25 more goals...

[hellava_tough]

I was having a chat with a friend of mine recently about the up-coming season; where different teams would finish, who would do well, etc, etc. My friend lived and died by a simple theory – the team that scores the most goals over the course of the season generally wins the league. Therefore to him, the league was won or lost in the transfer windows because the team that bought the best goal-scorers, would inevitably win the title.

Okay, so his theory isn’t rocket science and it seems a pretty obvious thing to say, but in an era where we can (and we do!) analysis every aspect of statistical data about the game, it’s quite refreshing to have very basic rules of thumb to formulate our predictions.

Anyhow, I had a quick look on wiki and sure enough the team that scored the most goals over 38 games has won the league the last 4 years in a row (and 8 out of the last 10 years). The winning team’s defensive record has to be good also, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be the best.

Anyway, if you take this theory and apply it to our beloved Spurs, it’s a very basic way of comparing ourselves to our competitors, as well as giving us an indication of how far away we are to a title challenge.

If we take the last three seasons and compare our goals scored and points haul to the eventual Premier League winners, the stats read something like this:

2012/13

Goals behind the title winner:23

Pts behind the title winner:17

2011/12

Goals behind the title winner:27

Pts behind the title winner:20

2010/11

Goals behind the title winner:23

Pts behind the title winner:18


In terms of points over the last 3 seasons, Spurs have needed to turn 6 or 7 wins into victories (or a combination of draws/wins) to emerge with 20 extra points, and the league title. And on average they’ve had to score 24/25 more goals a season to win the title.

What I find quite interesting about these stats is the fact that we’ve managed to maintain our points position with the top team, whilst (i) the teams above us have spent obscene amounts of cash on players and (ii) when we ourselves haven’t had a decent 20-25 goal a season striker banging them in.

So what does this mean? Well, in the context of recent seasons, as I’ve said above we need to score another 25 goals over 38 games, and win another 20 points to come away with the league title.

How do we do this?

Firstly, we have to maintain our goals and points record in comparison to our rivals, before adding to it. We’ve managed to keep a constant distance (20pts) from the eventual league winners for the last 3 seasons, so I believe we’ll be able to do this bear-minimum in 2013/14.

Secondly then, we need those extra 25 goals. If, and it’s a big if, we sign the likes of Villa he could add another 12 or 13 goals to Defoe’s tally of last season (23/24 league goals for Villa in total).

Our central midfield was piss-poor last season in terms of league goals, pitching in with a miserly 2 goals between Dembele, Sandro, Parker, Livermore, Huddlestone, Holtby. With Paulinho now in the frame and hopefully a more attack-minded Dembele, 12 or 13 more goals from central midfield could be a reality (14/15 league goals in total).

Finally, there’s Gareth Bale. Our star-player chipped in with 21 league goals last season, so much of this analysis relies on him to reproduce the form of 2012/13. However, there’s one thing I haven’t heard many people (any people??) discuss; what if Bale is even better next season? The guy must be improving in ability and confidence with every game. If you then put him in an improved team (Paulinho and Villa maybe), with a coach who’s realised how to get the best out of him, you might have a player that scores 28, 29, 30 goals. C.Ronaldo managed 31 goals in a similar role a few years back.

To conclude then, I propose that it’s not totally unrealistic to suggest that we could add another 25 league goals to our tally in 2013/14. Okay, that doesn’t guarantee us a league title, but we’ll be very close to it, definitely finishing in the top 4.

Anyway, as always it’ll be interesting to hear what you guys and girls have to say about this. How far away are we from a title challenge? How do we compare to our rivals? What are your predictions for next season?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Premier_League_seasons

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[Ironskullll]

I was having a chat with a friend of mine recently about the up-coming season; where different teams would finish, who would do well, etc, etc. My friend lived and died by a simple theory – the team that scores the most goals over the course of the season generally wins the league. Therefore to him, the league was won or lost in the transfer windows because the team that bought the best goal-scorers, would inevitably win the title.

Okay, so his theory isn’t rocket science and it seems a pretty obvious thing to say, but in an era where we can (and we do!) analysis every aspect of statistical data about the game, it’s quite refreshing to have very basic rules of thumb to formulate our predictions.

Anyhow, I had a quick look on wiki and sure enough the team that scored the most goals over 38 games has won the league the last 4 years in a row (and 8 out of the last 10 years). The winning team’s defensive record has to be good also, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be the best.

Anyway, if you take this theory and apply it to our beloved Spurs, it’s a very basic way of comparing ourselves to our competitors, as well as giving us an indication of how far away we are to a title challenge.

