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Race for The Top 10

E17yid

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2013
16,985
30,495
I’m probably going to get plenty of negative ratings for this but what the hell...

Could missing out on Europe next year be a good thing for next season? Since we have a fair amount of internationals playing in the Euros over the summer, could it work in our favor to have them only playing once a week and in the occasional domestic cup for next season?

I’d be willing to bet Kane’s injuries as well as a few others might be due to overuse. It might help...just trying to find a silver lining in this shit of a season.

I’d be all up for missing out on Europa next season if it wasn’t for the fact that winners get CL qualification. If it was like it used to be I’d be in your camp but as it stands I’d want us in it and to try our best to win the fucking thing.
 

gaffer

New Member
Jan 16, 2004
29
20
Some stats for you that will primarily fend of any hope that we have for finishing top 4 (the first part courtesy of Lee McQueen on Last Word on Spurs pod):

  1. The average number of points required to finish Top 4 in PL over last 20 years is 72 points.
  2. Currently we have 31 points (from 24 games) - that is an average of 1.35 pts per game
  3. To get to 72 points we'll need to take 41 points from 15 games - that is 2.73 pts per game. 2.73 pts is championship winning form. Throughout our 2016-17 season we only averaged 2.26 pts per game.
And this is before you consider our form which of late has seen us fail to beat Norwich, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Watford.

The only glimmer of hope I can give you is that by this point of the season (since 2003) the team in 4th place has had on average 43 points - Chelsea are on 39 which suggests that the threshold may be lower this season - potentially as low as 66-68; however that would still require us to take 2.33 pts per game for the remainder of the season to even be in that equation.

For these reasons Top 4 is a write-off (though Jose and players shouldn't concede this). For me its now a question of weighing up whether finishing 7th and getting in Europa League is better than not being in Europe at all.
 

gaffer

New Member
Jan 16, 2004
29
20
I’d be all up for missing out on Europa next season if it wasn’t for the fact that winners get CL qualification. If it was like it used to be I’d be in your camp but as it stands I’d want us in it and to try our best to win the fucking thing.

There are pro's and con's - however I'm coning to the conclusion that Europa League provides some great opportunity for younger fringe players to acclimatise to first team roles. Its impossible to quantify but how much was Kane's development aided by his Europa appearances?; Woolwich have been able to provide game time to the likes of Saka and Martinelli and both are now playing PL games. Imagine how much better embedded into the 1st team Skipp, KWP, Parrott and even Lo Celso, Sessegnon as new signings would have been.

I know Woolwich are hardly an exemplar for anything on-field at the moment but I think they will see some benefit.

The Europa League should provide at least 6 gimme fixtures (more if we were to enter in the qualifying rounds) in which we could play the likes of Whiteman, Skipp, Jack Roles, Clarke Parrott etc in a blend with established 1st team players whilst also providing opportunities for rest weeks for Kane et al.

Then as E17 states its an avenue to CL qualification.

The Champions Leagiue is considered the be-all and end-all but I think for a club of our size and current situation the Europa League 2020-21 will be an important platform for us.
 

SpursFox

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2018
186
456
And so cometh the much prophecised Leicester form dip. They have to be looking over their shoulders now, if not directly at us, but the top 4 at least.
 

rabbikeane

Well-Known Member
Mar 29, 2005
6,884
12,677
I’d be all up for missing out on Europa next season if it wasn’t for the fact that winners get CL qualification

Europa League would more or less guarantee 2-3 youth players getting their breakthrough. Was important for guys like Kane back then, could do the same for Parrott and others.
 

13VanDerBale13

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2011
14,269
33,647
This thread should be moved to general football, because top 4 does not concern us this season, no matter how many teams above us slip up, we will continue to slip up as well.
 

homer hotspur

Well-Known Member
Dec 7, 2014
2,868
4,637
And so cometh the much prophecised Leicester form dip. They have to be looking over their shoulders now, if not directly at us, but the top 4 at least.
I'm more concerned that Burnley got the 3
And so cometh the much prophecised Leicester form dip. They have to be looking over their shoulders now, if not directly at us, but the top 4 at least.
And we are looking over our shoulders at Burnley....
 

