's taken Bournemouth as far as he can and has moved on, which might be best for him. Like I say he looked absolutely at his wits end this season so it might do him good to take some time off for the sake of his own health.

As for OGS and Lampard I obviously have various opinions about them but I'm not really sure what that has to do with anything

Ok we will talk finances. While some articles point out that Bournemouth had an ownership that invested money into the club and that they spent a lot. This is a real simplification of what really happened. Bournemouth needed investment to compete with financial resources of competitors. They were in big debt but getting promoted very quickly, required the owner clearing debt otherwise the club would have crumbled. But in terms of transfer spend there is nothing exceptional about Bournemouth's investment. While transfer spending since 2013 of over 7 million put them in the top 10 or so biggest spenders in the championship this didn't account for sales.

Net Spend
14/15 - 1 million
13/14 - 3.5 million (all spent on one player who was a complete flop)
12/13 - 500k (league 1)
11/12 - -500k
10/11 -1.7 million
09/10 - 0
08/09 - -200k

Total Spend after Howe becoming manager before promotion:
2.6 Million

That's not rich. Transfermarket.com gives a market value of all the players combined in the club. This is linked to past transfer fees but is prediction based on assumed valued of players. When looking at this metric in 13/14 they were 22nd in the league for club value. In the promotion year they were 21st out of 24.

The total value in their promotion year of the players in the club was 22 million. If you doubled that it would put them 9th in the league, missing out on the play offs. If you tripled that, they come 4th.

I mean, don't get me wrong, they had financial backing. If they didn't they wouldn't exist anymore. But that's the point, that's what the financial backing did. The total investment in the playing squad was minimal. 2.6 million is enough to buy a good championship level player in 2014/15 that's it. It's Cinderella, there was no luck, at it wasn't just Howe. But that achievement is astronomical, particularly when there have been seriously financially doped clubs in the lower leagues (like Notts County or to a lesser extent Crawley Town) whose experiments went nowhere.

The point on Lampard and OGS is that they were given chances and have done alright, maybe not great, but alright. There is no reason to believe Howe would have flopped big time moving to a bigger club. Howe, might not be suited to managing a big club, but he is beyond decent, at the level he has managed he has achieved the most. He won the football league manager of the decade in 2015 and there wasn't really anyone close to that.

Managers are something you can rank that easy, again, good manager at what? Guardiola would probably himself admit that if you put him at a club Bournemouth and he wouldn't do that well. Because what he demands requires a certain ability, but he is very good at managing good teams. In my view, what Howe has done is equivalent to Guardiola's quadruple season in terms of managerial achievement. He's not decent, he's very very good, with a caveat, at that kind of club.

In a big club who knows. It's harsh to say he would have been a disaster at a big club, because he might not be, but there is risk, 20 years ago he'd be given the chance, but now the PL can take managers from wherever, and these kind of gambles rarely happen.

 

[sausage]

I know net spend has to be taken in context, but they've spent £176m in the last five years which is more than Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester. It's pretty much the combined total for us and Palace.

Possibly all it tells us is that they didn't have many valuable assets to sell and that they needed to spend a lot to catch up with other teams, but I imagine it will be a concern for anyone thinking of hiring him.

I think that's because he assembled a mostly young squad, and they've held on to it.

Mings was sold for twice what they paid, but other than that they've mostly kept everyone else that was big money:

£25m Lerma
£20m Ake
£19m Solanke
£16m Danjuma
£15m Billing
£14m Kelly
£13.5m Rico
£12m Mepham
£10m Brooks
£6m Cook

That's £150m right there. On the basis that you replace your starting 11 over a few seasons to e PL standard one, you'll probably end up spending £165m if you average £16m per position, and that's not guaranteed to get you much. Not much of a net unless you can sell off your other players, and with crap facilities and no academy investment it just doesn't come easily I guess.

The one thing I think they've been guilty of is over-paying, which is basically what people on here think we should do. Their version of 'just pay the money' has basically helped partly-fund Liverpool the cash to go from EL to PL winners. Ibe and Solanke were near £40m and they had barely looked useful in the senior team. Solanke, for example, was Balotelli level for liverpool and they spunked nearly £20m on him!

 

[spursfan77]

Around here he'd definitely be a popular choice as our head scout.

Probably. He’s been a disaster in the transfer market for them in recent years!

He was a defender himself yet couldn’t buy a decent one.

I don’t buy it that he wouldnt do well at a bigger club but he’d need to get better at buying players.

 

[TheHoddleWaddle]

Isnt a manager alive that could have kept Bournemouth up with the injuries they sustained. Absolute top bloke. People saying he was out of ideas, he had no chance. Worked wonders and when he had a fully fit squad, they played some good attacking football.

