AWB

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For £60m I want a full back who can both defend and attack....

This is where the HG rules and the increased TV money are at odds. Just 4-5 years ago we would have "swooped" for Max Aarons and Ben Godfrey. 30-40 million (for both) would have been a massive bid, an amount Norwich couldn't have turned down. Nowadays, with a promoted team's budget set to increase by 160 million, they have zero interest in selling 2 of their top prospects even for 25 million each. Whereas Nice will probably sell the much more accomplished Youcef Atal for much less than AWB will cost. Because they need that money.
 
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This is where the HG rules and the increased TV money are at odds. Just 4-5 years ago we would have "swooped" for Max Aarons and Ben Godfrey. 30-40 million (for both) would have been a massive bid, an amount Norwich couldn't have turned down. Nowadays, with a promoted team's budget set to increase by 160 million, they have zero interest in selling 2 of their top prospects even for 25 million each. Whereas Nice will probably sell the much more accomplished Youcef Atal for much less than AWB will cost. Because they need that money.
That’s why we must invest in young players both in house and from other clubs. A bit like Chelsea have but with more thought behind it. A bit like we did with the young kid the other day.
 

Lilbaz

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But transfer price inflation will make this sort of comparison obsolete soon.
Will it? Premier league spending has been falling. It's peak was summer 2017. Last summer was down. Last january it was 66% lower than the previous jan window. The domestic tv rights have flatlined and will most likely fall.

Clubs are pricing players out of the market, so players are simply running contracts down and leaving on free transfers.

We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment. It may burst very soon.
 

Ron Burgundy

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Will it? Premier league spending has been falling. It's peak was summer 2017. Last summer was down. Last january it was 66% lower than the previous jan window. The domestic tv rights have flatlined and will most likely fall.

Clubs are pricing players out of the market, so players are simply running contracts down and leaving on free transfers.

We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment. It may burst very soon.
Aggregate spending isn't the right metric - it should be apples to apples: How much would player X have gone for in prior markets.

As for being a bubble, that's only going to be the case if the money coming into football clubs starts to shrink. At the moment, the investment in the industry keeps going up (sponsorship, TV rights, ticket prices etc.) and as such, the assets which drive it (i.e. players) are going to increase as well.

You could argue about the rate of increase, sure (I wouldn't have a clue personally) but I think it's an over simplification to suggest it's a bubble that will inevitably 'burst'. At worst, you'd likely see some form of correction - what's the likelihood of prices (for instance) halving? Almost zero IMO
 

Lilbaz

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Aggregate spending isn't the right metric - it should be apples to apples: How much would player X have gone for in prior markets.

As for being a bubble, that's only going to be the case if the money coming into football clubs starts to shrink. At the moment, the investment in the industry keeps going up (sponsorship, TV rights, ticket prices etc.) and as such, the assets which drive it (i.e. players) are going to increase as well.

You could argue about the rate of increase, sure (I wouldn't have a clue personally) but I think it's an over simplification to suggest it's a bubble that will inevitably 'burst'. At worst, you'd likely see some form of correction - what's the likelihood of prices (for instance) halving? Almost zero IMO
So if more and more players start running their contracts down and the tv rights fall, this wont have an effect?

I never said that it was inevitable the bubble will burst. I'm just saying it's a possibility.

More importantly, levy believes transfer prices are in a bubble and unsustainable. He said as much.
 
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Will it? Premier league spending has been falling. It's peak was summer 2017. Last summer was down. Last january it was 66% lower than the previous jan window. The domestic tv rights have flatlined and will most likely fall.

Clubs are pricing players out of the market, so players are simply running contracts down and leaving on free transfers.

We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment. It may burst very soon.
Don’t really see that TBH, we could wait 20 years and not have a crash, admittedly I would be surprised if it inflated much more but I don’t see it crashing.

The TV money and everything else now means the smaller clubs are no longer cash strapped and desperate to sell thus can say pay this or go elsewhere and even with domestic TV you have international TV as well and the prem is prime viewing.
 

Ron Burgundy

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So if more and more players start running their contracts down
This wouldn't change the net cash position in the industry, so no. It might change the behaviour - players being sold with two years left becomes the norm, longer contracts etc. - but it shouldn't impact asset value

and the tv rights fall, this wont have an effect?
Of course that would have an effect, I even referenced it - but I don't believe the money coming into the industry is falling. It's still going up isn't it?

I never said that it was inevitable the bubble will burst. I'm just saying it's a possibility.
It's really not a big deal so I see little need to be pedantic about it, but you were very clear that we're in a bubble:

"We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment"

...the only element of uncertainty you set out (bearing in mind that the only trueism of a bubble is that it bursts) was timing

"It may burst very soon. "

More importantly, levy believes transfer prices are in a bubble and unsustainable. He said as much.
That may be more important to our actions this summer, but he's been shown - time and time again - to have underestimated the rate of increase in the transfer market.

He's a shrewd guy, but if he'd shown more aggression (and I recognise there's a balance, of course) in the transfer market, we'd be a richer club, and possibly a more successful one
 

Cinemattis

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£60M for a fullback?! Wow - do we have a timemachine and are we getting Paolo Maldini in his prime?! :woot:

:eek:Oh...it´s Wan-Bissaka from bleedin´ Palace with one - ONE - full season in the PL.o_O

The market is absolutely insane.:facepalm::greedy::inpain::banghead:
 

Lilbaz

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This wouldn't change the net cash position in the industry, so no. It might change the behaviour - players being sold with two years left becomes the norm, longer contracts etc. - but it shouldn't impact asset value



Of course that would have an effect, I even referenced it - but I don't believe the money coming into the industry is falling. It's still going up isn't it?