RichieS

Well-Known Member
Dec 23, 2004
11,916
16,436
This thread should be moved to general football, because top 4 does not concern us this season, no matter how many teams above us slip up, we will continue to slip up as well.
Alternatively: We have some very good players who we know are better than they've shown in the first half of the season, important ones coming back from injury and are looking to add one or two more this month; along with signs that the squad is starting to get to grips with what our new manager, one of the most successful of all time, is asking them to do.

As supporters of the club, why don't we just put all our energy into cheering them on to do the best they can for the rest of the season and see where that lands us instead of making vacuous statements about unknowns?
 

dudu

Well-Known Member
Jan 28, 2011
5,314
11,048
Some stats for you that will primarily fend of any hope that we have for finishing top 4 (the first part courtesy of Lee McQueen on Last Word on Spurs pod):

  1. The average number of points required to finish Top 4 in PL over last 20 years is 72 points.
  2. Currently we have 31 points (from 24 games) - that is an average of 1.35 pts per game
  3. To get to 72 points we'll need to take 41 points from 15 games - that is 2.73 pts per game. 2.73 pts is championship winning form. Throughout our 2016-17 season we only averaged 2.26 pts per game.
And this is before you consider our form which of late has seen us fail to beat Norwich, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Watford.

The only glimmer of hope I can give you is that by this point of the season (since 2003) the team in 4th place has had on average 43 points - Chelsea are on 39 which suggests that the threshold may be lower this season - potentially as low as 66-68; however that would still require us to take 2.33 pts per game for the remainder of the season to even be in that equation.

For these reasons Top 4 is a write-off (though Jose and players shouldn't concede this). For me its now a question of weighing up whether finishing 7th and getting in Europa League is better than not being in Europe at all.

It has nothing to do with what has happened in other seasons though.

Chelsea, the team in 4th currently, need to get 33 points from 15 games, or 2.2 points per game, which, is also championship-winning form no?

Do i think we will get it? Probably not, but that has nothing to do with the average of what it has taken to get there before.
 

NickHSpurs

Well-Known Member
Mar 14, 2004
13,626
11,875
Looks like 4th place is going to the team who is least shit again this season, no one wants it again ?
 

13VanDerBale13

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2011
14,269
33,647
Alternatively: We have some very good players who we know are better than they've shown in the first half of the season, important ones coming back from injury and are looking to add one or two more this month; along with signs that the squad is starting to get to grips with what our new manager, one of the most successful of all time, is asking them to do.

As supporters of the club, why don't we just put all our energy into cheering them on to do the best they can for the rest of the season and see where that lands us instead of making vacuous statements about unknowns?

It's called realism, doesn't mean we wont support the club for the rest of the season, if after the window we add a striker & a cdm then maybe expectation can rise, but as it stands both look unlikely
 

Guernman

Well-Known Member
Aug 24, 2013
1,507
7,838
Watching Liverpool V United is sobering. United look much better than us at the moment, and Liverpool much better than them.

How did we fall behind so far so quickly...
 

BringBack_leGin

Well-Known Member
Jul 28, 2004
27,719
54,929
Watching Liverpool V United is sobering. United look much better than us at the moment, and Liverpool much better than them.

How did we fall behind so far so quickly...
Really? Until the last ten I’ve been thinking ‘bloody hell utd are awful’ and feeling far better about our performance v Liverpool where we actually created significant opportunities.
 

danielneeds

Kick-Ass
May 5, 2004
24,179
48,764
Really? Until the last ten I’ve been thinking ‘bloody hell utd are awful’ and feeling far better about our performance v Liverpool where we actually created significant opportunities.
I thought the striking thing was how similar our performance was to theirs, even though we were at home and they were away.
 

Guernman

Well-Known Member
Aug 24, 2013
1,507
7,838
Really? Until the last ten I’ve been thinking ‘bloody hell utd are awful’ and feeling far better about our performance v Liverpool where we actually created significant opportunities.
I was commenting more on our general football in the last months rather than the particular game against Liverpool where we actually looked pretty good and deserved more.
 

dondo

Well-Known Member
Jan 4, 2006
8,603
14,091
Top 4 is doable for us and a number of teams if we can win 11 or more of the 15 games left.
I personally doubt we or anyone else in the mix for the 3/4 spots will go on a run like that so the advantage is obviously with Chelsea and Leicester who already have the points advantage
 
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