Race for the Top 4 - 2018/19

Where will we finish in the league ?


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Joined
Jul 26, 2013
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614
I think the bigger gap we keep to 5th the better for our mindset going into the run in. Chelsea losing (and in that manner) I think was good - the expectation is on Pool and City. I want us to go into those 3 big away games with as little pressure as possible, and the other teams with far more to lose. No one is expecting us to win the league, Chelsea are now in a real scrap for 4th, pool have 'potentially' blown a big lead - City will play without fear as but if we go into that game in touching distance then we have half a chance and as close to a free swing as you can get
 

jonnyrotten

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Having read the comments about points required in the big three away games we have left i thought it would be interesting to see our past performance since the Premier League started in 92/93. Our best points haul (6) took place in the very first prem season, while we have only been unbeaten away to City, Liverpool and Chelsea three times in 26 seasons. Even in recent years where we have been in the mix for the title, our average haul in the past three seasons has been 3.33 points.

So in a nutshell, we've come an awful long way this season given all the obstacles, but to get anything above 6 points in these 3 games would be a truly mammoth effort and something the club hasn't done in a generation. Manage your expectations everyone!

P.S We bent City over for the noughties, seven away wins out of nine and only one loss!

Screenshot 2019-02-11 at 10.14.40 AM.png
 

djee

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Nov 24, 2004
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Will be close but, 7 more wins and then Arsenal and Utd would realistically have to win at least 11 of their remaining 13 games to finish above us. That they play each other helps in this regard.

We have home games against LCFC, Palace, Arsenal, Brighton, Huddersfield, Everton, WHU and away fixtures of Burnley, CFC, Liverpool, Bournemouth, City and Soton

No guarantees in that run but I would be shocked if we couldn't pick up 21-24 points from that.

77 will probably be the magic number for top4!
Still confident that 77 points will be enough for top4. After yesterday, that means 6 more wins will do the job.

Should we pick up victories in half of our remaining fixtures, at least 2 from UTD, CFC and AFC would each require a minimum of 10 wins from their 12 to finish above us.

CFC now have a real problem - away trips to Utd and Liverpool are going to be very tough.
AFC have kinder fixtures but have little room for error. Away at us, LCFC, Watford and Palace will be difficult and they will need 3 points against Utd at home.
Utd will likely finish 4th now although they too need to negotiate some hard fixtures - City and LFC at home, Arsenal and Wolves away.

Our run-in isn't wonderful but with a returning Kane and Dele, we should have the resources to finish the job (of top4). We have accumulated the highest points return in the league (30) since December 5th and it would take a staggeringly (though not impossible of course), horrific collapse - coupled with a total change in form for both AFC and CFC to drop out of the CL places.
 
Joined
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Still confident that 77 points will be enough for top4. After yesterday, that means 6 more wins will do the job.

Should we pick up victories in half of our remaining fixtures, at least 2 from UTD, CFC and AFC would each require a minimum of 10 wins from their 12 to finish above us.

CFC now have a real problem - away trips to Utd and Liverpool are going to be very tough.
AFC have kinder fixtures but have little room for error. Away at us, LCFC, Watford and Palace will be difficult and they will need 3 points against Utd at home.
Utd will likely finish 4th now although they too need to negotiate some hard fixtures - City and LFC at home, Arsenal and Wolves away.

Our run-in isn't wonderful but with a returning Kane and Dele, we should have the resources to finish the job (of top4). We have accumulated the highest points return in the league (30) since December 5th and it would take a staggeringly (though not impossible of course), horrific collapse - coupled with a total change in form for both AFC and CFC to drop out of the CL places.
Top four is as good as done to be honest. Both Chelsea and Arsenal are struggling so badly on the road even a complete collapse from us would make it close.
 

DiscoD1882

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We've done incredibly well points-wise this season but, weirdly, our performances have been a marked step down. We've only had a handful of really good performances (Chelsea home, Everton away, Barca away, maybe a couple of others) and have rarely hit the heights of the last 2 seasons.

In 16-17 we had a GD of 60, won 8 games by a 3+ goal margin and were unbeaten at home. Kane scored 4 hat tricks and were it not for some silly draws and Chelsea's back 3/lack of Champions League we would've walked the league. We were an absolute force that season and regularly steamrolled teams.

Last season wasn't as impressive but we still regularly murdered teams and put on great performances. We won 7 games by over 3+ goals and Kane scored 2 hat tricks and 7 braces

This season we've only won 2 games by 3+ goals and there are plenty of games we've won without being anywhere near our best (Fulham x 2, Newcastle x 2, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, Watford, Palace). Kane has only scored more than one goal twice. We've shown great grit, determination and a hell of a lot of character, but rarely blow teams away.

