Champions League 2019/2020

LexingtonSpurs

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Joined
Aug 27, 2013
Messages
13,456
Well, Spurs qualified for the Group Stage.

But, we could be looking at a tough draw in 2019/20.

Man City, Arsenal/Chelsea winner, and Spurs/Liverpool winner will all go in Pot 1 - with Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern/Dortmund, PSG, and Zenit.

I don't know if Spurs will be in 2nd Pot or 3rd Pot if we lose - but 3rd Pot could be a very tough draw.

But for now - we are in!
 

topper

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Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
1,242
Well, Spurs qualified for the Group Stage.

But, we could be looking at a tough draw in 2019/20.

Man City, Arsenal/Chelsea winner, and Spurs/Liverpool winner will all go in Pot 1 - with Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern/Dortmund, PSG, and Zenit.

I don't know if Spurs will be in 2nd Pot or 3rd Pot if we lose - but 3rd Pot could be a very tough draw.

But for now - we are in!
If in pot 3 no one but no one would want us in their group as third tier seed’
 

hellava_tough

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Apr 21, 2005
Messages
6,773
I'm sure we'll still have enough to qualify from our group whatever the draw

Just hope we can strengthen well in the summer
 

Col_M

Pointing out the Obvious
Joined
Feb 28, 2012
Messages
10,963
If in pot 3 no one but no one would want us in their group as third tier seed’
100%. Barcelona and B Munich the ones to be wary of but they’d be just as concerned with us.
 

Gb160

I could catch a monkey
Joined
Jun 20, 2012
Messages
15,423
Just need Chelsea to beat Arsenal first, then we have to get through the qualifiers, of course.
 

LexingtonSpurs

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2013
Messages
13,456
TOTTENHAM
UEFA rank:
17th
Possible pots: 1 (seeded), 2, 3

Spurs are the one Premier League team with a bit of a complicated situation. Of course, if they win the Champions League they will be in Pot 1.

However, if they lose to Liverpool then, as it stands, they are going to need some help to avoid being in Pot 3 and the prospect of a tougher group draw.

To be in Pot 2, Spurs would need two of the following to happen:

- Arsenal lose Europa League final
- Sevilla fail to qualify
- FC Porto fail to qualify
- Roma fail to qualify

How likely is this? Well it looks like Sevilla only have a slim chance of making it, two points adrift with one game to play and an inferior head to head record on those above them (Getafe, Valencia). Roma are a point outside the top four with two games left. FC Porto will be
in the Champions League but seem set to go through qualifying.

It could be the case that Tottenham have an extra reason to hope Arsenal are beaten in the Europa League final.
 

Gb160

I could catch a monkey
Joined
Jun 20, 2012
Messages
15,423
TOTTENHAM
UEFA rank:
17th
Possible pots: 1 (seeded), 2, 3

Spurs are the one Premier League team with a bit of a complicated situation. Of course, if they win the Champions League they will be in Pot 1.

However, if they lose to Liverpool then, as it stands, they are going to need some help to avoid being in Pot 3 and the prospect of a tougher group draw.

To be in Pot 2, Spurs would need two of the following to happen:

- Arsenal lose Europa League final
- Sevilla fail to qualify
- FC Porto fail to qualify
- Roma fail to qualify

How likely is this? Well it looks like Sevilla only have a slim chance of making it, two points adrift with one game to play and an inferior head to head record on those above them (Getafe, Valencia). Roma are a point outside the top four with two games left. FC Porto will be
in the Champions League but seem set to go through qualifying.

It could be the case that Tottenham have an extra reason to hope Arsenal are beaten in the Europa League final.
Blue is the colour, football is the game :singing:
 

Saoirse

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2013
Messages
3,104
TOTTENHAM
UEFA rank:
17th
Possible pots: 1 (seeded), 2, 3

Spurs are the one Premier League team with a bit of a complicated situation. Of course, if they win the Champions League they will be in Pot 1.

However, if they lose to Liverpool then, as it stands, they are going to need some help to avoid being in Pot 3 and the prospect of a tougher group draw.

To be in Pot 2, Spurs would need two of the following to happen:

- Arsenal lose Europa League final
- Sevilla fail to qualify
- FC Porto fail to qualify
- Roma fail to qualify

How likely is this? Well it looks like Sevilla only have a slim chance of making it, two points adrift with one game to play and an inferior head to head record on those above them (Getafe, Valencia). Roma are a point outside the top four with two games left. FC Porto will be
in the Champions League but seem set to go through qualifying.

