How the Champions league has affected us this season

[Jenko]

Hey folks, I had a hour spare in work today so put on my statto hat and came up with some figures for how the season might progress. I thought I may as well share them with you all.....

In the last 12 games of last season we won 9 of them and lost 3, giving us 27 pts over 12 games - which was a fantastic run in leaving us finishing the season with 70 pts. We were also in the FA cup (for some of it) last season which was a distraction for sure. The last game of the season we didn't have to win and was one of the 3 losses.

If we were to repeat this form we would finish this season on 74 pts as we have 4 more pts now than this time last year. I think we will need a minimum of 70 pts to get fourth this season as well.

It will be difficult to repeat that form because we don't seem to be playing as well, have a large in jury list and our strikers can't buy a goal. Also, progress in the CL will surely distract the players as there are a lot of games between now and a possible final.

There is a marked difference between our premier league pts tally if you compare games that are adjacent to CL matches and games that aren't....

To prove my point :-

We have played 8 Champions league games this season. 2 against Young Boys and 6 group 1 games.

In the 9 premier league matches played a few days BEFORE each match (I'm including Saturday's match at Sunderland) you could see some players were not as focussed and had one eye on the champions league. We gained 15 pts from those games.

In the 8 premier games played directly after out CL fixtures we gained 14 pts. But we cannot include the win away at Stoke as it was sandwiched in between the 2 Young Boys fixtures and is included as one of the 8 games played before (above). So the stat is 11 pts from 7 games.

That's a total of 26 pts from 16 games, or 1.625 pts average per game.

In the other 10 premier league matches that should have been unaffected by champions league distractions, we gained a total of 21 pts. I did not factor in the other cup competitions as the team was rotated in parts and the players did not seem bothered about these competitions this season, which is why we are out of them and why they should not have affected our focus on the league. That is an average of 2.1 pts per game, a marked improvement.

So that tells me that the CL has indeed had an effect on our premier league form even though the media only focus on the games played afterwards. If we had been able to keep the 2.1 pts per game form up for the 16 CL games we would have gained an extra 7.6 pts already this season and would be sitting 2nd in the league 2 or 3 pts behind ManU.

Now, if we continued with the poorer CL form for the premier league in the last 12 games of the season we would finish the season on 66/67 pts (66.5) which would have meant just missing out on fourth last season. If we continued averaging the better 2.1 pts per game we would finish the season on 72 pts and would keep our 4th spot.

It'll be a hard ask either way but it'll be the silver lining I take from a bad result tonight.....

COYS.

 

[guate]

First off, no need to take a silver lining from tonight's game as we'll do good.
Secondly, last season we seemed to have no problem from our strikers scoring goals, this season we do. If they get their collective act together we might do much better than most of us expect.

 

[midoNdefoe]

First off, no need to take a silver lining from tonight's game as we'll do good.
Secondly, last season we seemed to have no problem from our strikers scoring goals, this season we do. If they get their collective act together we might do much better than most of us expect.

I agree.

We seem to have landed in quite a nice spot considering all our strikers are out of form. If one or two of them start to fire, we will be really motoring...

Crouch to find form tonight i reckon, Milan wont know how to cope with him, and he'll bag 2 in a 3-2 away win.

COYS!!!

 

[dickyid]

So get players used to CL, get the strikers scoring and we'll win the league? Sweet

Great post btw, I do enjoy these stat based posts. Is there any correlation between number of days between CL and next league game, and points gained? Be good to see if it's fatigue that causes poor performance or some sort of mental problem..

 

[elDiablo]

good effort jenko.

maybe the opponents will be a deciding factor, but if we do carry on the CL, i think it would be at the expense of finishing fourth.

last year the reason we finished 4th was due to 9 point haul from home games against arse + chelsea and man city away. This year we have Arse at home, and chelsea, man city, and liverpool away. Very tough, but very wineable. But we will need to win those games to keep that points per game rate high.

 

[spurslad64]

Thanks for the post Jenko.

I think we have a slightly better squad than last season other than VDV who is obviously an exceptional footballer and leader who leads by example, i think a lot of our hard work this season is down to the players seeing him and how determined he is to win.

On that basis i think we could do well in the Prem even if we go further in the Champions league. I dont think it will be a problem.

Its pretty amazing that were fourth in the league with the poorest return from the front men that i can remember, we used to have a problem that the midfield didnt weigh in with enough goals to cover a striking drought but not anymore, its going to get even better when it clicks for Defoe and Crouchy and they start scorring regularly again.

The CL music really gets the nerves jangling with an exciting edge to it, great times.

COYS.

 

[not_tenth-again]

Nice work... but the stat that excites me at the moment is we have Stoke and 4 or the bottom five teams in the next five matches. If we're legit we should be looking at 13 points minimum. Most of the other top 5 or 6 play each other at some stage in that sequence... the doors are opening, let's nick in before the door slams shut

 

[Jenko]

Nice work... but the stat that excites me at the moment is we have Stoke and 4 or the bottom five teams in the next five matches. If we're legit we should be looking at 13 points minimum. Most of the other top 5 or 6 play each other at some stage in that sequence... the doors are opening, let's nick in before the door slams shut

I saw that but then I remembered saying something similar after our 1st game of the season. We had to play stoke, wigan, west brom, wolves and wet spam... I thought we could win them all but we only got 7 pts from those 5 games.

The added problem now is that when playing teams at the bottom at this stage you're going to have to be willing to give 100% because they are fighting for they're survival. Any lapse in effort or focus and we'll get turned over.