If we take the last three seasons and compare our goals scored and points haul to the eventual Premier League winners, the stats read something like this:

2012/13

Goals behind the title winner:23

Pts behind the title winner:17

2011/12

Goals behind the title winner:27

Pts behind the title winner:20

2010/11

Goals behind the title winner:23

Pts behind the title winner:18


In terms of points over the last 3 seasons, Spurs have needed to turn 6 or 7 wins into victories (or a combination of draws/wins) to emerge with 20 extra points, and the league title. And on average they’ve had to score 24/25 more goals a season to win the title.

What I find quite interesting about these stats is the fact that we’ve managed to maintain our points position with the top team, whilst (i) the teams above us have spent obscene amounts of cash on players and (ii) when we ourselves haven’t had a decent 20-25 goal a season striker banging them in.

So what does this mean? Well, in the context of recent seasons, as I’ve said above we need to score another 25 goals over 38 games, and win another 20 points to come away with the league title.

How do we do this?

Firstly, we have to maintain our goals and points record in comparison to our rivals, before adding to it. We’ve managed to keep a constant distance (20pts) from the eventual league winners for the last 3 seasons, so I believe we’ll be able to do this bear-minimum in 2013/14.

Secondly then, we need those extra 25 goals. If, and it’s a big if, we sign the likes of Villa he could add another 12 or 13 goals to Defoe’s tally of last season (23/24 league goals for Villa in total).

Our central midfield was piss-poor last season in terms of league goals, pitching in with a miserly 2 goals between Dembele, Sandro, Parker, Livermore, Huddlestone, Holtby. With Paulinho now in the frame and hopefully a more attack-minded Dembele, 12 or 13 more goals from central midfield could be a reality (14/15 league goals in total).

Finally, there’s Gareth Bale. Our star-player chipped in with 21 league goals last season, so much of this analysis relies on him to reproduce the form of 2012/13. However, there’s one thing I haven’t heard many people (any people??) discuss; what if Bale is even better next season? The guy must be improving in ability and confidence with every game. If you then put him in an improved team (Paulinho and Villa maybe), with a coach who’s realised how to get the best out of him, you might have a player that scores 28, 29, 30 goals. C.Ronaldo managed 31 goals in a similar role a few years back.

To conclude then, I propose that it’s not totally unrealistic to suggest that we could add another 25 league goals to our tally in 2013/14. Okay, that doesn’t guarantee us a league title, but we’ll be very close to it, definitely finishing in the top 4.

Anyway, as always it’ll be interesting to hear what you guys and girls have to say about this. How far away are we from a title challenge? How do we compare to our rivals? What are your predictions for next season?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Premier_League_seasons

.

I agree with much of what you say, though I wouldn't necessarily expect GB to score more goals even if he has a better season. Plenty of his goals were hail marys, at the arse end of the game when it was worth a gamble, but in similar situations if Spurs are already winning, efforts such as those might be less likely to happen on the first place; equally a more potent strike force might make those long range efforts less likely/necessary. I'm looking forward to finding out.

 

[JerryGarcia]

Bale scored most of his goals after Christmas when he changed position, if he picks up anywhere near where he left off he'll be close to 25/30 goals this season. I think a lot of this comes down to squad depth though, the top 3 clubs have players able to come off the bench and change games through goals or assists. We're getting there but I think the big challenge is going to be maintaining our form and goal ratio when key players pick up knocks.

 

[WiganSpur]

This is why we need Villa AND Bobby Soldado plain and simple

 

[Flashspur]

I like the theory....lets get the goal scorer DL

 

[Huddlebone]

I dont think we need that 25goals man. Insted 4-5 players who can be close to 10 and maby have Bale and then Villa with 15-20 goals. We need those behind to push, like dembele, Lennon and holtby is players i want to at least be in the area of 7-9 goals. And now with paulinho how can maby have 11-12goals

 

[Spurger King]

In defence we've got Vertonghen who should weigh in with a few.

Hard to say how much our midfield will score next season. It's looking like Sandro, Dembele, and Paulinho, and of those three only Paulinho has a scoring record that suggests he could potentially contribute. Hard to say with Paulinho, as on one hand he's been playing in a league where the technical skills of the defenders is below that of the Premiership, but on the other hand he's not only got a good scoring record at international level, but next season he'll also be playing alongside better players than those at Corinthians.

If we're playing a 4-3-3 formation we'd ideally need three forwards who will get into double figures, with at least two of them hopefully getting between 15-20. If Bale stays fit I'm sure he'll be our top goal scorer, but after that we're relying on Adebayor to regain the form of his first season, and/or bringing in a striker like Villa or Negredo/Soldado.

