[pdf]

I’ve been wondering for a while where our Champions League qualifying match might take us and been confused by comments from others saying “we can’t play X they are seeded”.

After an hour of trying to comprehend the situation, my understanding is that we could almost definitely () be playing Sampdoria or Auxerre and, if other qualifying games go according to schedule (bookies odds), the other three ‘probables’ are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv and Braga (Portugal).

Who we will play is determined by UEFA seeding coefficients (see www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2010.html) and the results of five qualifying games (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2...ampions_League).

Five teams, including Spurs (seeding coefficient 56.4; plus Sevilla 108.9, Werder Bremen 94.8, Sampdoria 30.9 and Auxerre 19.8), are automatically into the final qualifying round and awaiting the outcome of five matches between ten other teams that qualified as non-champions through previous rounds, these games take place on 27/28 July and 4 August.

The five games and the seeding coefficients and bookies favourites (asterisk) are:-
Ajax 55.3* vs PAOK 11.5
Dynamo Kyiv 42.9 * vs Gent 6.6
Young Boys 7.7 vs Fernabache 54.9*
Braga 39.7* vs Celtic 38.2
Unirea Urziceni 18.9 vs Zenit St Petersburg 61.3*

The draw for our qualifying round takes place on August 6. Before the draw Spurs and the four other automatic qualifiers; plus the five winners of the above matches will be ranked/sorted according to their seeding coefficient (that’s why the seeding numbers are provided above). At that point the top five are seeded and cannot play each other. Spurs, Sevilla and Werder Bremen have such high seeding coefficients that they are assured of being seeded.

My guess is that the five seeded teams will be Spurs, Sevilla, Werder Bremen, Zenit St Petersburg and Ajax. The five teams I predict they will be drawn against are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv, Braga, Sampdoria and Auxerre. According to bookies odds the best of these to be drawn against (to win and go through to the group stage) are Braga and Auxerre. The team to avoid will be Sampdoria.

So pack your bags and get ready for a European tour to Italy or France or Ukraine or Turkey or Portugal

I will probably be wrong, so the seeding numbers above should help anyone to update the possibilities after the five qualifying games have taken place.

[guate]

Thanks pdf for all your leg work. We now have enough ability and technical nous to do a great job against any of the other teams mentioned.
Let the games commence.

QUE VIVA LOS SPURS

[Lilbaz]

Wouldn't Inter winning the CL shove Sampdorias points up?

This whole seeding thing gets me really confused

[ExpatFan]

Originally Posted by pdf

I’ve been wondering for a while where our Champions League qualifying match might take us and been confused by comments from others saying “we can’t play X they are seeded”.

After an hour of trying to comprehend the situation, my understanding is that we could almost definitely () be playing Sampdoria or Auxerre and, if other qualifying games go according to schedule (bookies odds), the other three ‘probables’ are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv and Braga (Portugal).

Who we will play is determined by UEFA seeding coefficients (see www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2010.html) and the results of five qualifying games (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2...ampions_League).

Five teams, including Spurs (seeding coefficient 56.4; plus Sevilla 108.9, Werder Bremen 94.8, Sampdoria 30.9 and Auxerre 19.8), are automatically into the final qualifying round and awaiting the outcome of five matches between ten other teams that qualified as non-champions through previous rounds, these games take place on 27/28 July and 4 August.

The five games and the seeding coefficients and bookies favourites (asterisk) are:-
Ajax 55.3* vs PAOK 11.5
Dynamo Kyiv 42.9 * vs Gent 6.6
Young Boys 7.7 vs Fernabache 54.9*
Braga 39.7* vs Celtic 38.2
Unirea Urziceni 18.9 vs Zenit St Petersburg 61.3*

The draw for our qualifying round takes place on August 6. Before the draw Spurs and the four other automatic qualifiers; plus the five winners of the above matches will be ranked/sorted according to their seeding coefficient (that’s why the seeding numbers are provided above). At that point the top five are seeded and cannot play each other. Spurs, Sevilla and Werder Bremen have such high seeding coefficients that they are assured of being seeded.