It's a funny game for managers. Ole S is given a job at united after failing miserably at Cardiff. Lampard gets a high profile role with no real success.

This guy deserves a top job. Given the chance I am sure hed perform brilliantly.

 

[TheHoddleWaddle]

I think that's because he assembled a mostly young squad, and they've held on to it.

Mings was sold for twice what they paid, but other than that they've mostly kept everyone else that was big money:

£25m Lerma
£20m Ake
£19m Solanke
£16m Danjuma
£15m Billing
£14m Kelly
£13.5m Rico
£12m Mepham
£10m Brooks
£6m Cook

That's £150m right there. On the basis that you replace your starting 11 over a few seasons to e PL standard one, you'll probably end up spending £165m if you average £16m per position, and that's not guaranteed to get you much. Not much of a net unless you can sell off your other players, and with crap facilities and no academy investment it just doesn't come easily I guess.

The one thing I think they've been guilty of is over-paying, which is basically what people on here think we should do. Their version of 'just pay the money' has basically helped partly-fund Liverpool the cash to go from EL to PL winners. Ibe and Solanke were near £40m and they had barely looked useful in the senior team. Solanke, for example, was Balotelli level for liverpool and they spunked nearly £20m on him!

I dont think they had much choice. They had to invest. With all the money bags clubs circling the better talent, who else is there to go for?

 

['O Zio]

I used to think it was unrealistic on things like Football Manager, how you could single handedly get successive promotions on a shoestring all the way up to the PL, and then have fans get upset if you drew a game. It's things like this that remind me it's realistic.

The fact that they stayed in the PL for 5 seasons with a tiny stadium and no off-field investment is remarkable. He's basically taken the hit for a badly run club, when he should realistically be unsackable for all he's done for them.

Like I say I'm not trying to claim he's not done a good job, just that I think there's still a lot of doubt for me that he's got what it takes to be a success elsewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if his story turns out to be a bit like David Moyes i.e. was just the right fit for Everton but never managed to replicate that success anywhere else. If Howe proves me wrong in 10 years time then I'll happily admit I'm wrong, but something about him just makes me doubt that.

 

['O Zio]

Ok we will talk finances. While some articles point out that Bournemouth had an ownership that invested money into the club and that they spent a lot. This is a real simplification of what really happened. Bournemouth needed investment to compete with financial resources of competitors. They were in big debt but getting promoted very quickly, required the owner clearing debt otherwise the club would have crumbled. But in terms of transfer spend there is nothing exceptional about Bournemouth's investment. While transfer spending since 2013 of over 7 million put them in the top 10 or so biggest spenders in the championship this didn't account for sales.

Net Spend
14/15 - 1 million
13/14 - 3.5 million (all spent on one player who was a complete flop)
12/13 - 500k (league 1)
11/12 - -500k
10/11 -1.7 million
09/10 - 0
08/09 - -200k

Total Spend after Howe becoming manager before promotion:
2.6 Million

That's not rich. Transfermarket.com gives a market value of all the players combined in the club. This is linked to past transfer fees but is prediction based on assumed valued of players. When looking at this metric in 13/14 they were 22nd in the league for club value. In the promotion year they were 21st out of 24.

The total value in their promotion year of the players in the club was 22 million. If you doubled that it would put them 9th in the league, missing out on the play offs. If you tripled that, they come 4th.

I mean, don't get me wrong, they had financial backing. If they didn't they wouldn't exist anymore. But that's the point, that's what the financial backing did. The total investment in the playing squad was minimal. 2.6 million is enough to buy a good championship level player in 2014/15 that's it. It's Cinderella, there was no luck, at it wasn't just Howe. But that achievement is astronomical, particularly when there have been seriously financially doped clubs in the lower leagues (like Notts County or to a lesser extent Crawley Town) whose experiments went nowhere.

The point on Lampard and OGS is that they were given chances and have done alright, maybe not great, but alright. There is no reason to believe Howe would have flopped big time moving to a bigger club. Howe, might not be suited to managing a big club, but he is beyond decent, at the level he has managed he has achieved the most. He won the football league manager of the decade in 2015 and there wasn't really anyone close to that.

Managers are something you can rank that easy, again, good manager at what? Guardiola would probably himself admit that if you put him at a club Bournemouth and he wouldn't do that well. Because what he demands requires a certain ability, but he is very good at managing good teams. In my view, what Howe has done is equivalent to Guardiola's quadruple season in terms of managerial achievement. He's not decent, he's very very good, with a caveat, at that kind of club.