I think our best hope is that when Kane and Alli return something clicks and we start playing our best football again. Surely we're due a run of not just good results but good performances at some point. We need this to coincide with our big away games and maybe, just maybe we can pull off something special when it really matters.
This is symptonmatic of teams realising we are now a force and setting up not contain rather than beat us. I wouldnt read too much into it
 

djee

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Nov 24, 2004
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Top four is as good as done to be honest. Both Chelsea and Arsenal are struggling so badly on the road even a complete collapse from us would make it close.
I agree but both those sides are more than capable of putting together a run and we are not utterly convincing of late.

I do think that the ten-day gap between Dortmund and Burnley is significant and the return of our best attacking players will be a huge boost ahead of the run-in.
 

Everlasting Seconds

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Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
 

Mr Pink

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Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
Wish you were doing our team talks.
 

coys200

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May 22, 2017
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Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
How can you say it’s “nigh impossible “ it’s very plausible we could be 2 pts off after the next matchday. And the last 12 game form table has us top. I think CL could be crucial if we go out to Dortmund and city and Liverpool get to the Semis it definitely swings it in our favour. Liverpool are also one injury away from being out of it. Imo if salah of Vvd get injured they are done.
 

worcestersauce

"I'm no optimist I'm just a prisoner of hope
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Jan 23, 2006
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Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
Good point, people seem to remember the Leicester thing as a neck and neck thing through the season when it was just Leicester and then we pulled away from the pack leaving us the only one they could include in any race and they also forget that we were a bunch of kids and were rank outsiders to even get near the top four, we were as big a surprise as Leicester that season and we were bloody amazing to get as close as we did.
 

JCRD

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Aug 10, 2018
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4,283
Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
Thats the spirit
 
Joined
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Good point, people seem to remember the Leicester thing as a neck and neck thing through the season when it was just Leicester and then we pulled away from the pack leaving us the only one they could include in any race and they also forget that we were a bunch of kids and were rank outsiders to even get near the top four, we were as big a surprise as Leicester that season and we were bloody amazing to get as close as we did.
However we stretch it, we were 2-1 up against the Scum playing 10 men to go top of the league and we blew it. We shoulda, coulda...
 

Everlasting Seconds

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Wish you were doing our team talks.
I don't. Talking up overpaid and under-professional "sportsmen" is not for me.

How can you say it’s “nigh impossible “ it’s very plausible we could be 2 pts off after the next matchday. And the last 12 game form table has us top. I think CL could be crucial if we go out to Dortmund and city and Liverpool get to the Semis it definitely swings it in our favour. Liverpool are also one injury away from being out of it. Imo if salah of Vvd get injured they are done.
There you illustrate my point, really. "If". "Could". "Maybe". "Bla bla bla". Hypothetical assumptions equals extremely low probability.

Good point, people seem to remember the Leicester thing as a neck and neck thing through the season when it was just Leicester and then we pulled away from the pack leaving us the only one they could include in any race and they also forget that we were a bunch of kids and were rank outsiders to even get near the top four, we were as big a surprise as Leicester that season and we were bloody amazing to get as close as we did.
You are absolutely correct, I love where this team has been lately. A consecutive top 4/top3/CL team is an amazing achievement, and it should be celebrated equal to an one-off trophy

Thats the spirit
It's not spirit. It's just facts. Probability is low. At this point. We'll see how it looks in a couple of weeks.

But I will say, the destiny of this years final league standing is all in our own hands. We are reliant on nothing or nobody but ourselves. NOW, THAT'S spirit.
 

Shadydan

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I don't. Talking up overpaid and under-professional "sportsmen" is not for me.


There you illustrate my point, really. "If". "Could". "Maybe". "Bla bla bla". Hypothetical assumptions equals extremely low probability.


You are absolutely correct, I love where this team has been lately. A consecutive top 4/top3/CL team is an amazing achievement, and it should be celebrated equal to an one-off trophy


It's not spirit. It's just facts. Probability is low. At this point. We'll see how it looks in a couple of weeks.

But I will say, the destiny of this years final league standing is all in our own hands. We are reliant on nothing or nobody but ourselves. NOW, THAT'S spirit.
Probability estimations aren't facts.
 

Styopa

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Jan 19, 2014
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1,108
Honestly, the probability of us winning the league is nigh impossible, so let's get that out of the way.

That being said and as a premise, I think this is the closest we have been in recent time to competing for the title. Vs. Leicester I didn't think we were in the title race (as I stated at the time). Vs. Chelsea I emphatically didn't think we were in the title race. We are still not really IN IT, but we haven't been closer TO BE in it, in my mind, in a very long time.

If I now filled you with false optimism, go back to the opening statement of this post.
Although, after 27 matches we were within 2 points of them with the chance to go top after same games played. That could well be closer than we ever get this season:
Played Won Draw Lost Points
1) Leicester 27 16 8 3 56
2) Tottenham 27 15 9 4 54
3) Arsenal 27 15 6 7 51

As mentioned above we could have gone top on GD on match 28 after Leicester drew with West Brom 2-2 (March 1). However we lost to West Ham ( 2 March) and drew with Arsenal (5 March) while Leicester beat Watford 1-0 and extended their lead to 5 points. Our task looks much more difficult this season.
 
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