I'm actually pretty confident that a front three of Bale, Ade, and Villa would get close to 50 goals between them. I'm less confident of us actually signing Villa though.

After that we currently have players like Defoe, Dempsey, and Siggy who would/should score close to double figures, depending on playing time. If rumours are to be believed we're prepared to sell Defoe and Dempsey so hopefully we'll bring in some replacements with comparable scoring records (which will be hard).

All in all it could be a moot point anyway, as a powerhouse midfield of Sandro, Dembele, and Paulinho appears ready-made for low scoring victories where we shut the game down once we're in front.

 

[hellava_tough]

In defence we've got Vertonghen who should weigh in with a few.

Hard to say how much our midfield will score next season. It's looking like Sandro, Dembele, and Paulinho, and of those three only Paulinho has a scoring record that suggests he could potentially contribute. Hard to say with Paulinho, as on one hand he's been playing in a league where the technical skills of the defenders is below that of the Premiership, but on the other hand he's not only got a good scoring record at international level, but next season he'll also be playing alongside better players than those at Corinthians.

If we're playing a 4-3-3 formation we'd ideally need three forwards who will get into double figures, with at least two of them hopefully getting between 15-20. If Bale stays fit I'm sure he'll be our top goal scorer, but after that we're relying on Adebayor to regain the form of his first season, and/or bringing in a striker like Villa or Negredo/Soldado.

I'm actually pretty confident that a front three of Bale, Ade, and Villa would get close to 50 goals between them. I'm less confident of us actually signing Villa though.

After that we currently have players like Defoe, Dempsey, and Siggy who would/should score close to double figures, depending on playing time. If rumours are to be believed we're prepared to sell Defoe and Dempsey so hopefully we'll bring in some replacements with comparable scoring records (which will be hard).

All in all it could be a moot point anyway, as a powerhouse midfield of Sandro, Dembele, and Paulinho appears ready-made for low scoring victories where we shut the game down once we're in front.

An interesting point, as the Chelsea team of 2005/06 that pundits are starting to compare our midfield 3 to, didn't score the most goals to win the title, but only conceded 15 goals in 38 games.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004–05_FA_Premier_League

 

[Harry_Snatch]

Nail on the head IMO !

Fergie always said he wanted 4 top class strikers! Jose wants his wide players and midfield to score! All this spiel about grinding out results when you play bad is basically just about being able to defend and having players that have a knack of getting the self a goal from broken play or a set piece!
Those players cost money and you need more than 1. For us to get this 25 goals we need Bale and 2 strikers that can get 15+ a season or a striker and a midfielder that can get 15+ a season! I can't see DL really being willing to buy 2 more attacking players on top of Paulinho this window.

 

[hellava_tough]

Some analysis of our rivals’ goal-scoring capability is needed at this stage, compared to our own.

For the most part of last season the 4 teams that finished above us played with a 4-2-3-1 formation, or a derivative of it. Basically they had 4 defenders, 2 midfielders and 4 attacking players on the field.
Obviously this wasn’t always the case – teams might be reduced to 10 men, or might bring on more or less attacking/defensive players if they were chasing/killing a game, but generally speaking this rule holds true.

So with this in mind, where were the goals coming from (see spoiler below EDIT which I don't know how to add )?

Man Utd and Chelsea spread their goals over all 3 areas, as did Spurs (to a lesser extent). Man City had plenty of midfielder goals, but their attacking players weren’t that great and Arsenal just relied on their attacking players.

Incredibly, there were only 2 players who scored more than 20 goals (Van Persie 26, and Bale 21).

What this means is that City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs are all crying out for that 20+ goal a season striker. However, where Spurs have the advantage over the rest of their opposition is that we’ve got a 20+ goal-scoring attacking midfielder, which the others haven’t. Even players who were lauded like Mata (12 goals), Walcott (14 goals) or Tevez (11 goals) were no-where near Bale’s scoring record. Basically, if Spurs add a 20+ goal-scoring striker to their squad, our rivals will have to do the same AND add a 20+ goal-scoring midfielder as well.

A really interesting fact, too, was that only Arsenal had 4 players who scored over 10 goals. Man Utd and Man City had 3 players, whilst Chelsea and Spurs only had 2. It seems that most teams only rely on 2 or 3 players in their whole squad to get the goals.

Okay, so a lot of this analysis relies on players maintaining their 2012/13 form into next season. But as a rough overview, you can start to spot teams’ overall strengths and weaknesses. We also have to be mindful of who our rivals sign in the summer. I know that sounds obvious, but in terms of scoring goals and winning matches, this will be crucial.