In a big club who knows. It's harsh to say he would have been a disaster at a big club, because he might not be, but there is risk, 20 years ago he'd be given the chance, but now the PL can take managers from wherever, and these kind of gambles rarely happen.

Fucking hell mate, transfermarkt.com valuations? If that the level you have to go to to quantify how brilliant he is I think that speaks volumes.

Again, I've never said I don't think he's a decent manager, but there are significant flaws in the way he does things that make me think he's not cut out for a "top" job.

You've admitted yourself that there's horses for courses j.e. guardiola might not be suitable for a club like Bournemouth, so I'm not sure why you can't see my point that Howe might not be suited to a "bigger" club? It's two sides of the same coin.

Again, fair play to him for what he's done. But I just don't think he's quite the second coming of Brian Clough that he's made out to be by some.

I guess time will tell.

 

[emiley heskey]

The thing is none of those players were for over 20 mill, and that's the thing. they are expensive for Bournemouth but not for most teams.

They got solanke for 19m, Ibe for 15m and Billing for another 15m... That's pretty expensive for Bournemouth standard !! Liverpool got so much money for shit players for Bournemouth

 

[dontcallme]

It surprises me that Bournemouth didn’t sell more. They bought good young players and there was a time they could have sold numerous players for well above their value.

They could then reinvest the money and maintain a healthy financial situation.

Instead they held onto all their players and now are in a terrible financial state.

 

[Ionman34]

He did a fantastic job at Bournemouth and while they made a few dud signings in recent seasons they have also had some good successes.

Howe kept them in the Prem for several seasons while playing the type of football that better clubs will be interested in.

For some reason though, I think he'll fail at another job.

I agree and, for me, it's because he doesn't really have an idea about how to structure a team from back to front.

In the 5 seasons that Bournemouth have been in the Prem they have conceded 60+ goals in every one of them. They've survived because they've managed to score enough to amass sufficient points to survive, but they've had to score a fair few goals to do so. It was always on the cards that the lack of defensive structure would come back to haunt them, so when the goals for took a hit, the result is what we see now.

Compare him to Dyche. Dyche has not just survived but thrived in the Prem because Burnley are built on a solid defensive shape. They also have their bad spells, but he's focussed on keeping the goals against low, meaning that they can amass points without having to score too many goals. Howe never addressed this issue over his 5 years, which shows me that he's lacking in the ability to recognise and address that imbalance. MOTD actually did a piece on this, showing the lack of any defensive coherence. They'd get plenty of bodies behind the ball, but the lack of structure meant that there was still a lot of space that could be exploited. In one example I saw around 6 Bournemouth players in or around their 6 yard box, but none pressing the attacker inside the 18 yard box when the opposition scored. This has been symptomatic of their defensive approach over the last 5 seasons, and is purely down to coaching, or lack thereof.

This is why I think he'd fail at a bigger club. He might have better quality players and may score more goals, meaning they'd likely put a few "lesser" teams to the sword. But they'll always leak goals, so will never achieve what will be expected.

Don't get me wrong, I like Howe and he should definitely be lauded for everything he has achieved, but I just can't see him taking the step up due to his limitations.

 

[wirE]

He’s done quite well for Bournemouth. This was in the end the right choice for both parts

I imagine he’ll end up in Palace or West Ham

 

[Gassin's finest]

I'm very surprised they didn't keep him, as he's probably their best chance to get back up quickly. If anything I'd have thought they'd struggle to retain him, as any Prem club who sacks their manager next season will look at him first.

Although if he's happy slumming it, there's a job going at Scunny...

 

[KingKay]

He’s done quite well for Bournemouth. This was in the end the right choice for both parts

I imagine he’ll end up in Palace or West Ham

Or Everton ... or Newcastle.

 

[Gassin's finest]

Or Everton ... or Newcastle.

Christ, imagine going from dreaming of Poch and Neymar, to Howe and Callum Wilson.

 

[sausage]

Christ, imagine going from dreaming of Poch and Neymar, to Howe and Callum Wilson.

They might want to try the Howe way, man.

 

[GutBucket]

I like Howe and he deserves a chance in a bigger club IMO, some mid table club perhaps.

 

[Spurs2020]

i would take him if mourinho fails by christmas lol

 

[Dannyspur]

I think some of the issue was sticking with his championship level player mates that got them up through the divisions and stubbornly refusing to pick the new players who the club bought. Many of whom hardly got a game until injuries forced the situation. I have heard a couple of times that he wouldn't even talk to some of the players.
There were some awful signings which compounded the situation.

 

[spursfan77]

I like Howe and he deserves a chance in a bigger club IMO, some mid table club perhaps.

You're right, he could be in at Arsenal if Arteta has them bottom half at the start of next season.