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Race for The Top 10

TheVoiceofReason

Well-Known Member
Feb 5, 2005
6,320
15,685
If Bournemouth hangs on here we could pass Leicester and Wolves and sneak CL (if City ban is upheld).

Leicester have matches against Sheffield, ManU and us. Wolves have matches against Burnley, Palace and Chelsea and they typically struggle against sides that set up defensively.

Stranger things have happened.

What about Sheffield who would need to win against Leicester. Don’t do it to yourself!
 

stormfly

Well-Known Member
Dec 6, 2006
4,584
11,990
I don’t for one minute think we will but if we did somehow make it to the CL this season. Then that coupled with managing to hang on with top 4 last year would make me stop moaning about how unlucky we are all the time.
 

WiganSpur

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2012
15,974
32,682
We need to win every game and a lot of results to fall perfectly in our favour to get 5th. The chances went on Thursday, I’d probably put it as low as 1% now.
 

spursfan77

Well-Known Member
Aug 13, 2005
46,680
104,957
If only we hadn’t had all those injuries pre lockdown we’d be well on for fourth. Watford, Burnley draws and the Wolves defeat were games I’m convinced we could of won with an actual attack.
 

Escher

Well-Known Member
Aug 1, 2013
426
715
I like the positive posts here today, and it's not too much of a stretch for us to have CL qualification ALMOST back in our own hands after Thursday. We need 3 things to happen (that are not in our control)

Man City get Euro Ban for at least one season (find that out tomorrow, so if not the CL dream is over for us)
Burnley beat Wolves on Wednesday
Leicester and Sheffield draw on Thursday

Now if we get 9 points from last 3 games we will get 5th place AS LONG AS MAN UTD also beat Leicester last day too.

Obviously we need 3 wins, which is not that likely given our form, but all I'm saying is that it is almost in our own hands.

(I assume Wolves and Sheffield don't win final two games by 10 goal margins or similar)
 

WiganSpur

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2012
15,974
32,682
I like the positive posts here today, and it's not too much of a stretch for us to have CL qualification ALMOST back in our own hands after Thursday. We need 3 things to happen (that are not in our control)

Man City get Euro Ban for at least one season (find that out tomorrow, so if not the CL dream is over for us)
Burnley beat Wolves on Wednesday
Leicester and Sheffield draw on Thursday

Now if we get 9 points from last 3 games we will get 5th place AS LONG AS MAN UTD also beat Leicester last day too.

Obviously we need 3 wins, which is not that likely given our form, but all I'm saying is that it is almost in our own hands.

(I assume Wolves and Sheffield don't win final two games by 10 goal margins or similar)
Chelsea losing to Norwich would put the cat amongst the pigeons as unlikely as that may be.
 

C0YS

Just another member
Jul 9, 2007
12,780
13,817
We should still try for 5th until it's mathematically impossible. To not do so would suggest a very poor mentality.

Is it possible? Just. To set things straight we will almost certainly need to win all our games.

So I'm not going to focus on us, because what we need to do is simple. So what about the competition, and what points can we expect.

Assuming a win against Bournemouth

Leicester
7 points ahead of us (effectively 8 with goal difference) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us.
predicted points estimate = 1-6 points, probably around 3.

My prediction
Bournmouth - 3 points 0 points
Sheffield United - 1 - 3 points
Tottenham - 0 points (again, in this hypothetical scenario I am assuming we win all our games!)
Man Utd - 0-1 point

So even in the lower estimate we are unlikely to close the gap. Leicester are not on good form at all, even including the palace result. But I just cant see them losing to Bournemouth, if they win that game, they will do enough. If they loose, then things might get interesting. We will find out very soon.

Man Utd
ahead of us by 6 points (effectively 7 with gd) with 4 games left.
They need 5 points to finish ahead of us
predicted points estimate: 6-15 points. My prediction 11 points

My prediction
Villa - 3 points 3 points
Southampton 1-3 points
Palace - 1-3 points
Chelsea - 0-3 points
Leicester - 1-3 points

So, I actually think Man Utd are more likely to be catch up-able that Leicester. It would require them to have a dip in form. Again if they fail to win against Villa things will look more rosy, but the lower estimate leaves very little leeway.

