- Jul 1, 2005
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- 3,124
For the first time in my life I look at a league game against Liverpool (home or away) and think that we're more likely to win it than they are. Am I crazy ? I don't think so (well not because of this anyway). It's true that we have an awful record at Anfield but if you ask me that simply refelects that for the last 30-odd years Liverpool have had a much better side and squad than us and are in better form, much higher in the table etc. (same could be said of virtually any top club at home to a less successful one). That certainly is not the case this season by any stretch.
I'm pretty sure that bookies normally go by a combination of current form, league position, important injuries, likelihood of significant resting (e.g. CC matches) and, of course, home advantage. So I found it somewhat astonishing when I checked the odds at a leading bookies for Weds' game:
Liverpool 11/10
Draw 11/5
Spurs 2/1
Last 6 form in all competitions goes:
Spurs W4...D2...L0 Scored 13, Conceded 0
Liv W2...D2...L2 Scored 6, Conceded 6
Admittedly they played 4 of those away to our 2 but then all but 1 of their opponents was in the Championship or bottom 5 of the prem. We're 4 points ahead of them in the league. They've lost 10 games this season to our 4. Our goal difference is 8 better (and if you think that's all down to the Wigan game remember they beat Hull 6-1) and we already beat them quite comfortably with their squad fully fit at the lane.
Also, crucially, they're without their best striker, midfielder and defender. Their record in games without Torres and Gerrard is diabolical. We're without Lennon (I don't think King's availability is overly important given the defensive form without him).
Add to this the 'dead-man-walking Benitez - head drop - here we go again' factor if they concede early and I reckon they will be bricking it.
If I was a betting man I'd be calling 2/1 great value. But since I'm not I'm just bemused Eek Eek Eek because it means they are quite heavy favourite and we're an outside chance. Is this just a lot of scousers backing themselves already ? Or have the bookies got it way wrong ?
I'm pretty sure that bookies normally go by a combination of current form, league position, important injuries, likelihood of significant resting (e.g. CC matches) and, of course, home advantage. So I found it somewhat astonishing when I checked the odds at a leading bookies for Weds' game:
Liverpool 11/10
Draw 11/5
Spurs 2/1
Last 6 form in all competitions goes:
Spurs W4...D2...L0 Scored 13, Conceded 0
Liv W2...D2...L2 Scored 6, Conceded 6
Admittedly they played 4 of those away to our 2 but then all but 1 of their opponents was in the Championship or bottom 5 of the prem. We're 4 points ahead of them in the league. They've lost 10 games this season to our 4. Our goal difference is 8 better (and if you think that's all down to the Wigan game remember they beat Hull 6-1) and we already beat them quite comfortably with their squad fully fit at the lane.
Also, crucially, they're without their best striker, midfielder and defender. Their record in games without Torres and Gerrard is diabolical. We're without Lennon (I don't think King's availability is overly important given the defensive form without him).
Add to this the 'dead-man-walking Benitez - head drop - here we go again' factor if they concede early and I reckon they will be bricking it.
If I was a betting man I'd be calling 2/1 great value. But since I'm not I'm just bemused Eek Eek Eek because it means they are quite heavy favourite and we're an outside chance. Is this just a lot of scousers backing themselves already ? Or have the bookies got it way wrong ?