Anyway, to conclude, I can see why AVB, Levy and Uncle Joe seem to be really pushing to sign a goal scoring midfielder (Paulinho) and a 20+ a season striker (Villa). Because if we do that, we’ve got just as good a chance as any team to win the league next year.


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012-13_Manchester_United_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012-13_Manchester_City_F.C._season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Chelsea_F.C._season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012-13_Arsenal_F.C._season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Tottenham_Hotspur_F.C._season#Matches


Man Utd

4 attacking players: 59 goals (1,12,2,10,1,1,26,6)

2 midfield players: 7 goals (1,1,1,1,2,1)

4 defensive players: 14 goals (3,4,1,3,1,2)

Man City

4 attacking players: 44 goals (14,12,11,4,2,1)

2 midfield players: 16 goals (7,4,2,2,1)

4 defensive players: 5 goals (2,1,1,1)

Chelsea

4 attacking players: 38 goals (8,12,9,4,1,2,1,1)

2 midfield players: 20 goals* (15,5)

4 defensive players: 14 goals (5,2,2,4,1)

*I counted Lampard as a ‘midfield player’ as opposed to an ‘attacking player’

Arsenal

4 attacking players: 62 goals (14,11,11,12,5,6,2,1)

2 midfield players: 1 goals

4 defensive players: 6 goals

Tottenham

4 attacking players: 51 goals (21,11,7,5,3,4)

2 midfield players: 2 goals (1,1)

4 defensive players: 9 goals (4,2,1,1,1)

 

[hellava_tough]

Nail on the head IMO !

Fergie always said he wanted 4 top class strikers! Jose wants his wide players and midfield to score! All this spiel about grinding out results when you play bad is basically just about being able to defend and having players that have a knack of getting the self a goal from broken play or a set piece!
Those players cost money and you need more than 1. For us to get this 25 goals we need Bale and 2 strikers that can get 15+ a season or a striker and a midfielder that can get 15+ a season! I can't see DL really being willing to buy 2 more attacking players on top of Paulinho this window.

Ordinarily I'd agree with you

But for some reason I feel differently this time around. I think it's all the ITK and media articles, which suggest that the Spurs' hierarchy seem to think it's make or break time for the club. Especially since we've fluked-out and found ourselves with a genuinely world-class player in the side.

Obviously only time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Villa in a Spurs shirt come Sept 1st

 

[StartingPrice]

I dont think we need that 25goals man. Insted 4-5 players who can be close to 10 and maby have Bale and then Villa with 15-20 goals. We need those behind to push, like dembele, Lennon and holtby is players i want to at least be in the area of 7-9 goals. And now with paulinho how can maby have 11-12goals

I believe that we will go from being the least prolific team in the top 5 to being the most prolific:
Even without new strikers I doubt the ones we have could score less, and I believe we will have not one but two new strikers, anyway (for reasons given by HT, post #11).
The midfield will certainly chip in with more. Paulinho is apparently a good contributor, and with him making runs into the box our wide work/set-pieces shouldn't be going to waste nearly so much. With the solidity of Sandro and Paulinho beside him, I would expect Dembélé would be encouraged to be slightly more adventurous (and, apparently, he did once play as a forward so must have some potential goal-scoring - and we did see some brief glimpse of that last season). A more settled Sigs should score more consistently, as should Holtby (who didn't score at all).
The defence should also be capable of chipping in a bit more. Walker promises a goal or two. Vertonghen playing consistently in the centre should help matters, too, as should Kaboul if we get him back. Don't know what the situation will be with LB, but if Rose he can score a few.
Most importantly of all switching to a 4-3-3 should see Bale continuing at the same level, or higher, is likely to see someone more prolific that Lennon (sorry ) included and a genuine striker.

 

[Harry_Snatch]

Ordinarily I'd agree with you

But for some reason I feel differently this time around. I think it's all the ITK and media articles, which suggest that the Spurs' hierarchy seem to think it's make or break time for the club. Especially since we've fluked-out and found ourselves with a genuinely world-class player in the side.

Obviously only time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Villa in a Spurs shirt come Sept 1st

Same every year mate! Won't be any different. Same way it won't be any different with the same teams at the top of the table. The prem is structured financially and that's just the way it it is.

We didn't luck out signing a world class midfielder either. We signed a world class GK last year too and VDV before that. The club can just afford a certain quota of top bracket players. Unfortunately just not quite enough to compete.
Enjoy the transfer window but don't let it fool you!