It could be the case that Tottenham have an extra reason to hope Arsenal are beaten in the Europa League final.
538's simulations give Arsenal a 40% chance, Roma a 9% chance, and Sevilla a 2% chance. Porto have a 1% chance to win the league and qualify automatically, else they'll have to win two qualifying matches. They'll be seeded for both so if you presume they have a 2 in 3 chance in each tie, that's just over a 44% chance to get in through qualifiers, so I'll guesstimate a 45% chance overall. That would therefore give us a 97.9642% chance of being in Pot 2, and a 2.0358% chance of Pot 3.
 

sly1

Active Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2004
Messages
339
538's simulations give Arsenal a 40% chance, Roma a 9% chance, and Sevilla a 2% chance. Porto have a 1% chance to win the league and qualify automatically, else they'll have to win two qualifying matches. They'll be seeded for both so if you presume they have a 2 in 3 chance in each tie, that's just over a 44% chance to get in through qualifiers, so I'll guesstimate a 45% chance overall. That would therefore give us a 97.9642% chance of being in Pot 2, and a 2.0358% chance of Pot 3.
Then if you give us a 30-40% chance of winning the Champions League, it's more like:

35% pot 1
65% pot 2
1% pot 3
 

Saoirse

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2013
Messages
3,104
Then if you give us a 30-40% chance of winning the Champions League, it's more like:

35% pot 1
65% pot 2
1% pot 3
Yep - they've got us at 30% but I think that's a little harsh, we looked way better in the first half of the season before injuries and fatigue kicked in so the three week break should be a big help to us. There really isn't much difference between the top two pots though, it's getting into at least Pot 2 which helpus our chances for next year (although if we play as we can we can get through any group as we've proven). You'd be looking at something like this:

Pot 1:

Tottenham
Chelsea
Barcelona
Man City
Bayern Munich
Juventus
Paris Saint-Germain
Zenit Saint Petersburg

Pot 2:

Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
Chelsea
Borussia Dortmund
Napoli
Shakhtar Donetsk
Ajax
 

sly1

Active Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2004
Messages
339
Yep - they've got us at 30% but I think that's a little harsh, we looked way better in the first half of the season before injuries and fatigue kicked in so the three week break should be a big help to us. There really isn't much difference between the top two pots though, it's getting into at least Pot 2 which helpus our chances for next year (although if we play as we can we can get through any group as we've proven). You'd be looking at something like this:

Pot 1:

Tottenham
Chelsea
Barcelona
Man City
Bayern Munich
Juventus
Paris Saint-Germain
Zenit Saint Petersburg

Pot 2:

Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
Chelsea
Borussia Dortmund
Napoli
Shakhtar Donetsk
Ajax
I think 30% is harsh, but not sure I agree that we looked way better in the first half of the season. I think we were better at grinding out results and probably had more luck. I don’t think we would have beaten City or come back against Ajax in the first half of the season.

Hopefully that title race has taken its toll on Liverpool and they’ll use the next three weeks as an opportunity to gradually deflate after months of pressure.
 

ardiles

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2006
Messages
5,658
TOTTENHAM
UEFA rank:
17th
Possible pots: 1 (seeded), 2, 3

Spurs are the one Premier League team with a bit of a complicated situation. Of course, if they win the Champions League they will be in Pot 1.

However, if they lose to Liverpool then, as it stands, they are going to need some help to avoid being in Pot 3 and the prospect of a tougher group draw.

To be in Pot 2, Spurs would need two of the following to happen:

- Arsenal lose Europa League final
- Sevilla fail to qualify
- FC Porto fail to qualify
- Roma fail to qualify

How likely is this? Well it looks like Sevilla only have a slim chance of making it, two points adrift with one game to play and an inferior head to head record on those above them (Getafe, Valencia). Roma are a point outside the top four with two games left. FC Porto will be
in the Champions League but seem set to go through qualifying.
Sevilla missed out on next Season’s CL. They finished 6th in La Liga.

Now for Roma to follow suit in a few hours time.
 

WalkerboyUK

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Messages
17,090
We’ve already defied the odds this season, so I don’t really have any concerns about what pot we are in next year.
 

Oh Teddy Teddy

Active Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2017
Messages
613
Yep - they've got us at 30% but I think that's a little harsh, we looked way better in the first half of the season before injuries and fatigue kicked in so the three week break should be a big help to us. There really isn't much difference between the top two pots though, it's getting into at least Pot 2 which helpus our chances for next year (although if we play as we can we can get through any group as we've proven). You'd be looking at something like this:

Pot 1:

Tottenham
Chelsea
Barcelona
Man City
Bayern Munich
Juventus
Paris Saint-Germain
Zenit Saint Petersburg

Pot 2:

Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
Chelsea
Borussia Dortmund
Napoli
Shakhtar Donetsk
Ajax
CHELSEA ARE IN BOTH POTS :nailbiting:
 

ardiles

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2006
Messages
5,658
Roma drew with Sassuolo tonight.

If Inter & Atalanta both win one of their two remaining matches, then Roma will not have CL next season.
 
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