My guess is that the five seeded teams will be Spurs, Sevilla, Werder Bremen, Zenit St Petersburg and Ajax. The five teams I predict they will be drawn against are Fernabache, Dynamo Kyiv, Braga, Sampdoria and Auxerre. According to bookies odds the best of these to be drawn against (to win and go through to the group stage) are Braga and Auxerre. The team to avoid will be Sampdoria.

So pack your bags and get ready for a European tour to Italy or France or Ukraine or Turkey or Portugal

I will probably be wrong, so the seeding numbers above should help anyone to update the possibilities after the five qualifying games have taken place.

Looks like you've come to the same conclusion I did last week:

http://www.spurscommunity.co.uk/foru...ad.php?t=62230

Cheers.

[JimmyG2]

What was all that 'luck of the draw' stuff I was brought up on?
I tell you what I'm gonna do: take your word for it.

Thanks man. If you want something doing properly, get in an expert I always say.

[ero1x]

It's gonna be real tough whoever we draw.

[fatspur]

think you will find there are 15 3rd qualifying round ties. The winners of thes 15 matches will go into the play offs with the 5 teams you list. Don't know whether all 10 play-off ties are seeded, but whatever there are plenty of other opponents avaialble: check http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionslea...nts/index.html and http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionslea...hes/index.html

[StuckinPoland]

Originally Posted by fatspur

think you will find there are 15 3rd qualifying round ties. The winners of thes 15 matches will go into the play offs with the 5 teams you list. Don't know whether all 10 play-off ties are seeded, but whatever there are plenty of other opponents avaialble: check http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionslea...nts/index.html and http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionslea...hes/index.html

there are 15 matches. that's true. but 10 of those matches are what's known as the Champions path. That's 20 teams. These teams were all champions of their own league.

Obviously, due to the fact we finished 4th in the league, we are in the Non-Champions path. So the team we can play has to come from the other 5 matches (10 teams) because none of them won their league.

The idea to have two separate "pathways" was Platini's. The idea being that it would give a better chance of CL group stage qualification to those teams from smaller countries who actually won their domestic league. And not to those "also rans" from bigger leagues.

I like the idea. Spread the wealth.

[fatspur]

Originally Posted by StuckinPoland

there are 15 matches. that's true. but 10 of those matches are what's known as the Champions path. That's 20 teams. These teams were all champions of their own league.

Obviously, due to the fact we finished 4th in the league, we are in the Non-Champions path. So the team we can play has to come from the other 5 matches (10 teams) because none of them won their league.

The idea to have two separate "pathways" was Platini's. The idea being that it would give a better chance of CL group stage qualification to those teams from smaller countries who actually won their domestic league. And not to those "also rans" from bigger leagues.

I like the idea. Spread the wealth.

right ... the penny has fanally dropped for me. Roll on Aug 6th and keep fingers crossed

[DeanoD]

Pardon my ignorance but where does it leave us in terms of European competition if we lose our Champions League Qualifier?

[Byron]

Originally Posted by DeanoD

Pardon my ignorance but where does it leave us in terms of European competition if we lose our Champions League Qualifier?

Europa i believe, not out of it like your worried about!

[DeanoD]

Yeah I thought that would be the case, just wasn't sure whether we would have to play a qualifier for Europa or not!

[cwy21]

If we win we go into Champions League group stage, if we lose we go into Europa League group stage. Either way we're guaranteed 8 games in Europe.

[pdf]

Originally Posted by cwy21

If we win we go into Champions League group stage, if we lose we go into Europa League group stage. Either way we're guaranteed 8 games in Europe.

Let's not even go there . But for the others that will not qualify and drop into the Europa League. They will have six games in the Europa group stage between 16th September and 16th December.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2..._Europa_League

[Randall Flagg]

When Everton got knocked in CL qualfying I remember them also getting knocked out in UEFA Cup qualifying...