Wolves
ahead of us by 3 (we currently have effectively a better goal difference, but it's tight)
7 points needed to guarantee finishing ahead of us.
Predicted points estimate: 3-11 points. My prediction 8 points

Sheffield Utd 1point 0 points
Everton 0-3 points
Burnley 1-3 points
Crystal Palace 1-3
Chelsea 0-1

Wolves have a hard run coming up, the easiest game on paper is Palace, and Palace are a very unpredictable team. If we win all our games I suspect we will finish above Wolves.

Sheffield United
Ahead of us by 2 points (we have a better goal difference)
8 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 2-9 points. Prediction 6

Leicester 0-3 points
Everton 1-3 points
Southampton 1-3 points

Very possible to go ahead, but I could also see them win those three games, but suspect they will drop at least two points

Chelsea
Ahead of us by 8 points (we have effectively better goal difference than them, but its close)
2 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 3-7 points My prediction 4 points

Norwich 3 points
Man utd 0-3 points
Liverpool 0-1 points

Chelsea are not safe. Norwich is their make or break game. Lose that and they might be in trouble. Don't think it is realistic to pass them though.



Some cause for optimism. The teams ahead all have a very difficult last two fixtures. This is good because pressure can really do some strange things. If Leicester or Man utd go into the last two fixtures with 5 points separating us and them we have a chance (though they would probably play out for a tactical draw come the last game!) because these are tough fixtures and could easily end up with two loses. For Leicester we could even extend that to Sheffield Utd. If Leicester are I would say, 7 points ahead of us come the Sheffield utd game the pressure could see a collapse.

The problem is the fixtures before hand are more straightforward and they need to loose a lot of points to really make this viable. Similarly, winning all our games will be tough. Winning against Arsenal is very important, if we can make the Leicester game a bit of a cup final then we stand a small chance.

A set of bad results in the next game for both teams will change the complexion. I have them both as bankers, and they should be. If they get through those games ok, I see it as basically impossible, if they stumble we might just be able to slip in, if every little coin toss goes are way. All I really want is for us to apply as much pressure as possible to those ahead of us and try and if we are within 5 points in the last two games, just cross our fingers and hope the pressure of needing just that one point will be too much for them. It wont, but I would be proud of how we finished if we get it to that point.
Updated the post no one asked for!
 

SpursFox

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2018
186
456
Just popping in here and its probably been discussed and laughed at already, but 5th isn't inconceivable. Would require Leicester no more than at most drawing one of their remaining games, which isnt that unlikely to be fair, and wolves and Sheff doing some slipping up and us winning all three, but it is an outcome that does happen in some universe somewhere, just not this one sadly.
 

Escher

Well-Known Member
Aug 1, 2013
426
715
Chelsea losing to Norwich would put the cat amongst the pigeons as unlikely as that may be.

Actually, as unlikely as that seems, it's a good point, since Chelsea then play Liverpool and Wolves (final day), even a draw against Norwich would leave them vulnerable with a goal difference just +5 on us (+14 vs +9)
 

fishhhandaricecake

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2018
18,702
46,941
Hope we can get europa qualification, "if this club is not in europe we are nothing" also its always just good having more spurs games on, more minutes for the squad and another chance at a realisitic trophy.
 

ShaunL84

Well-Known Member
Jan 3, 2013
3,725
10,853
Actually, as unlikely as that seems, it's a good point, since Chelsea then play Liverpool and Wolves (final day), even a draw against Norwich would leave them vulnerable with a goal difference just +5 on us (+14 vs +9)

Norwich are done.

If Chelsea drop points to them then I'll eat my foot.
 

whitelanefever

Well-Known Member
Aug 21, 2012
2,149
2,855
Just popping in here and its probably been discussed and laughed at already, but 5th isn't inconceivable. Would require Leicester no more than at most drawing one of their remaining games, which isnt that unlikely to be fair, and wolves and Sheff doing some slipping up and us winning all three, but it is an outcome that does happen in some universe somewhere, just not this one sadly.
I think City will win there CAB appeal tomorrow.. Emails were obtained ilegally & presented As evidence in isolation & not full relay of conversations.. It will be top 4 in CL
 

dirtyh

One Skin, two skin.....
Jun 24, 2011
8,629
25,082
I think City will win there CAB appeal tomorrow.. Emails were obtained ilegally & presented As evidence in isolation & not full relay of conversations.. It will be top 4 in CL

lol, it won’t be the illegally obtained evidence that wins the appeal, it’ll be the shitloads of cash bunged to the people that matter in the lead up to the decision
 
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