It's really not a big deal so I see little need to be pedantic about it, but you were very clear that we're in a bubble:

"We are in a transfer price bubble at the moment"

...the only element of uncertainty you set out (bearing in mind that the only trueism of a bubble is that it bursts) was timing

"It may burst very soon. "



That may be more important to our actions this summer, but he's been shown - time and time again - to have underestimated the rate of increase in the transfer market.

He's a shrewd guy, but if he'd shown more aggression (and I recognise there's a balance, of course) in the transfer market, we'd be a richer club, and possibly a more successful one
My whole point was questioning rawhides ascertation that transfer inflation will mean that spending £40-60m on awb is reasonable. He may well be right but there is a strong possibility that the bubble will burst.
We've seen that transfer spending by premier league clubs is falling.

Either way we have to be careful. We spent more on bentley than eriksen. More on dean richards than bale. More on andy sinton than dele. Transfer inflation doesn't mean you are getting value.

We'll see.
 
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£60M for a fullback?! Wow - do we have a timemachine and are we getting Paolo Maldini in his prime?! :woot:

:eek:Oh...it´s Wan-Bissaka from bleedin´ Palace with one - ONE - full season in the PL.o_O

The market is absolutely insane.:facepalm::greedy::inpain::banghead:

Absolutely agree. But it is simple supply and demand. Palace don't NEED 20-40 million, AWB playing for them is just worth so much more. 60 million is the LEAST I would demand if I were them. That is the kind of amount with which they could actually start investing in improving their squad.
 

Ron Burgundy

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My whole point was questioning rawhides ascertation that transfer inflation will mean that spending £40-60m on awb is reasonable. He may well be right but there is a strong possibility that the bubble will burst.
We've seen that transfer spending by premier league clubs is falling.

Either way we have to be careful. We spent more on bentley than eriksen. More on dean richards than bale. More on andy sinton than dele. Transfer inflation doesn't mean you are getting value.

We'll see.
Indeed - what I would say is that what you've highlighted is more examples of where we've bought well vs. badly

If AWB goes on to become a very good player (not even excellent), then £60m will look fine.

If Van Dijk hadn't been so good, people would moan about being over priced. Opposite goes for Keita. In a rising market, it's all about performance post purchase.

The swing factor here is how the player develops, and in this instance, being 21 he'd have to be bad for us to take a total bath on the guy - I'm actually more concerned with the opportunity cost it presents: does it stop us getting more important players? Does it stop us investing in another right back who could turn out better (and be cheaper)? etc. etc.

So really it comes down to how well they do
 

rawhide

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Thread starter #215
My whole point was questioning rawhides ascertation that transfer inflation will mean that spending £40-60m on awb is reasonable. He may well be right but there is a strong possibility that the bubble will burst.
We've seen that transfer spending by premier league clubs is falling.

Either way we have to be careful. We spent more on bentley than eriksen. More on dean richards than bale. More on andy sinton than dele. Transfer inflation doesn't mean you are getting value.

We'll see.
I’m pretty sure I didn’t say anything of the sort...

I made the observation that transfer prices are heading upwards, meaning comparisons to historic prices will largely become pointless.

It’s easy to point out that in recent times we’ve spent more on a central defender than any other position, because it was one of the most recent ones.

We bought Toby for around £14-15m. Do you think we could get an established centre back for this much nowadays? Similarly we bought Eriksen for around £12m - no way you’re getting a like for like at that price. In fact, Aurier cost around as much as both of them combined.

Prices are increasing. Whether we are willing to pay them is another thing altogether.
 

doctor stefan Freud

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I love it when more economically intelligent people than me have well reasoned, insightful debates. It’s like being a child again ears dropping on your parents talking about grown up stuff that simultaneously interests and bores you
 
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Where is this coming from that AWB has nothing in attack? He was a winger in the youth system and had three assists in a setup that rarely allowed him to get forward, in his first year as a starter. By contrast, Andy Robertson's 11 assist season for Pool came after he had 5 last year in his first season with Pool and 2 in 33 starts for an awful Hull side in 16/17. AWB has all the tools to develop into a top attacking fullback while, at the same time, possessing rare physical talent to be a dominant defensive player. He's absolutely worth as much or more as Ben Mendy in my view, considering the HG talent premium. There are very few things in life that would bring me more happiness this summer than us signing AWB, even for 50 or 55 million, and partly-funding the deal by selling Trippier to MUFC.
 

C0YS

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£60M for a fullback?! Wow - do we have a timemachine and are we getting Paolo Maldini in his prime?! :woot:

:eek:Oh...it´s Wan-Bissaka from bleedin´ Palace with one - ONE - full season in the PL.o_O

The market is absolutely insane.:facepalm::greedy::inpain::banghead:
it's about time we realised this. This just is the modern market
 

DJS

A hunter must hunt...
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Dec 9, 2006
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Uh oh Man Yooooo are starting to throw money at Palace.

Can’t see us offering more I’m afraid as Man U are probably gonna be throwing silly money at their problems this summer in an attempt to fix tings.
 
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