 

[hellava_tough]

I believe that we will go from being the least prolific team in the top 5 to being the most prolific:
Even without new strikers I doubt the ones we have could score less, and I believe we will have not one but two new strikers, anyway (for reasons given by HT, post #11).
The midfield will certainly chip in with more. Paulinho is apparently a good contributor, and with him making runs into the box our wide work/set-pieces shouldn't be going to waste nearly so much. With the solidity of Sandro and Paulinho beside him, I would expect Dembélé would be encouraged to be slightly more adventurous (and, apparently, he did once play as a forward so must have some potential goal-scoring - and we did see some brief glimpse of that last season). A more settled Sigs should score more consistently, as should Holtby (who didn't score at all).
The defence should also be capable of chipping in a bit more. Walker promises a goal or two. Vertonghen playing consistently in the centre should help matters, too, as should Kaboul if we get him back. Don't know what the situation will be with LB, but if Rose he can score a few.
Most importantly of all switching to a 4-3-3 should see Bale continuing at the same level, or higher, is likely to see someone more prolific that Lennon (sorry ) included and a genuine striker.

All good points to ponder SP, but you have to also take into account our rivals as well.

If Arsenal sign Higuin I could see them becoming a very good team again. They'll potentially have a 20+ a season goal-scorer, 4 10+ a season goal-scorers and Jack Wiltshire back, who will also get goals from a midfield position.

Chelsea, too could be a force if they sign a top striker (Schurrle?). Although you have to factor in a declining Frank Lampard - will he get another 15 goals next season?

As for Man Utd, I'm not too sure how much more they can squeeze out of their squad. They've already got a top striker, so perhaps an attacking midfielder who can score 20+ goals a season is a priority. But that's easier said than done.

It'll be interesting to revisit this thread come Sept 1st.

 

[hellava_tough]

Same every year mate! Won't be any different. Same way it won't be any different with the same teams at the top of the table. The prem is structured financially and that's just the way it it is.

We didn't luck out signing a world class midfielder either. We signed a world class GK last year too and VDV before that. The club can just afford a certain quota of top bracket players. Unfortunately just not quite enough to compete.
Enjoy the transfer window but don't let it fool you!

Do you envision any further signings for us?

 

[StartingPrice]

All good points to ponder SP, but you have to also take into account our rivals as well.

If Arsenal sign Higuin I could see them becoming a very good team again. They'll potentially have a 20+ a season goal-scorer, 4 10+ a season goal-scorers and Jack Wiltshire back, who will also get goals from a midfield position.

Chelsea, too could be a force if they sign a top striker (Schurrle?). Although you have to factor in a declining Frank Lampard - will he get another 15 goals next season?

As for Man Utd, I'm not too sure how much more they can squeeze out of their squad. They've already got a top striker, so perhaps an attacking midfielder who can score 20+ goals a season is a priority. But that's easier said than done.

It'll be interesting to revisit this thread come Sept 1st.

Sorry, HT, I was specifically addressing the question of where we can improve on last season's goals tally (or I thought I was ).
For us, I am fairly confident that something like that will pan out. And I think our defence will be tighter, too - expecting a much better goal difference next season.
Citeh, United and Chelsea all have new managers, and I really don't know how that will pan-out for any of them - ATM I am happy enough sniffing opportunity. If just one of them has a difficult transition period we would make hay - if all three of them do = wahay (Scots wahay when Wallace led, etc., etc. ).
As for the Goons, I know it is going slightly counter to premise of the thread, but I still see their main problem as being in defence and not attack. Noises are being made about Higuain but my suggestion for us takes into account no striker signings. Do the same for the Goons and they don't look like they have that much improvement. Add Higuain and they get a striker who, if he settles and adapts, could be fantastic...but he may not settle, and questions have been asked both about his temperament and his fitness (supposed back problems). And, as said, I just really don't rate their defensive unit that highly. Will signing Higuain be enough to propel their goal-difference forward in the way that ours will - I don't think so.

So, in conclusion...

...COYS! ​

 

[Dembele'Disciple]

What we need to focus on is getting the team creating more chances in order to score those goals. Yes we need the goals but we certainly aren't going to score them by playing the way we did this past season. While our strikers hardly covered themselves in glory neither did any of our attacking players bar bale either. Most of them contributed very little to our team creating more chances and being more efficient in transition. The lack of a proper attacking mid, and top class passers certainly hurt us in this respect. Don't think we've ever had a transfer window more important than this current one as it gives us the option to really push on and be where we'd love to be.

 

[Gassin's finest]

No offence, but basically all of that boils down to the simple premise that if we score more goals then we have a better chance of winning more?

Jimmy Hill would be proud.